I posted this on August 27, but a moderator blocked because I had a linked to an offsite chart that the mods felt constituted advertising. (Apologies to the commenters whose comments disappeared along with the post.) I kinda wish I had reposted right away, because the post ended up being pretty prescient. (I had predicted that the S&P 500 would pull back to at least 3400 and that investors would begin to rotate to value.) But, I think it's still relevant enough for a repost. I've updated it a little in light of last week's selloff.
The S&P 500 has been on a monster run since March, surging to new record highs. That's partly because massive government stimulus produced a rapid economic recovery, with consistent month-over-month economic growth and an extremely high rate of positive economic surprises. It's possible that the economic data will turn more negative in September if Congress doesn't succeed in cutting a new stimulus deal. But so far the economic data still point toward continued recovery in the back half of the year. The ECRI weekly leading index has slowed since June, but it's still trending upward. We had good jobs numbers and good PMI numbers in August. The only really worrying sign was that consumer confidence crashed last month. The effect hasn't yet shown up in any consumer spending data, however. Overall, the economic numbers militate against a broad stock market selloff in the next few months. Having said that, it's important to note two facts.
First, September is traditionally the weakest month of the year for stocks. Volumes fall off with the end of the summer earnings season, and in election years there's political risk. In fact, in presidential election years when an incumbent gets ousted, there tend to be steep selloffs from February to mid-March and from September to October. Consistent with that pattern, we saw a February selloff earlier this year and a mega cap selloff in the first week of September, and the incumbent is trailing in the polls by an eight-point spread.
Second, growth stocks have pretty stretched valuations right now. That's especially true of the mega cap FAANG+ stocks. Even after last week's selloff, for instance, Microsoft is still trading about 25% above its median forward P/E and 35% above its median forward P/S. Meanwhile, value stocks like Citigroup are trading at a discount of nearly the same magnitude. So while I don't expect a huge, broad correction in the next couple months given the strength of economic data, we might be due for a rotation from growth to value as seasonality puts investors a little more on the defensive.
When you drill down into the economic numbers, they certainly support a rotation. Consider this week's releases of August PMI data. The manufacturing sector looked hot, with some of its highest readings in 2-3 years. Also showing strong growth were leisure and entertainment, healthcare, utilities, and financials. Meanwhile, the tech sector is still growing, but its growth slowed in August. The construction sector also shows signs of slowing down, with mortgage applications, real estate transactions, and lumber prices all down this week. Now that Russia has a working Covid-19 vaccine and the US is close to a vaccine as well, the work-from-home bubble may begin to burst. State economies are reopening, a good sign for the brick-and-mortar businesses most hurt by the pandemic; a less-good sign for e-commerce and big tech.
On the chart, you can see how the equal weight S&P 500 has been oscillating in a range relative to the cap weighted S&P 500 . In the last three days, it began an upward oscillation. It still has room to run, and I expect a move upward to at least my first target. More likely, this will prove to be an even larger oscillation. I am thinking it runs to Target 2, pulls back to Target 1, and then follows through with a move up to Target 3. In this scenario, I'd look for Target 3 by maybe the end of September.
The small cap : S&P 500 ratio tends to oscillate in a range as well, and it too has begun an upward oscillation (albeit with a little less conviction than equal weights). I expect the peak of the upward move in this ratio to coincide with the peak of the upward move in the equal weight : cap weighted S&P 500 ratio.
Now, keep in mind that these are ratios. Just because RSP and IWM outperform relative to SPY doesn't mean that they go up in absolute terms. As with the last few days, they may instead sell off, but just fall more slowly than SPY . Personally, though, I'm bullish enough on the overall economic data that I want to maintain some market exposure right now. I'm doing so through equal weight funds and carefully chosen mid-cap value stock picking, particularly in sectors like industrials , financials, and utilities.
The S&P 500 has been on a monster run since March, surging to new record highs. That's partly because massive government stimulus produced a rapid economic recovery, with consistent month-over-month economic growth and an extremely high rate of positive economic surprises. It's possible that the economic data will turn more negative in September if Congress doesn't succeed in cutting a new stimulus deal. But so far the economic data still point toward continued recovery in the back half of the year. The ECRI weekly leading index has slowed since June, but it's still trending upward. We had good jobs numbers and good PMI numbers in August. The only really worrying sign was that consumer confidence crashed last month. The effect hasn't yet shown up in any consumer spending data, however. Overall, the economic numbers militate against a broad stock market selloff in the next few months. Having said that, it's important to note two facts.
First, September is traditionally the weakest month of the year for stocks. Volumes fall off with the end of the summer earnings season, and in election years there's political risk. In fact, in presidential election years when an incumbent gets ousted, there tend to be steep selloffs from February to mid-March and from September to October. Consistent with that pattern, we saw a February selloff earlier this year and a mega cap selloff in the first week of September, and the incumbent is trailing in the polls by an eight-point spread.
Second, growth stocks have pretty stretched valuations right now. That's especially true of the mega cap FAANG+ stocks. Even after last week's selloff, for instance, Microsoft is still trading about 25% above its median forward P/E and 35% above its median forward P/S. Meanwhile, value stocks like Citigroup are trading at a discount of nearly the same magnitude. So while I don't expect a huge, broad correction in the next couple months given the strength of economic data, we might be due for a rotation from growth to value as seasonality puts investors a little more on the defensive.
When you drill down into the economic numbers, they certainly support a rotation. Consider this week's releases of August PMI data. The manufacturing sector looked hot, with some of its highest readings in 2-3 years. Also showing strong growth were leisure and entertainment, healthcare, utilities, and financials. Meanwhile, the tech sector is still growing, but its growth slowed in August. The construction sector also shows signs of slowing down, with mortgage applications, real estate transactions, and lumber prices all down this week. Now that Russia has a working Covid-19 vaccine and the US is close to a vaccine as well, the work-from-home bubble may begin to burst. State economies are reopening, a good sign for the brick-and-mortar businesses most hurt by the pandemic; a less-good sign for e-commerce and big tech.
On the chart, you can see how the equal weight S&P 500 has been oscillating in a range relative to the cap weighted S&P 500 . In the last three days, it began an upward oscillation. It still has room to run, and I expect a move upward to at least my first target. More likely, this will prove to be an even larger oscillation. I am thinking it runs to Target 2, pulls back to Target 1, and then follows through with a move up to Target 3. In this scenario, I'd look for Target 3 by maybe the end of September.
The small cap : S&P 500 ratio tends to oscillate in a range as well, and it too has begun an upward oscillation (albeit with a little less conviction than equal weights). I expect the peak of the upward move in this ratio to coincide with the peak of the upward move in the equal weight : cap weighted S&P 500 ratio.
Now, keep in mind that these are ratios. Just because RSP and IWM outperform relative to SPY doesn't mean that they go up in absolute terms. As with the last few days, they may instead sell off, but just fall more slowly than SPY . Personally, though, I'm bullish enough on the overall economic data that I want to maintain some market exposure right now. I'm doing so through equal weight funds and carefully chosen mid-cap value stock picking, particularly in sectors like industrials , financials, and utilities.
Comment:
We're just about up to Target 1.
Comment:
We have officially reached the first target for this trade!
Comment:
Value on breakout watch again today.
Comment:
We touched the second target today.
