NZD/CHF is consolidating in this wedge pattern and has so far failed to break out to the upside. Todays daily candle is bearish in my opinion and could represent a top.
It needs to break below and close below .5430. After that it should target all time lows (Blue horizontal line) and trade to new all time lows.
This is where things get interesting and potentially volatile.
Notce the red and black lines down at the psychologically important level of .50. The red line is a long term trend line (see pic below) that has not been tested yet.
The black horizontal line at .49654 is the level that represents 3 standard deviations below the mean from a standard distribution of returns of Monthly NZD/CHF data going back to 1990. So it is fairly robust data.
If we trade all the way down below .50 to .4564 in the month of July there is a 99.5% chance it will close above that level by the end of the month. So it is a great place to go long
Substantial volatility would have to arise in order for this pair to make its way down there this month so this is a lower probability outcome but I do expect this pair to at least test all time lows by the end of the year
It needs to break below and close below .5430. After that it should target all time lows (Blue horizontal line) and trade to new all time lows.
This is where things get interesting and potentially volatile.
Notce the red and black lines down at the psychologically important level of .50. The red line is a long term trend line (see pic below) that has not been tested yet.
The black horizontal line at .49654 is the level that represents 3 standard deviations below the mean from a standard distribution of returns of Monthly NZD/CHF data going back to 1990. So it is fairly robust data.
If we trade all the way down below .50 to .4564 in the month of July there is a 99.5% chance it will close above that level by the end of the month. So it is a great place to go long
Substantial volatility would have to arise in order for this pair to make its way down there this month so this is a lower probability outcome but I do expect this pair to at least test all time lows by the end of the year