timwest
Long

SLV Silver Monthly Buy Signal using Time At Mode

AMEX:SLV   ISHARES SILVER TRUST
976 18 16
a year ago
The monthly chart in SLV             , iShares Silver Trust             is revealing a new buy signal that happened after October's price range expanded to the upside.

Silver             trades well on the Monthly time frame and has seen many profitable signals in the run-up and collapse. I have not always used the monthly time frame for analysis, but it is definitely an interesting time frame to analyze and trade from based on historical results.

The last distribution zone from 2013-2014 was from 17.75-23.84 ($6.09), which lasted for 14 months with 12 months at the mode of 18.7-19.0. Conservative projection from 19.0 down by $6.09 allow for a move to $12.91 which we have not seen yet. The time of the decline, 12 months, expired in September.

What we do to enter a trade using this methodology is to:
1. Buy over the high of the bar where time expired on the downtrend.
2. Buy a range expansion (September's range was $0.98), so when October was up $0.99 you can enter.
3. Buy pullback's to the mid-point of the range expansion from September's close at $13.87 up to $15.60, which is a rally of $1.73 rally, so the midpoint is $13.87 + $0.87 or $14.74 entry. We sit here at $14.49, so you get a better entry level that the "systematic" approach.

The last buy signal didn't fail, but the sell signal after that worked.

The exit strategy is the high from October at $15.60 and risk a drop under September's close at $13.87.

Tim

14.49 last SLV             - 11/3/2015 12:50PM EST
a year ago
Trade closed: stop reached: Great trade setups often take a few times to get right. I know the feeling of "wanting to be right" and I also can see the commodity markets are in a flush-out stage here with Copper pushing new lows. It's a rough time to just "buy and hold" because it looks like "buy and hope". The market drifted under the stop, actually, the very tight stop that I placed on this recommendation. I will stand aside and look for weekly range expansion on the upside to jump on board at higher levels. Historically it is wise to buy dips in silver and sell rallies, but prudence calls for me to say something since SLV went under the stop loss. Re-view every day for the next week for re-entry setups.
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Victor.Y.F
a year ago
Thank you! Tim. I'm holding a long lot and a new lot setup is sitting there.
Reply
timwest PRO Victor.Y.F
a year ago
Thanks for the reply. It's a "hard" trade to take but I think it makes sense. I don't discuss "how much" of a portfolio to put in this position, but it is worthy of a decent position. Keep me posted.
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Victor.Y.F timwest
a year ago
No worry sir, it's a normal trade. I'm drawing harmonic patterns on this too.
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timwest PRO
a year ago
I didn't label out the profits from this trading method - but the first trade was $18.83 LONG entry and with zero loss along the way, an exit at $37.54 for nearly a 100% gain. The second trade was a double-entry SHORT at $29.29 and a 2nd entry at $31 with a cover at $28.50 (for a $3.50 profit in a week) and an ultimate cover at $18.38 for a profit of $10.12. The third trade was the range expansion rally LONG that failed along with a 2nd entry LONG that failed also for a combined $3.50 loss in 3 weeks. The fourth trade was a double-entry SHORT trade at $17.09 and $17.35 that made full profits at $16.13 and the first piece exited at September 30 at $13.87. Depending on how you size your position size.
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timwest PRO timwest
a year ago
So - maybe you will say it has been on a hot streak and it is due for a correction (this methodology), but that is the decision we all make - to FOLLOW something that is working or not. If everyone else is making money at doing something (like flipping IPO's, or building spec houses), how long does it take for you to start doing it too?
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timwest PRO
a year ago
Update = the decline matched in 40% ranges (instead of using points)
snapshot
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timwest PRO
a year ago
And a 12-month 45% distribution also identically matched ...
snapshot
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NickCoulby PRO timwest
a year ago
Great chart.. Although I'm confused about the initial 12 bar mode count from the high, as it looks to be 13 before the RE lower. Also, is the consensus now to not include RE that still touch the mode as part of the mode?
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d1gopher57 timwest
a year ago
looks like this will fail to confirm upside expansion. Dollar too hot. I tired long myself.
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Victor.Y.F d1gopher57
a year ago
Hi, d1gopher57, please do not use trend strategy, watch out Dollar harmonic patterns.
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP Victor.Y.F
a year ago
Not everyone believes in harmonic patterns.
Reply
Victor.Y.F IvanLabrie
a year ago
Of course, It’s a range strategy. Only use under long term condition but now it’s better than other ways.
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d1gopher57 Victor.Y.F
a year ago
I'm not following this? But I also do not use harmonic patterns.
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Victor.Y.F d1gopher57
a year ago
It's my bad ^^ sorry ... ...
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Victor.Y.F
a year ago
Almost there, with SPX500 nice drop.
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Victor.Y.F
a year ago
I have to say this at this moment: because EURO will drop to 1.03-1.04 area for completing multiple harmonic patterns, XAU and XAG could drop new low for hunting stops to rise. I will hold my XAG long for very long term. So be patient.
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Victor.Y.F
a year ago
Thank you for you update, Tim. Nice evacuation^^. I think this is the moment called extreme speculative sentiment. To be realistic, I reviewed my 3-3-5 flat strcture and if XAU daily close under 1076.19 and XAG daily close under 13.717 then I will close my position.
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2use
7 months ago
Actually the set up still works - is at the volume spike now
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