This_Guhy
Long

Silver Profit taking

COMEX:SI1!   Silver Futures
For reasons I am sure you all know, I think silver is staged for a massive move and I want to make sure I get all the gains I can for the least amount of work; I am not looking to day trade or swing trade my silver positions. On the right in orange is the multi-year consolidation pattern we went through and the break out thereof. There is currently the chance of an falling wedge forming on a flagpole. It could also turn into an acceding triangle, or probably some other bullish continuation pattern. Depending on where it breaks out determines where we set our targets. There is also the chance it busts but I think that is the minority scenario.

Conveniently the target on this formation matches with the three month bollinger bands off to the left. I have placed both the 3 and 4 st . dev. bands on there, and I have been tinkering with the data visualization aspect so I can get the most data on there while still making it easy to read.

The upper limit of the 4st. dev bollinger band is pretty ambitious, but by definition the price action has to go outside of the 4st. dev bollinger band 0.1% of the time, and by golly that is where I intend to take my profit. Despite my optimism for a once a decade run in silver there is still a chance that the price action will behave as it did at the red arrow on the futures chart, where price action loses some 40% of its value and consolidates for about 5 years.

A green arrow event would mean that even if you FOMO'd in and held you could almost double your position size in little over a year. Now, I don't want my money stagnant for a year either, but that is way better than seeing another red arrow event.

That nice purple line is at the current upper limit of the 4st. dev bollinger band and it seems to have a lot of contacts as resistance in the pass so I am expecting it to be our resistance in the future, and I think we won't see the great uptrend many of us want to see until it is confirmed as support.

And finally, when I see the price action above the 4st. dev. range I am am sure my adrenaline will dump and I will have damn near a heart attack as I look to market close my USLV position, without anything resembling bearing or dignity. It would be a lot easier if I was just in a CFD or with futures , but x3 etfs often operate at a premium and so I don't really trust the ability to set take profits at the bollinger band with USLV .

While silver consolidates I'll be looking at Gold and bitcoin to be moving any direction but sideways.
$21.70 is merely the beginning....Thats the first inning target
+1 Reply
@awh2830, Exactly, but when silver is consolidating I'll be into something that is moving and I'll buy the breakout with more than if I had held. These are 3 months candles, so it takes over a year to get to new highs, which is a year I can be trading gbtc, spxu or some other fast moving etf.
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