The NZD/USD pair is on its way to tracing out either a (slightly imperfect) Cypher or a Gartley pattern (or possibly both) on the H4 chart. These patterns are looking to complete at their coinciding 78.6 level, which also happens to be the round number 0.6700.
The problems with trading this otherwise straightforward confluence of patterns are:-
1) The spectre of the failed/incomplete bearish Bat just prior, which began retracing just under its 78.6 level (the candle bodies actually close just shy of the 70.7 level). It is still within the realm of possibility that price attempts to reach the 88.6 level before fading.
2) The strong resistance zone between 0.6720 and 0.6775. Daily candles have been closing at or under this zone for some time. Price might want to touch this zone before support-and-resistance sellers come in. Likely event: price touches zone and reverses within one H4 candle, forming a long wick.
3) The resistance trendline from the failed D leg of the Bat projects to a price level before the 78.6 Cypher-Gartley Potential Reversal Zone.
There are many ways to approach this trade setup. Either make a market entry when price enters the resistance zone with a stop loss outside it, or wait until a single-candle reversal signal forms below it (for example a shooting star).
Having said that, price is currently whipsawing, and it is very possible that the Cypher completes, retraces until it meets resistance in the forming Gartley C-D leg, and goes back up to complete the Gartley pattern. While it is possible that both the Cypher and Gartley patterns complete simultaneously, given the complications above, coupled with time-considerations as to the formation of the Gartley, it is more likely that they complete in quick succession.
In any event, the hard stop should be at 0.6850, and the take profit at 0.6550-0.6540 (base of Cypher/Gartley, 38.2 of Bat). Risk-reward ratio anywhere from 1:1 to 1:4 and up.
Be careful, use proper money management, and this should be a profitable trade.
Best of luck!
The problems with trading this otherwise straightforward confluence of patterns are:-
1) The spectre of the failed/incomplete bearish Bat just prior, which began retracing just under its 78.6 level (the candle bodies actually close just shy of the 70.7 level). It is still within the realm of possibility that price attempts to reach the 88.6 level before fading.
2) The strong resistance zone between 0.6720 and 0.6775. Daily candles have been closing at or under this zone for some time. Price might want to touch this zone before support-and-resistance sellers come in. Likely event: price touches zone and reverses within one H4 candle, forming a long wick.
3) The resistance trendline from the failed D leg of the Bat projects to a price level before the 78.6 Cypher-Gartley Potential Reversal Zone.
There are many ways to approach this trade setup. Either make a market entry when price enters the resistance zone with a stop loss outside it, or wait until a single-candle reversal signal forms below it (for example a shooting star).
Having said that, price is currently whipsawing, and it is very possible that the Cypher completes, retraces until it meets resistance in the forming Gartley C-D leg, and goes back up to complete the Gartley pattern. While it is possible that both the Cypher and Gartley patterns complete simultaneously, given the complications above, coupled with time-considerations as to the formation of the Gartley, it is more likely that they complete in quick succession.
In any event, the hard stop should be at 0.6850, and the take profit at 0.6550-0.6540 (base of Cypher/Gartley, 38.2 of Bat). Risk-reward ratio anywhere from 1:1 to 1:4 and up.
Be careful, use proper money management, and this should be a profitable trade.
Best of luck!