As previously expected, the New Zealand Dollar was standing rather still during the past trading session, as it remained between its four month low and the monthly S1 at 0.7057 and 0.7084, respectively. The pair’s attempts to edge higher was disrupted by the 55-hour SMA that even diminished its trading range on Tuesday.
As apparent on the chart, the rate has been trading in a falling wedge since mid-September. The upper boundary of this pattern is located nearby; thus, a breakout to the upside could be the most probable scenario.
In case the 55-hour SMA is finally breached, the Kiwi might push towards the 100-hour SMA and the weekly PP circa 0.7125. Even though the rate might still move below its four-month high, this situation is unlikely.
As apparent on the chart, the rate has been trading in a falling wedge since mid-September. The upper boundary of this pattern is located nearby; thus, a breakout to the upside could be the most probable scenario.
In case the 55-hour SMA is finally breached, the Kiwi might push towards the 100-hour SMA and the weekly PP circa 0.7125. Even though the rate might still move below its four-month high, this situation is unlikely.
Comment:
Following a short-term consolidation period in force since October 6, the Kiwi finally managed to break out of its narrow trading range and test the 200-hour SMA. Thus, the given surge left the rate between this long-term moving average, the weekly PP and the 55– and 100-hour SMAs.
Downside risks could prevail in the upcoming hours, but it is unlikely that the aforementioned support cluster would be breached. As apparent on the chart, the New Zealand Dollar has remained near the 200-hour SMA for several hours.
This situation indicates that a possibility of further upside momentum should not be discarded. In case this scenario occurs, the rate is expected to test the weekly R1 at 0.7192.
Following a short-term consolidation period in force since October 6, the Kiwi finally managed to break out of its narrow trading range and test the 200-hour SMA. Thus, the given surge left the rate between this long-term moving average, the weekly PP and the 55– and 100-hour SMAs.
Downside risks could prevail in the upcoming hours, but it is unlikely that the aforementioned support cluster would be breached. As apparent on the chart, the New Zealand Dollar has remained near the 200-hour SMA for several hours.
This situation indicates that a possibility of further upside momentum should not be discarded. In case this scenario occurs, the rate is expected to test the weekly R1 at 0.7192.
Comment:
Upside risks keep pressuring NZD/USD northwards for the third consecutive trading session. The rate surged up to the 0.7195 mark following a disappointing US data release mid-Friday. Subsequently, the rate made a minor correction but still managed to reach the above peak once again on Monday.
It is expected that the rate could lose strength in the upcoming hours and subsequently push down to the 55-hour SMA and the weekly PP circa 0.7141.
It should be noted that New Zealand is to publish its CPI for the Q3 of 2017. Traders are expecting positive results which might push the rate towards the weekly R1 at 0.7226.
However, sluggish data should result in the Kiwi testing the aforementioned support or even the 100– and 200-hour SMA near 0.7120.
Upside risks keep pressuring NZD/USD northwards for the third consecutive trading session. The rate surged up to the 0.7195 mark following a disappointing US data release mid-Friday. Subsequently, the rate made a minor correction but still managed to reach the above peak once again on Monday.
It is expected that the rate could lose strength in the upcoming hours and subsequently push down to the 55-hour SMA and the weekly PP circa 0.7141.
It should be noted that New Zealand is to publish its CPI for the Q3 of 2017. Traders are expecting positive results which might push the rate towards the weekly R1 at 0.7226.
However, sluggish data should result in the Kiwi testing the aforementioned support or even the 100– and 200-hour SMA near 0.7120.
Comment:
NZD/USD remained in the 0.7160/0.7195 area for three sessions prior to plunging down to the 200-hour SMA during the first half of Wednesday’s trading session.
All this movement demonstrates the existence of a short-term descending channel. A test of the long-term moving average was followed by a correction upwards, thus providing another confirmation of the bottom channel boundary.
This situation together with technical oscillators that are gradually recovering from the oversold area point to an upward momentum, possibly up to the 100– or 55-hour SMAs or the upper channel boundary in the 0.7180 area.
In case of a strong movement downwards, the weekly and monthly S1s near the 0.7084 mark are likely to halt further price decrease.
NZD/USD remained in the 0.7160/0.7195 area for three sessions prior to plunging down to the 200-hour SMA during the first half of Wednesday’s trading session.
All this movement demonstrates the existence of a short-term descending channel. A test of the long-term moving average was followed by a correction upwards, thus providing another confirmation of the bottom channel boundary.
This situation together with technical oscillators that are gradually recovering from the oversold area point to an upward momentum, possibly up to the 100– or 55-hour SMAs or the upper channel boundary in the 0.7180 area.
In case of a strong movement downwards, the weekly and monthly S1s near the 0.7084 mark are likely to halt further price decrease.
Comment:
The New Zealand Dollar fell to its five-month low of 0.7010 against the Greenback on Thursday. This 143-pip fall was caused by the NZ First leader Winston Peters admitting to support a Labour-led government.
Such extreme fall should certainly be followed by a period of recovery. This upward movement could start in the upcoming hours following a test of the weekly S2 at 0.70. The main question is the scale of the expected appreciation.
The nearest significant resistance level are the weekly and monthly S1s near the 0.7085 mark. Given the strength of the plunge, it is likely that the Kiwi pushes even higher, possibly up to the 200-hour SMA at 0.7120.
The New Zealand Dollar fell to its five-month low of 0.7010 against the Greenback on Thursday. This 143-pip fall was caused by the NZ First leader Winston Peters admitting to support a Labour-led government.
Such extreme fall should certainly be followed by a period of recovery. This upward movement could start in the upcoming hours following a test of the weekly S2 at 0.70. The main question is the scale of the expected appreciation.
The nearest significant resistance level are the weekly and monthly S1s near the 0.7085 mark. Given the strength of the plunge, it is likely that the Kiwi pushes even higher, possibly up to the 200-hour SMA at 0.7120.
Comment:
Even though the New Zealand Dollar plunged 150 pips in the first half of Thursday, downside risks continued to pressure the rate even lower down to the monthly S2 at 0.70. This movement southwards was contrary to technical indicators that started to recover already mid-Thursday.
As apparent on the daily chart, the rate has reached the lower boundary of a four-month descending channel. Taking into account the two aforementioned factors, it is assumed that the expected recovery could finally realise in the remaining trading hours.
A possible trading range could be between the weekly and monthly S1s and the monthly S2 in the 0.7100/0.6978 territory.
Even though the New Zealand Dollar plunged 150 pips in the first half of Thursday, downside risks continued to pressure the rate even lower down to the monthly S2 at 0.70. This movement southwards was contrary to technical indicators that started to recover already mid-Thursday.
As apparent on the daily chart, the rate has reached the lower boundary of a four-month descending channel. Taking into account the two aforementioned factors, it is assumed that the expected recovery could finally realise in the remaining trading hours.
A possible trading range could be between the weekly and monthly S1s and the monthly S2 in the 0.7100/0.6978 territory.
The New Zealand Dollar has failed to leave the 0.7057/0.7094 area for the third consecutive session. During the time, however, the pair has approached the upper boundary of a falling wedge.
Its failure to move below the four-month high indicates that the bearish sentiment could allay in the upcoming sessions and thus allow bulls to take the upper hand. The closest resistance is the 100-hour SMA and the challenging weekly S1. This level is likely to be surpassed in the following hours just to pave the way for a surge up to the 200-hour SMA at 0.7134.
If looking from a longer perspective, the bottom boundary of the medium-term descending channel has not yet been reached, demonstrating that a fall down to the 0.7020 should not be excluded.