DanV
Long

NZDUSD - LONGER TERM BULLISH PLAY AS KIWI MIGHT FLY.

FX_IDC:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
There are wide spread negative views for most USD pairs on the basis that FED might raise rates at some stage which would support USD strength. In the light of this it seems impossible for NZDUSD             to form low in this area.

I admit that I could be completely wrong and if so will not have to wait to find out.

However, looking at the KIWI chart on Monthly, supports the view based on my interpretation of Elliott Wave Principle that we could be close to forming a major low and that NZDUSD             could move up to retest 2014 high or most likely make a new higher high in the proximity of 0.93 -0.95 (See Monthly Chart)

Summary of Technicals:

1. Since 1985 low, it appears that we are in expanded Flat Correction of previous decline. Wave A and B are of 3 swings each therefore based on EW principles Wave C should be of 5 waves.
2. If correct the we are progressing in wave C which commenced from 2000 low.
3. Wave C could be in the form of Ending Diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3 construction of which we could have waves 1, 2, 3 complete and now wave 4 almost appear to be complete or is likely to very soon.
(Please see Monthly chart below for 1 -3 above)
4. Using the daily chart we note that the decline from 2014 high has been in abc             zizgag of which wave c is expanding ending diagonal also of 3-3-3-3-3 construction with confluence of several fib ratios as noted in the chart.
5. We have clear RSI divergence noted both in monthly - daily time frame charts.
6 We have retraced approximately 66.67% of 2009             low to 2014 high ( Gann percentage which equates to 2/3rd)

Hence, I will be on the look out on H4 charts for confirmation to consider long trade in this area or little lower.

Please Note:
The schematic price path shown on the chart is only an outline of anticipated directional move and not necessarily the exact highs and lows.

This is a very long term play and it would be absolutely normal for retracement along the way and sharp bounce would not necessarily alter the overall price path anticipated. This would offer shorter term swing trades in both direction.

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share it for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
http://www.danv-charting.com
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NZDUSD: Interesting contrarian point of view


Similar view, top in usdnzd is near...I can smell it.
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
(and gold already bottomed I would say - at least for now)
+1 Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
Yes indeed I seem to think that Gold has bottomed as has AU probably and NZD should soon follow. With this chart overall for major trend or analysis on monthly time frame.
snapshot
+1 Reply
I agree here, looks to be a corrective decline.
The fx_idc data makes it crystal clear.
My projected bottom should be a great long opportunity. I'll be watching it closely.
Getting in on wave 2 should be nice IF we're right here.
+1 Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
Yes indeed. Based on my chart it will be wxy zizgag for wave 5 of ending diagonal.
+1 Reply
Dan, would like to hear what you think here...I don't think eurnzd can continue to move up if nzdusd goes up, not for long at least.

EURNZD: Multidisciplinary approach
+1 Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
Agree. Might make it to 1.62 previous resistance otherwise retracement is in order.
snapshot
+1 Reply
Just a quick note: After tonight's event, I will have to review this chart and will have to republish the update. Though for now it might not alter the larger time frame analysis.

Could this gap be exhaustion gap? Will review and post update in few days time.
+1 Reply
I would prefer to buy at about 0.69 where is 50 fib of good impulse on W chart.
Reply
Yes I can understand that. If we get spike or extension then we might see that level. But if not then any confirmation of reversal would be helpful.

But in the zone. Thanks for your comment.
+1 Reply
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