GBP/CAD, EUR/USD and NZD/USD on watch for me today.
Good morning all,
I hope you're doing well.
So yesterday I refrained from getting short on USD/CHF with a risk entry because price had broken our two inflection points fairly impulsively and in keeping with my forecast I said that I was only interested in getting short with a risk entry if price broke, or at least tagged at least one of them correctively. As price came back down and then pushed back up leaving us with a clear ascending trend line to work with I then placed my order on the break of the trend line, because the overall move up had now become a corrective one (at least in terms of how I define a corrective move). However price pushed so far up from this trend line and so close to our new high without actually tagging it (which is the crucial piece of information) that I decided to cancel my order, because in my experience when price comes very close to a high or low without actually tagging it it's often the case that the orders that were placed at, or just the other side of the high or low which are dragging the mid-price towards it need to be filled (more often than not) for price to be able to impulse in our forecasted direction and sure enough, on this occasion at least price broke the trend line, it didn't really go anywhere and now it's pushed back up to that previous high to no doubt collect all of the orders that I was speaking of that are located at, or just above our new high and what happens after it's done so remains to be seen. But these are just things that you learn through experience and through backtesting. On a different day I could have cancelled my order and price could have rocketed in my forecasted direction, but the majority of the time which is all we as traders should be interested in price will do what it's doing this morning for the reasons given.
But where today is concerned I think there's better investment opportunities available that now make more sense to me from a structural perspective and those opportunities and my entry requirements I've pasted below for your viewing as always.
Have a great day folks!
GBP/CAD:
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below the lower trend line of our most recent piece of structure and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just above a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/USD:
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our lower rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight one hour flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
NZD/USD:
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our lower rayline and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just above a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
I hope you're doing well.
So yesterday I refrained from getting short on USD/CHF with a risk entry because price had broken our two inflection points fairly impulsively and in keeping with my forecast I said that I was only interested in getting short with a risk entry if price broke, or at least tagged at least one of them correctively. As price came back down and then pushed back up leaving us with a clear ascending trend line to work with I then placed my order on the break of the trend line, because the overall move up had now become a corrective one (at least in terms of how I define a corrective move). However price pushed so far up from this trend line and so close to our new high without actually tagging it (which is the crucial piece of information) that I decided to cancel my order, because in my experience when price comes very close to a high or low without actually tagging it it's often the case that the orders that were placed at, or just the other side of the high or low which are dragging the mid-price towards it need to be filled (more often than not) for price to be able to impulse in our forecasted direction and sure enough, on this occasion at least price broke the trend line, it didn't really go anywhere and now it's pushed back up to that previous high to no doubt collect all of the orders that I was speaking of that are located at, or just above our new high and what happens after it's done so remains to be seen. But these are just things that you learn through experience and through backtesting. On a different day I could have cancelled my order and price could have rocketed in my forecasted direction, but the majority of the time which is all we as traders should be interested in price will do what it's doing this morning for the reasons given.
But where today is concerned I think there's better investment opportunities available that now make more sense to me from a structural perspective and those opportunities and my entry requirements I've pasted below for your viewing as always.
Have a great day folks!
GBP/CAD:
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below the lower trend line of our most recent piece of structure and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just above a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
EUR/USD:
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our lower rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up followed by a tight one hour flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
NZD/USD:
• If price pushes down to and ideally just below our lower rayline and the last part of the move is corrective, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just above a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.