Short Real Estate
Monthly chart doesn't look that great IMO, ripe for at least aa 20% correction.
------Technicals------------
Monthly price is extended WAY above MAs, and rejected to top trendline that runs back to 2008.
Lumber Prices have gone down a LOT - check LBS1!
------Macro-----------
Everyone that wants to buy a home - has bought one. We are about to enter a deflationary era where high prices start to be rejected by the consumer. This fall, foreclosures and evictions may resume. Just as the housing market has absorbed all the buyers at high prices, a flood of supply will enter the market and crush prices. Demographics are NOT in favor of the market in general - Japan has been suffering this issue for 30 years.
Yields are falling because demand is falling - all of the buyers have already entered the market and bought....all that is left are sellers.
------Methods-----------
Best way to play a Real Estate crash is to short the market. Buy a inverse leveraged ETF like
DRV
(-3x housing market) and buy. It's coming sooner or later - housing prices are cyclic and we haven't "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”
------Technicals------------
Monthly price is extended WAY above MAs, and rejected to top trendline that runs back to 2008.
Lumber Prices have gone down a LOT - check LBS1!
------Macro-----------
Everyone that wants to buy a home - has bought one. We are about to enter a deflationary era where high prices start to be rejected by the consumer. This fall, foreclosures and evictions may resume. Just as the housing market has absorbed all the buyers at high prices, a flood of supply will enter the market and crush prices. Demographics are NOT in favor of the market in general - Japan has been suffering this issue for 30 years.
Yields are falling because demand is falling - all of the buyers have already entered the market and bought....all that is left are sellers.
------Methods-----------
Best way to play a Real Estate crash is to short the market. Buy a inverse leveraged ETF like
DRV
(-3x housing market) and buy. It's coming sooner or later - housing prices are cyclic and we haven't "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”
Trade active:
Just re-longed $DRV from down here.
200DMA breakout, backtest of 20dma, and up we go. Stupid simple PA and this is the first 200dma confirmed break since the COVID Crash
200DMA breakout, backtest of 20dma, and up we go. Stupid simple PA and this is the first 200dma confirmed break since the COVID Crash
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