DanV
Long

NZDUSD - LONGER TERM BULLISH PLAY AS KIWI MIGHT FLY.

FX_IDC:NZDUSD   NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR / US DOLLAR
There are wide spread negative views for most USD pairs on the basis that FED might raise rates at some stage which would support USD strength. In the light of this it seems impossible for NZDUSD             to form low in this area.

I admit that I could be completely wrong and if so will not have to wait to find out.

However, looking at the KIWI chart on Monthly, supports the view based on my interpretation of Elliott Wave Principle that we could be close to forming a major low and that NZDUSD             could move up to retest 2014 high or most likely make a new higher high in the proximity of 0.93 -0.95 (See Monthly Chart)

Summary of Technicals:

1. Since 1985 low, it appears that we are in expanded Flat Correction of previous decline. Wave A and B are of 3 swings each therefore based on EW principles Wave C should be of 5 waves.
2. If correct the we are progressing in wave C which commenced from 2000 low.
3. Wave C could be in the form of Ending Diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3 construction of which we could have waves 1, 2, 3 complete and now wave 4 almost appear to be complete or is likely to very soon.
(Please see Monthly chart below for 1 -3 above)
4. Using the daily chart we note that the decline from 2014 high has been in abc zizgag of which wave c is expanding ending diagonal also of 3-3-3-3-3 construction with confluence of several fib ratios as noted in the chart.
5. We have clear RSI divergence noted both in monthly - daily time frame charts.
6 We have retraced approximately 66.67% of 2009 low to 2014 high (Gann percentage which equates to 2/3rd)

Hence, I will be on the look out on H4 charts for confirmation to consider long trade in this area or little lower.

Please Note:
The schematic price path shown on the chart is only an outline of anticipated directional move and not necessarily the exact highs and lows.

This is a very long term play and it would be absolutely normal for retracement along the way and sharp bounce would not necessarily alter the overall price path anticipated. This would offer shorter term swing trades in both direction.

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share it for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com

Related Ideas

DanV MOD
2 years ago
Monthly chart referred to above
snapshot
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Crossbourne
2 years ago
Hi Danv,
Nice analysis, I just want to ask, since this is a long term view, would you care to back it up by adding some fundamental drivers for going long?
Reply
DanV MOD Crossbourne
2 years ago
Hi, Thank you for your question. Whilst I do take note of fundamentals when I am clear about it, I don't specifically look to justify or look for confirmation using fundamentals.

Main reasons are that there are so many factors at play and I do not have the resources or ability to really do justice in fundamental analysis beyond the comment one most retail or individual traders might notes such as GDP, Interest rate etc.

Secondly, it is well know fact that on many occasions things look very rosy at major tops and bleak at major bottoms in the cycle and fundamentals only begin to filter through once the cycle has changed.

I have no way of really doing any sensible fundamental analysis hence I lean on Technical Analysis. That is not to say I am right. Often I will be wrong but will be able to notice that soon and will review my analysis where necessary.

Hope this will help even though I cannot support my views with fundamental details.
+1 Reply
Crossbourne DanV
2 years ago
I see, I agree with you on rosy at the tops view.
Thank you for the analysis and the answer, I'm interested in this view and will keep an eye on how it unfolds.
Reply
DanV MOD Crossbourne
2 years ago
Your welcome. But also take note of the possible DXY topping that I have linked to above.

On longer term charts some margin for errors are tolerable but looking for possible change in trend at certain levels is the right thing to do. Some time it might take couple of attempts but if it works then it could lead to great trade.
+1 Reply
Hi danvi thanks for sharing my idea
Reply
HI
NZDUSD
+1 Reply
DanV MOD manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
Hi. Thanks for your appreciation and sharing your charts.

I agree, about the potential for support you are on the look out for with AB=CD measured move.

Thanks again.
+2 Reply
amoldeokar75
2 years ago
Hello...excellent forecast about kiwi...i agree with it.
Reply
DanV MOD amoldeokar75
2 years ago
Hi, thanks for your comment. I appreciate it.
+1 Reply
amoldeokar75 DanV
2 years ago
Also thanks for posting monthly chart of kiwi dollar. by the way is ur name Dhanaji?
Reply
DanV MOD amoldeokar75
2 years ago
You are welcome.

Yes my name is Dhanji
+1 Reply
amoldeokar75
2 years ago
The fifth wave it is forming the ending diagonal......currently it is running in wave 3.
Reply
DanV MOD amoldeokar75
2 years ago
If the entire move of the 2000 low is ending diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3 construction then likely the wave 5 will also be a zigzag preferably abc or it might be wxy.

Hope this helps.
+1 Reply
DanV MOD
2 years ago
Possible low around 0.70 area as a round number. Here is close up view on H4 .
snapshot
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tcas
2 years ago
I would prefer to buy at about 0.69 where is 50 fib of good impulse on W chart.
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DanV MOD tcas
2 years ago
Yes I can understand that. If we get spike or extension then we might see that level. But if not then any confirmation of reversal would be helpful.

But in the zone. Thanks for your comment.
+1 Reply
tcas DanV
2 years ago
Correct. That is I want to say - to look for confirmation to buy in that area. Thanks for sharing your analysis.
Reply
DanV MOD tcas
2 years ago
You are welcome. Thanks for your comments
+1 Reply
DanV MOD
2 years ago
Just a quick note: After tonight's event, I will have to review this chart and will have to republish the update. Though for now it might not alter the larger time frame analysis.

Could this gap be exhaustion gap? Will review and post update in few days time.
+1 Reply
NZDUSD: Interesting contrarian point of view


Similar view, top in usdnzd is near...I can smell it.
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
(and gold already bottomed I would say - at least for now)
+1 Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Yes indeed I seem to think that Gold has bottomed as has AU probably and NZD should soon follow. With this chart overall for major trend or analysis on monthly time frame.
snapshot
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP DanV
2 years ago
I agree here, looks to be a corrective decline.
The fx_idc data makes it crystal clear.
My projected bottom should be a great long opportunity. I'll be watching it closely.
Getting in on wave 2 should be nice IF we're right here.
+1 Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Yes indeed. Based on my chart it will be wxy zizgag for wave 5 of ending diagonal.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP DanV
2 years ago
Dan, would like to hear what you think here...I don't think eurnzd can continue to move up if nzdusd goes up, not for long at least.

EURNZD: Multidisciplinary approach
+1 Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Agree. Might make it to 1.62 previous resistance otherwise retracement is in order.
snapshot
+1 Reply
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