MARKET CRASH! PAYPAL $PYPL ANALYSIS
Hey all, I know this is some of the first Stock analysis that I have put out on trading view, but for those of you who know me, I have been calling moves in the stock market on point since 2018. Known for:
Called Shocktober of 2018
Called the Crash of 2020 (my call was for 3 days after the start of the crash, since COVID was the black swan catalyst that started its dive).
Called the irregular V-Bottom Recovery for the Crash of 2020.
Called the now forming start of the Crash of 2022 that Ive projected it to happen in Q1 2022, since the start of 2021. This Crash will be an overall trend reversal across major indexes, due to price action reaching a test of a macro scale .618 Fibonacci Extension. I've projected that the crash starting in 2022, will play out a similar style to that of the Bubble Pop that occurred in 1929, except due to the extensive size of the bubbled market we have today, this crash we will see in the market, will make the crash of 1929 look like its little BEEYYOTCH. Shown Here:
Now to jump into this analysis.
OVERALL MARKET ANALYSIS:
After seeing for the first time in a very long time we have seen the major indexes like the
SPX
,
DJI
and other indexes all have failed to create a new higher high, despite making a lower low off this recent drop we have seen since the start of 2022. This has started a new downward trajectory for the market, that could lead into the projected crash that I have called to start in 2022.
In addition to the FED re-introducing rate hikes as of Q2 2022, This will just add to all the inflation that is already happening i.e. current currency supply inflation, Consumer price index inflation, supply & demand inflation due to supply chain bottlenecking...
Examples of how inflation is affecting not only the consumers but even the companies producing the products can be seen everywhere. We as consumers continue seeing prices rising with what looks like no end in sight. Manufacturers have been downsizing the products they produce and are still charging more for the same product just packaged a bit smaller now.
For example Gatorade used to have the 32floz bottle size and used to be able to get them 2 for $4. Nowadays you will not see the 32floz size and instead you will see a 29floz bottle size and most commonly I see 2 for $6. Many products have been doing this to be able find extra product within the product they already produce and now use a slightly smaller container which both help cut some costs for the company while being able to produce the same product.
PYPL
CHART ANALYSIS:
Due to the major indexes making that lower low and then coming back with a lower high, this has started the downward trajectory, and as of Feb 2 2022, when the indexes made that top and the price turned around, You are seeing MAJOR PRICE DROPS across many of the individual stocks in recent days.
The drops normally have been forming new large gaps in the chart, which led me to analyze any other possible gaps that are present that have NOT been filled to current date. The ONLY REAL chart analysis that is needed at this point is to follow the gaps in the charts, because as the old saying goes "Gaps Fill".
As you can see here on Paypal's chart, we had been dropping from its highs since mid-2021 and also made a gap higher up in the chart in November 2021 that has yet to be filled from $216 - $224. The bottom of the gap was re-tested and failed, which resulted in a drop down to the .382 FIB Retracement, but upon its initial test, the price action broke below the .382 level. Although its attempt to hold that level, its initial break would be the cause for its continued move downward.
Although we had what looked like a promising recovery off the .55 Fib Retracement level, this was SAVAGELY Shut down the same day that the major indexes put in the lower high turnover in price action. Combined with the market pricing in its dissatisfaction with the FED reintroducing rate hikes next quarter, the combined confirmations have woke up the bears from hibernation and they are HUNGRY.
This SAVAGE rejection produced an instant GAP downwards of 20.5%, resulting in a GAP from $141 - $176. This has yet to be filled, as marked on the chart.
The drop down to this level has filled a GAP that was left unfilled from May 2020, and is now filled. Which is a slightly positive observation. We could have seen the gap that we just formed possibly fill, if the price action was able to break the bottom of the GAP which sits right on top of the .618 FIB Retracement level, and with the GAP candle forming under the .618 fib retracement, this produced a further move downward, creating a move further downward to the $123 price level.
Currently, we have the candle from last Friday (2/4/22) form candle body support on top of the .706 FIb Retracement level and that correlates to holding support on top of a Double Top that formed formed from the start of 2019 up to the crash of 2020.
PREDICTIONS:
Overall, there are plenty of swing trade opportunities all throughout each of the moves the market makes. But overall, a short/downward price action bias is still overwhelmingly strong right now
A) From this level we could see a move to re-test the .618 Fib Retrace, resistance level at $141. IF it does re-test the .618 fib retracement, the probability of being rejected is HiGHLY LIKELY due to the strength of the .618 fib levels overall, but that would also mark the top of the now filled GAP from May 2020. And considering the time frame as to which that would happen, that would be around the start of Q2 2022 which is when rate hikes would be started again. A break of such a strong fib level also has a very low possibility due to the move that was just made downward as well.
B) Whether we re-test $141 or we re-test the $128 level, which is the bottom side of the May 2020 Gap that's been now filled. The current candle body support on the .706 FIb Retracement level is below this $128 GAP resistance and also below the last long term ascending trend line that we had. The confluence of bearish confirmations would mean that the bottom side of that GAP would result as a new resistance point for the chart and seeing that there is yet another unfilled GAP from April 2020, we are most probable to see a move that pushes us down to the $94 - $96.50 price level. A Key indication of what the next move would be from this GAP fill would be whether or not the price action can recover and wick back above the .865 fib retracement to hold candle body support.
C1) IF it can recover the .865 fib level, that could fuel a trend to the upside to re-test the .786/ .706/ .618 fib retracement levels, A break and hold of support of each would allow us to fill the November 2021 and February 2022 GAPs.
C2) Keep in mind that there is also a GAP that is from April 2017 that is yet to be filled that sits down at the $45 -$46 price level. After filling the April 2020 GAP at $94 - $96.50, If we CANNOT recover the .865 Fib Level and start to close daily candles below $100, the probability of yet another move downward to the April 2017 GAP would be inevitable. We would see some indicator and oscillator relieving support at the 1 Fib Retracement level and then ultimately the 1.618 FIB Retracement level sits down at $37.50..
CONTINGENCIES:
There are a couple of things that would create the opportunity but also the ability to continuously capitulate in a waterfall down, 85% to fill the April 2017 GAP and down 88% to find support at the 1.618 fib retracement level.
These factors would include any of the following:
Called Shocktober of 2018
Called the Crash of 2020 (my call was for 3 days after the start of the crash, since COVID was the black swan catalyst that started its dive).
Called the irregular V-Bottom Recovery for the Crash of 2020.
Called the now forming start of the Crash of 2022 that Ive projected it to happen in Q1 2022, since the start of 2021. This Crash will be an overall trend reversal across major indexes, due to price action reaching a test of a macro scale .618 Fibonacci Extension. I've projected that the crash starting in 2022, will play out a similar style to that of the Bubble Pop that occurred in 1929, except due to the extensive size of the bubbled market we have today, this crash we will see in the market, will make the crash of 1929 look like its little BEEYYOTCH. Shown Here:
Now to jump into this analysis.
OVERALL MARKET ANALYSIS:
After seeing for the first time in a very long time we have seen the major indexes like the
SPX
,
DJI
and other indexes all have failed to create a new higher high, despite making a lower low off this recent drop we have seen since the start of 2022. This has started a new downward trajectory for the market, that could lead into the projected crash that I have called to start in 2022. In addition to the FED re-introducing rate hikes as of Q2 2022, This will just add to all the inflation that is already happening i.e. current currency supply inflation, Consumer price index inflation, supply & demand inflation due to supply chain bottlenecking...
Examples of how inflation is affecting not only the consumers but even the companies producing the products can be seen everywhere. We as consumers continue seeing prices rising with what looks like no end in sight. Manufacturers have been downsizing the products they produce and are still charging more for the same product just packaged a bit smaller now.
For example Gatorade used to have the 32floz bottle size and used to be able to get them 2 for $4. Nowadays you will not see the 32floz size and instead you will see a 29floz bottle size and most commonly I see 2 for $6. Many products have been doing this to be able find extra product within the product they already produce and now use a slightly smaller container which both help cut some costs for the company while being able to produce the same product.
PYPL
CHART ANALYSIS: Due to the major indexes making that lower low and then coming back with a lower high, this has started the downward trajectory, and as of Feb 2 2022, when the indexes made that top and the price turned around, You are seeing MAJOR PRICE DROPS across many of the individual stocks in recent days.
The drops normally have been forming new large gaps in the chart, which led me to analyze any other possible gaps that are present that have NOT been filled to current date. The ONLY REAL chart analysis that is needed at this point is to follow the gaps in the charts, because as the old saying goes "Gaps Fill".
As you can see here on Paypal's chart, we had been dropping from its highs since mid-2021 and also made a gap higher up in the chart in November 2021 that has yet to be filled from $216 - $224. The bottom of the gap was re-tested and failed, which resulted in a drop down to the .382 FIB Retracement, but upon its initial test, the price action broke below the .382 level. Although its attempt to hold that level, its initial break would be the cause for its continued move downward.
Although we had what looked like a promising recovery off the .55 Fib Retracement level, this was SAVAGELY Shut down the same day that the major indexes put in the lower high turnover in price action. Combined with the market pricing in its dissatisfaction with the FED reintroducing rate hikes next quarter, the combined confirmations have woke up the bears from hibernation and they are HUNGRY.
This SAVAGE rejection produced an instant GAP downwards of 20.5%, resulting in a GAP from $141 - $176. This has yet to be filled, as marked on the chart.
The drop down to this level has filled a GAP that was left unfilled from May 2020, and is now filled. Which is a slightly positive observation. We could have seen the gap that we just formed possibly fill, if the price action was able to break the bottom of the GAP which sits right on top of the .618 FIB Retracement level, and with the GAP candle forming under the .618 fib retracement, this produced a further move downward, creating a move further downward to the $123 price level.
Currently, we have the candle from last Friday (2/4/22) form candle body support on top of the .706 FIb Retracement level and that correlates to holding support on top of a Double Top that formed formed from the start of 2019 up to the crash of 2020.
PREDICTIONS:
Overall, there are plenty of swing trade opportunities all throughout each of the moves the market makes. But overall, a short/downward price action bias is still overwhelmingly strong right now
A) From this level we could see a move to re-test the .618 Fib Retrace, resistance level at $141. IF it does re-test the .618 fib retracement, the probability of being rejected is HiGHLY LIKELY due to the strength of the .618 fib levels overall, but that would also mark the top of the now filled GAP from May 2020. And considering the time frame as to which that would happen, that would be around the start of Q2 2022 which is when rate hikes would be started again. A break of such a strong fib level also has a very low possibility due to the move that was just made downward as well.
B) Whether we re-test $141 or we re-test the $128 level, which is the bottom side of the May 2020 Gap that's been now filled. The current candle body support on the .706 FIb Retracement level is below this $128 GAP resistance and also below the last long term ascending trend line that we had. The confluence of bearish confirmations would mean that the bottom side of that GAP would result as a new resistance point for the chart and seeing that there is yet another unfilled GAP from April 2020, we are most probable to see a move that pushes us down to the $94 - $96.50 price level. A Key indication of what the next move would be from this GAP fill would be whether or not the price action can recover and wick back above the .865 fib retracement to hold candle body support.
C1) IF it can recover the .865 fib level, that could fuel a trend to the upside to re-test the .786/ .706/ .618 fib retracement levels, A break and hold of support of each would allow us to fill the November 2021 and February 2022 GAPs.
C2) Keep in mind that there is also a GAP that is from April 2017 that is yet to be filled that sits down at the $45 -$46 price level. After filling the April 2020 GAP at $94 - $96.50, If we CANNOT recover the .865 Fib Level and start to close daily candles below $100, the probability of yet another move downward to the April 2017 GAP would be inevitable. We would see some indicator and oscillator relieving support at the 1 Fib Retracement level and then ultimately the 1.618 FIB Retracement level sits down at $37.50..
CONTINGENCIES:
There are a couple of things that would create the opportunity but also the ability to continuously capitulate in a waterfall down, 85% to fill the April 2017 GAP and down 88% to find support at the 1.618 fib retracement level.
These factors would include any of the following:
- FED not realizing that the market will continue to capitulate as long as the are integrating Rate HIkes. Of which, start in Q2 2022 with up to a 1% rate hike, Q3 2022 with up to a 2.15% rate hike, and Q4 2022 with up to a 3.25% rate hike. Then for 2023 the continued rate hikes are projected at 3.25% and up based on FED evaluation. They do not plan on decreasing rates by any means until their have drastically reduced their $9.5 Trillion Balance of Mortgage Backed Securities (Debt Treasury Bonds) that they have bought from the banks in the form of bailouts. This balance does not include any of the passed budget plans that has required the FED to create new currency to fund budget plans which also include all the stimuli for COVID-19 and EDD funds to each state to continue to payout Unemployment claims, PUA and PEUC benefits to everyone.
- NOT Reverting back to 0% rates will continue to impact the market with detrimental effects from the roughly $25-$30 Trillion dollars that have been created in the past 2 years. With how long the rates have been at 0% - 0.5% prior to COVID and then during the last two years, having maintained a 0% rate, while we also have been creating obscene amounts of new currency to be able to provide liquidity for everything that would be to simulate the economy velocity or to pay for COVID related expense, and bank bailouts. Another detrimental factor that comes into play are that physical fiat currency will NOT be made for most of the amounts that have been generated for liquidity. Which means that the Federal Stimulus direct deposits and checks, the bank bailouts, and the liquidity given to states to fund the Unemployment and PUA and PEUC benefits were all sent out using currency digits. Currency Digits = newly created currency from the FED that does not create new physical fiat currency to account for the newly created currency amount. Instead this currency amount is transferred as digits and then the debt is held in Treasury Bonds. Problem is that those T-Bonds become a ticking time bomb, cause the FED has been creating new currency digits to give out at a 0% rate, but then has to turn around and buy up defaulted mortgages and debt bailing out the banks to then make new Treasury Bonds for the new debt its bought, of which all banks and other country's banks and governments would bid to be able to acquire these T-Bond'd backed securities of debt for an incentive i.e. profit %, tax cut, lump sum payout for holding it. But when you have every other Country in the world that is having their own economic crisis that takes them out of the picture and banks cant buy up the T-Bond debt like they usually would because they would have to ask their sugar-daddy (The FED) for liquidity to be able to buy up the T-Bond Bills..Now these T-Bond backed securities of debt have no one buying them up and they will eventually come due,. Take a crazy guess as to what willl happen then?.... Yup thats right, more new currency to be able to
- High Frequency Algorithmic Trading bots Fueling excessive moves downward due to the nature of which they are coded to use indicators and oscillators that reflect current market momentum and strength. Just as they did during the Crash of 2020. Many of the anchors on MSNBC would frequently discuss/complained about how these HFT Bots were continuing to drive the price down uncontrollably.
- Overall High Inflation combined from the new Rate Hiikes (1%-3% per quarter), the Consumer Prince Index Inflation (avg. 7.1% ea. month), the Current Currency Supply (physical fiat) inflation (avg 28% YoY) combined with decreased Economic Velocity with force people into another economic indeflation where mass deflation and inflation are being made at the same time -- deflation made by the fear of markets downward trends and consumers reverting to mattress savings of cash, and inflation made by the government creating new incentives for people to apply credit and loans, new stimulus handouts, and any other way they can think of to stimulate the economy and continue to have velocity..
There you have it, a combined analysis of short term and long term price targets, analysis of the market overall plus $PYPL charts specifically, and then a cross analysis of how current and future economic conditions could and would effect the price as well.
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Trade closed: target reached:
AS of Feb 25th, You would want to be closed out of this position in profit.
Overall the analysis I made, outlined in the PREDICTIONS Section, each move that the price action made, i had projected it exactly!!!
So far price action has completed the moves in the predictions step A and step B and now given we have come back above the .865 and also are looking to hold above the .786 fib retracement levels, that would mean we are seeing Step C1 now starting.
If you did not close out your position in the $94-$96.50 range or close once we broke back above $100. then I would take the time now to set a stop profit order that would trigger @ $114.00 and then fill at $115.00
This is only because the candle did finish underneath a long term trend line from sideways action that happened before.
Anyone who opened their short position at the $129 level:
A close of your position in the gap below the .865 fib retrace level netted a profit of 32.85% and had a Risk to Reward Ratio of 4.38
A close of your position once the price action broke back above the .865 fib level, netted a profit of 30.4% and had a Risk to Reward ratio of 4.05
A close of your position at the Stop profit of $115 and a break above the .786 fib level netted a profit of 18.62% and still would have maintained a Risk to Reward ratio of 2.48
I will keep the analysis coming AS LONG AS YOU ALL KEEP LIKING AND FOLLOWING THE CONTENT! SHARE IT WITH YOUR FRIENDS!
CONGRATS TO ALL THOSE WHO MADE THIS HUGE PROFIT!
YOU made more profit in this 1 Single Trade than the average stock market ROI of about 12% annually.
AS of Feb 25th, You would want to be closed out of this position in profit.
Overall the analysis I made, outlined in the PREDICTIONS Section, each move that the price action made, i had projected it exactly!!!
So far price action has completed the moves in the predictions step A and step B and now given we have come back above the .865 and also are looking to hold above the .786 fib retracement levels, that would mean we are seeing Step C1 now starting.
If you did not close out your position in the $94-$96.50 range or close once we broke back above $100. then I would take the time now to set a stop profit order that would trigger @ $114.00 and then fill at $115.00
This is only because the candle did finish underneath a long term trend line from sideways action that happened before.
Anyone who opened their short position at the $129 level:
A close of your position in the gap below the .865 fib retrace level netted a profit of 32.85% and had a Risk to Reward Ratio of 4.38
A close of your position once the price action broke back above the .865 fib level, netted a profit of 30.4% and had a Risk to Reward ratio of 4.05
A close of your position at the Stop profit of $115 and a break above the .786 fib level netted a profit of 18.62% and still would have maintained a Risk to Reward ratio of 2.48
I will keep the analysis coming AS LONG AS YOU ALL KEEP LIKING AND FOLLOWING THE CONTENT! SHARE IT WITH YOUR FRIENDS!
CONGRATS TO ALL THOSE WHO MADE THIS HUGE PROFIT!
YOU made more profit in this 1 Single Trade than the average stock market ROI of about 12% annually.
As I stated would be the analysis had the highest probability of happening, has happened.
The opening candle of Monday 2/7/22 got rejected at the bottom of the May 20220 GAP that we just filled as well as the last ascending trend line in the trend channel we have been holding since January 2016.