timwest
Short

SLV tired - it looks like a short term top

BATS:SLV   ISHARES SILVER TRUST
563 8 0
QE~ can't get this train rockin' - so maybe it will rest and test the recent buyers.

The chart is somewhat self-explanatory just looking at it.

It has stalled and could be rolling over and might test the 22-day low (1-month low).

Risk just 1-average range and target 2-average ranges to take profits.

Technical Tim

9:53AM EST Tuesday, Oct             2,
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timwest PRO
4 years ago
Why isn
Just looking at 4 months ago's chart suggesting to EXIT on QE3 announcement...
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nmike MOD
4 years ago
hello Tim,it looks like you might be right,as SLV is at heavy resistance 
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timwest PRO
4 years ago
So far, SLV is rolling over with today's action. Lower the stop to break-even.
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timwest PRO
4 years ago
2 AVERAGE RANGE TARGET REACHED: (close enough for me)
The market has fallen 2 average ranges from the entry recommendation. So, even though it hasn't fallen to its 22-day low near the 29 level (probably too extreme of a call, but I was simply looking to test the recent buyers and we have had that now).

EXTREME TRADING RECOMMENDATION:
If you don't wish to exit AND If you are extremely risk-seeking with your profits, there is a very good trade here to increase the size of your trade and only risk the original risk. Here's what I mean. I lowered the stop to break-even from just 1 average range above the entry, which it almost hit, by the way. Now what we can do is to layer on another position such that the entire risk of the trade is what your original risk$ was.

For example: If you shorted $10,000 of SLV and risked 60 cents (the 11-day ATR on that day) on 300 shares of SLV, you were risking $180, which is 60 cents per share times the 300 shares.

Now SLV is lower and you have a profit of just shy of the 2 ATR's at $1.10 or $330.

So, figure out what position size to have using the $33.58 original entry price as your stop, such that you would lose $180 if it went up to that stop. You would lose your original profit of $330, of course, but you would break-even on that 300 shares. If you short 180 shares additional, then you would lose $180 if SLV rallied $1 from here at $32.58. So, then answer is that you could short another 180 shares or $7000 additional for a total of $17,000 of silver sold short.

The target on the this trade would be a drop to the 22-day low, which was $29.25 when the trade started, but now that level has moved up to $31.47. So the total potential in this trade is 2.10 points on the original position of 300 shares and $1.10 on the additional 180 shares for a total of $660 + $330 or $990. This takes guts but by adding to your winners at increments (usually just 1 average true range, not 2) you can massively increase your return overall, but you experience greater feelings of "loss" along the way because you risk your open-profits in exchange for much greater profits. That just simply takes guts.
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timwest PRO timwest
4 years ago
SLV did fall to a 22-day low, finally, just two days ago. If anyone increased their position, then they made a solid gain and didn't get stopped out. Because the 22-day range shifted, it made the target lift and therefore it was hit on Wednesday this week. These are the kind of techniques that will make you a big winner over time. Cutting your losers and not hoping or even expecting to win on every trade is so important. Recognizing a winner as it develops and then increasing your position in your winners will improve your odds of more consistent success over time. There will be a lot of losses to make up in your trading or investing career, so I don't buy and I don't suggest that "banking small profits" is ever the way to go. If you cut your winners when they are small, then you never get big profits and it takes big profits to overcome the drag of the high costs of trading. One of the big costs, of course, is losses. Just like going on a bad date is education that you can learn from, so is a loss teaching you something about the market condition. You can learn something from everything. Cheers to everyone.
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timwest PRO timwest
4 years ago
 
Annotated the chart to show:
1. the original sell signal
2. the original target (both 2 average range target and 22-day low target)
3. the new, lowered stop at the original entry price
4. the 22-bar channel so you can see when the 22-day low was reached
Cheers.
Tim
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