SP500 stocks are at key 200 level and we are waiting to see which way the crowd takes us next.
Bulls say we soft landed and economy is still strong.
Bears say we have yet to feel the full effect of the tightening and higher costs.
I lean bearish and believe the full effect of rates will take time to hit. In 2005/6 when housing was booming and rates were ratcheted up, we didnt turn in the market until 2007/2008. So this isnt mtv or microwave popcorn, stuff takes time.
If Im wrong on this, it will be because fed eases and funding fuels the next years of growth and inflation, which is the opposite of what Jerome Powell blatantly says.
We shall see soon either way.
Stay safe and dont take more risk than you can handle.
Cheers.!
SPX
Bulls say we soft landed and economy is still strong.
Bears say we have yet to feel the full effect of the tightening and higher costs.
I lean bearish and believe the full effect of rates will take time to hit. In 2005/6 when housing was booming and rates were ratcheted up, we didnt turn in the market until 2007/2008. So this isnt mtv or microwave popcorn, stuff takes time.
If Im wrong on this, it will be because fed eases and funding fuels the next years of growth and inflation, which is the opposite of what Jerome Powell blatantly says.
We shall see soon either way.
Stay safe and dont take more risk than you can handle.
Cheers.!
SPX
