DayFarrell
Short

NZDUSD FEW REASONS TO SHORT

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
OK I MUST START BY SAYING THAT WHEN A CHART IS POSTED BY ANYONE WITH A PARTICULAR TARGET, IT IS BASED ON THE REVERSAL POINT THAT WAS SET PRIOR. SO IF I SET MY REVERSAL TO 5 ON A SHORT WITH A 61.8 TARGET, AND THE MARKET GOES FURTHER DOWN TO 3, YOU MUST BE SMART ENOUGH TO KNOW THAT YOU MUST ADJUST YOUR RETRACEMENT TOOL TO 3 TO GET A MORE ACCURATE TARGET. IF YOU ARE NOT AWARE OF THAT I'D ADVICE YOU DO A BIT MORE TRAINING , AND THE BEST PLACE I CAN RECOMMEND FOR YOU TO BECOME A MORE PROFITABLE TRADER IN A VERY SHORT TIME, TRADEEMPOWERED.COM. (NOT GETTING PAID TO SAY THAT, NEITHER HAVE I DONE A COURSE WITH THEM, BUT I FOLLOW THEIR TRADE METHOD AND ITS SIMPLE STRAIGHT FORWARD AND VERY PROFITABLE)

BACK TO THE CHART. :)
THE FIRST THING I MUST MENTION IS THE FLAG THAT IS BASED ON THE MAJOR TREND. FLAGS ARE CONTINUATION PATTERNS, MEANING AFTER THE FLAG IS COMPLETED IT WILL BREAK OUT AND CONTINUE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MAJOR TREND, WHICH IN THIS CASE IS DOWNWARDS. THE CURRENT FLAG IS VERY MATURE AND READY FOR DELIVERY.
WE ARE STARTING AT 50/50 CHANCE OF UP AND DOWN AS ALL MARKETS ARE, SO WE ARE GOING TO ADD 10% FOR EACH TIME WE GET A DIRECTIONAL BIAS (A LITTLE TRICK I OBSERVE FROM TRADEEMPOWERED, IS WHY I HAVE TO GIVE A PLUS TO THEM). SO THE FLAG GIVES US A PLUS 10%.

THE NEXT STRUCTURE OF INTEREST IS THE H&S (HEAD AND SHOULDER) PATTERN THAT HAS FORMED AT THE END OF THE FLAG (OUR CURRENT STRUCTURE) AND AS MENTIONED BEFORE, H&S ARE REVERSAL PATTERNS. THIS H&S IS BASED ON THE UPWARD DIRECTION OF THE FLAG SO A REVERSAL WOULD MEAN A MOVE DOWNWARDS, WHICH PUTS US IN SYNC WITH THE FLAG, SO WE CAN ADD ANOTHER 10% DIRECTIONAL BIAS.

WE ALSO HAVE A PATTERN IN IN THE HEAD OF THE H&S WHICH WE ARE AWAITING COMPLETION BETWEEN 38.2 AND 50% BASE ON MOMENTUM . AND WE ALSO HAVE AN ABCD PATTERN WITHIN THIS STRUCTURE WHICH WE CAN GIVE A 5%DIRECTIONAL BIAS. BRINGS US TO A TOTAL OF 85% BIAS BEAR , 15% BULL .

ANOTHER METHOD I TEND TO USED TO GET A MORE ACCURATE REVERSAL POINT IS AN EMA. IT WORKS FOR ME DURING REVERSALS. I USE AN 8,13,21,34 FIB ADDED TOGETHER THEN I MULTIPLY THE TOTAL BY .382, .50, AND .618 TO GET A MOVING FIB TARGET, BECAUSE DURING REVERSALS, THE MARKET DON'T ALWAYS GO TO THE FIXED REVERSAL POINT, BUT YOU WILL NOTICE IT WILL TOUCH THE MOVING POINT. (THIS ONLY WORKS FOR ME DURING REVERSALS SUCH AS THIS).
THE MARKET IS CURRENTLY AT 38.2 AND APPEARS TO BE REVERSING BUT I WILL STILL WAIT FOR MY ENTRY, AS I SAID BEFORE, I PREFER TO GET MY ENTRY RATHER THAN JUMP IN TOO EARLY.
ALSO PLEASE, MY STOPS ARE MY STOPS, YOUR STOPS ARE YOUR STOPS :) IT'S BETTER TO AIM TO MAKE LESS AND HAVE A WIDE STOP THAN FOLLOW ME WITH TIGHT STOPS, SO PLEASE SET YOUR OWN.
FEEL FREE TO TELL ME WHAT YOU THINK, I'VE BEEN TRYING TO FIND A REASON FOR A LONG BIAS, BUT NOT SEEING ANY.
I WISH YOU MUCH SUCCESS WITH YOUR TRADES HAVE A GREAT DAY!
Olu
2 years ago
I am biased to the short side as well
+1 Reply
DayFarrell
2 years ago
still waiting for confirmed reversal, still seeing some more upside
Reply
Olu DayFarrell
2 years ago
Might be today. Price put in a doji on the 4h today
+1 Reply
DayFarrell Olu
2 years ago
yes you just might be right, i just spot it now that you mention, but i got in at what i consider a strong resistance zone at 7950, and luckily, it worked thus far, i took the chance so that by tomor, if things go in the opposite direction i can get break even.
Reply
Olu DayFarrell
2 years ago
Well done on your action there. Hope it works out. I have a new short
Reply
DayFarrell Olu
2 years ago
what's the new short?
Reply
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