timwest
Long

Believer in Silver Rally - SLV Daily - Up for 2 months

AMEX:SLV   ISHARES SILVER TRUST
1406 11 27
Silver             Launched higher today for one big reason, the release of the employment number, but there were other factors setting up coming into this number.

Silver's triangle is well displayed here using the "highest lows" and "lowest highs" to create the pattern.

Silver             is rallying for a number of reasons:
1. Start of a new quarter (7.7% decline in 3rd Qtr)
2. Delayed reaction to Russian bombing in Syria
3. Concern over a weak US jobs number today
4. Realization that the Fed won't tighten (raise rates)

Trading Plan:
1. Buy the mid-point of today's spike rally in the next 5 days. 14.29 is the current middle of today's advance.
2. Exit at 15.54 target or in Mid-December when the time of the triangle runs out.
3. Stop out at 14.08, an average range below the apex of the triangle.

Tim

14.51 last @ 12:11PM EST October 2, 2015
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AdnanKhan
a year ago
"4. Realization that the Fed won't tighten (raise rates) " doesn't this statement conflicts to the Feds inflation targets? And does this mean that DXY will not be considered a safe haven in the near future?
Reply
Excellent, was thinking of targetting the range exp. retracement.
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
a year ago
For the FX traders:
snapshot
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ElizaBay PRO
a year ago
Thanks Tim. Very clear explanations. Might be obvious but I need more details. 7.72% decline from is measured from where to where and why? 43 bars 61/62 days, is it how may trading days in a quarter? If so why do you measure from a lower high in the mid quarter?
Reply
timwest PRO ElizaBay
a year ago
The decline in silver for the quarter (the entire box is the quarter) was 7.72%. The red arrow shows the begin->end of the quarter.

The triangle in blue is 43 bars (trading days) and is really 61/62 calendar days (including weekends and holidays). If the rally is measured off of the triangle, that's how long it will last.
Reply
BuySellBuySell
a year ago
I am targeting 200 say MA on daily chart as target. Currently around 15.94 level.
+1 Reply
amosky
a year ago
silver looking very bullish! formed a inverted head & shoulder pattern on the weekly mom charts.
1st target 16.25
2nd target if it stays above 1st, 18.25
+1 Reply
Victor.Y.F
a year ago
Thank you sir. I think Fed will be forced to raise rates when Euro bounces to 1.2000-1.2300 and XAU bounces to around 1200. I have read your chart about XAU/XAG very interesting and I think all pairs are correlations too. For example, USD/JPY= 120 means they are separate and if JPY rises then they are more related. So I'm thinking about JPY will rise 40% in next 2 year.
+1 Reply
Justiceisfalse
a year ago
A classic seasonal play in to Xmas.
+1 Reply
G13Man
a year ago
nice call , right back up to its down-trend
snapshot
+1 Reply
I'd be tempted to short, but I really don't want to long the dollar.
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