SteveTobin

Planning for the Bank of Canada Rate Decision trading v NZD

FX:NZDCAD   New Zealand Dollar/Canadian Dollar
Later today the Bank of Canada will announce its latest interest rate decision. The probability of a rate hike is greater than 90% (according to overnight swaps) so we can almost guarantee such a move, the economic data out of Canada has been quite poor in recent months and this must have had an effect on the banks thinking. The last statement we had was very bullish talking up the possibility of more rate hikes which was in stark contrast to the news from the Royal Bank of New Zeland which suggested a rate cut was as likely as a rate hike. This puts the two currencies at different ends of the spectrum and has brought the price to an interesting technical juncture, NZDCAD has been in an upward move guided by the orange trendline for 6 years currently the trendline is under threat again. I always assume the trend is going to continue so have the count pointing higher. If the Bank of Canada fail to cut or their language turns more bearish I think the NZDCAD can rise quickly reversing the impulsive looking decline from the 19th of June, stochastics and RSI would appear to support this view. Should the decision go the other way and they go through with the cut and have language suggesting more cuts are in the pipeline then the orange trendline will most likely break suggesting the cycle higher is complete and we can accept materially lower prices. The lower price view also has technical merit , since the high in November 2016 we have had two lower highs and a lower low which implies that a bearish sequence is in place.

The great news on this trade is that we will get clarity at a set point, the bank will either raise rates or they will not, their language will suggest more rate hikes or it will not. Good technicals and a clear decision on fundamentals what more could a trader ask for?
I will be risking 2% on this trade and will be looking for a risk reward of 5:1 considering the cleat nature of what lies ahead.
Trade active: Took the short trade when the rate cut went ahead, added to it during the press conference, stop-loss moved to break even on the first half. Need a break below 0.88 to confirm a change to a bearish count but it seems to have potential.
Trade closed manually: closing trade at 0.8630 for 275 pips. Will look to re-enter on the next bounce but momentum indicators suggest a turn higher is expected around this area

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