The NQ has been the Laggard to the Downside.
A break of Big 7 was required to indicate the Validity
of the Bearish Engulfing Candle.
APPL
MSFT
AMZN
GOOGA
GOOGL
TSLA
NVDA
All began to Sell on NYSE Open Friday, a shortened Day with
Volumes Sub Par.
_______________________________________________________
With Crude Oil absolutely being SOLD during the Globex Session once
the 24 O/N Session got going, it was clear we were in store for Lower
Prices.
Crude saw its 7th Largest decline - $10
The YM Confirmed the Reversal of the Trend with a +1100 Point decline.
Crypto declined.
Bonds became the Flight to safety Bid.
The Dollar Pulled Back.
Financial and Small Caps faced steep declines.
Breadth - Overall Breadth was unwell. We see many NYSE COMP Companies
down 50% - 60% from Highs. The NYSE Composite along with Crude Oil and the
Dow all provided a very large indication all was not well.
__________________________________________________________
Rate sensitivity for the NQ broke, as ZN ZB TLT all managed to be Bid out
of 8 AM EST causing the Dollar to retrace.
The math continues to grow more horrific in Bonds.
1.55% against a Real Inflation Rate (Adjusted 1980 Methodology) of 10.12%.
Decidedly low - by my Fuzzy math and data it is currently 17.34%.
For the purposes of the Bond Edifice, we'll use 10% and apply the adjustment
to the 10 Year Note.
9.45% assured LOSS every Year for holding the 10 Year Note.
7.99% assured LOSS every Year for holding the TLT 20 Year ETF.
8.02% assured LOSS every Year for holding the 30 Year Bond.
Pristine Wall Paper:
1 - 6 Month T-Bills - 9.95% assured LOSS.
This is the Win / Win Bond Hodlers assume will work itself out.
It will not.
YCC crosses the Rubicom. There is no turning back from this event.
The Republic goes Full Banana - Dirty Monkey.
__________________________________________________________
NQ is now on its own once again, at the Mercy of Jumbos, BlackRock
and VanGuard.
Delta Hedging has moved the VX Complex as large Bids to Protection
were initiated, there is nowhere else to hide, and these Instruments
were inhaled Whoelsale.
Thye took the VX Curve down into Settel and reversed thereafter, getting
their lower fills and quickly seeing 50%+ Gains on Protection.
Those offsides on VX who were selling Calls for income were wiped out -
this story is simply beginning.
All those off0sides on Bonds... Enormous losses.
"Stuff" had to be sold to offset in order to square losses and correct
imbalances in Margin. In this environment, SELLING begets further Selling.
Months of Gamma Levered Bets reversed, the final stages of the Blow Off
were completing as few actually wanted to Buy the Underlying, instead, the
Jumbos levered up - took gains and left everyone else Bag Holding.
The Fed was Mute - this unwind can continue for a few weeks, 2 to 3 at
minimum into the December FOMC.
We will see how it is all managed as it can turn sharply downward until
there is an assurance of a Back Stop from Jerry and the Kids at 33 Liberty.
Dissension has been growing at the FED with more than one half of BOG
indicating the Taper and Rate Cycle should begin sooner as opposed to later.
A panic selloff after the FSR could change up their Plans.
Every Bank from BOA to APM to CITI indicated assets are 20% to 50% overvalued
under certain Conditions. Mutations perhaps... who knows.
The Covid Cycle of abuse is quite clear.
_______________________________________________________________
This Week will be instructional.
It is difficult to imagine Margin Selling not encouraging further Selling. We have
barely begin to see the Cascade in Margin.
How dramatic this Sell Off becomes, will be determined this week.
Crude Oil can now trade down to 65 and then 60$.
We are going to reposition our Biotech and move back to Cash as quickly as possible.
It seems nothing will be spared and there are just a few Instruments in which to
find safety beyond CASH.
They are the cyclical winners which ... eventually are sold to cover losses on Margin.
________________________________________________________________
We will look at the 1 Hour Timeframe and review the Indications.
The Daily SMAs tend to provide support at the 34, with a potential Retreafement to the
21 SMA.
If this Fails it will be a very quick trip to the 89 / 144 and potentially the 377 SMA in a
few short weeks.
This will be another chart as Clutter tends to compound if too much Data is within
one chart.
For now, the Structure Count Indicated 8/8 to the Downside.
A break of Big 7 was required to indicate the Validity
of the Bearish Engulfing Candle.
APPL
MSFT
AMZN
GOOGA
GOOGL
TSLA
NVDA
All began to Sell on NYSE Open Friday, a shortened Day with
Volumes Sub Par.
_______________________________________________________
With Crude Oil absolutely being SOLD during the Globex Session once
the 24 O/N Session got going, it was clear we were in store for Lower
Prices.
Crude saw its 7th Largest decline - $10
The YM Confirmed the Reversal of the Trend with a +1100 Point decline.
Crypto declined.
Bonds became the Flight to safety Bid.
The Dollar Pulled Back.
Financial and Small Caps faced steep declines.
Breadth - Overall Breadth was unwell. We see many NYSE COMP Companies
down 50% - 60% from Highs. The NYSE Composite along with Crude Oil and the
Dow all provided a very large indication all was not well.
__________________________________________________________
Rate sensitivity for the NQ broke, as ZN ZB TLT all managed to be Bid out
of 8 AM EST causing the Dollar to retrace.
The math continues to grow more horrific in Bonds.
1.55% against a Real Inflation Rate (Adjusted 1980 Methodology) of 10.12%.
Decidedly low - by my Fuzzy math and data it is currently 17.34%.
For the purposes of the Bond Edifice, we'll use 10% and apply the adjustment
to the 10 Year Note.
9.45% assured LOSS every Year for holding the 10 Year Note.
7.99% assured LOSS every Year for holding the TLT 20 Year ETF.
8.02% assured LOSS every Year for holding the 30 Year Bond.
Pristine Wall Paper:
1 - 6 Month T-Bills - 9.95% assured LOSS.
This is the Win / Win Bond Hodlers assume will work itself out.
It will not.
YCC crosses the Rubicom. There is no turning back from this event.
The Republic goes Full Banana - Dirty Monkey.
__________________________________________________________
NQ is now on its own once again, at the Mercy of Jumbos, BlackRock
and VanGuard.
Delta Hedging has moved the VX Complex as large Bids to Protection
were initiated, there is nowhere else to hide, and these Instruments
were inhaled Whoelsale.
Thye took the VX Curve down into Settel and reversed thereafter, getting
their lower fills and quickly seeing 50%+ Gains on Protection.
Those offsides on VX who were selling Calls for income were wiped out -
this story is simply beginning.
All those off0sides on Bonds... Enormous losses.
"Stuff" had to be sold to offset in order to square losses and correct
imbalances in Margin. In this environment, SELLING begets further Selling.
Months of Gamma Levered Bets reversed, the final stages of the Blow Off
were completing as few actually wanted to Buy the Underlying, instead, the
Jumbos levered up - took gains and left everyone else Bag Holding.
The Fed was Mute - this unwind can continue for a few weeks, 2 to 3 at
minimum into the December FOMC.
We will see how it is all managed as it can turn sharply downward until
there is an assurance of a Back Stop from Jerry and the Kids at 33 Liberty.
Dissension has been growing at the FED with more than one half of BOG
indicating the Taper and Rate Cycle should begin sooner as opposed to later.
A panic selloff after the FSR could change up their Plans.
Every Bank from BOA to APM to CITI indicated assets are 20% to 50% overvalued
under certain Conditions. Mutations perhaps... who knows.
The Covid Cycle of abuse is quite clear.
_______________________________________________________________
This Week will be instructional.
It is difficult to imagine Margin Selling not encouraging further Selling. We have
barely begin to see the Cascade in Margin.
How dramatic this Sell Off becomes, will be determined this week.
Crude Oil can now trade down to 65 and then 60$.
We are going to reposition our Biotech and move back to Cash as quickly as possible.
It seems nothing will be spared and there are just a few Instruments in which to
find safety beyond CASH.
They are the cyclical winners which ... eventually are sold to cover losses on Margin.
________________________________________________________________
We will look at the 1 Hour Timeframe and review the Indications.
The Daily SMAs tend to provide support at the 34, with a potential Retreafement to the
21 SMA.
If this Fails it will be a very quick trip to the 89 / 144 and potentially the 377 SMA in a
few short weeks.
This will be another chart as Clutter tends to compound if too much Data is within
one chart.
For now, the Structure Count Indicated 8/8 to the Downside.