Silver trades well on the Monthly time frame and has seen many profitable signals in the run-up and collapse. I have not always used the monthly time frame for analysis, but it is definitely an interesting time frame to analyze and trade from based on historical results.
The last distribution zone from 2013-2014 was from 17.75-23.84 ($6.09), which lasted for 14 months with 12 months at the mode of 18.7-19.0. Conservative projection from 19.0 down by $6.09 allow for a move to $12.91 which we have not seen yet. The time of the decline, 12 months, expired in September.
What we do to enter a trade using this methodology is to:
1. Buy over the high of the bar where time expired on the downtrend.
2. Buy a range expansion (September's range was $0.98), so when October was up $0.99 you can enter.
3. Buy pullback's to the mid-point of the range expansion from September's close at $13.87 up to $15.60, which is a rally of $1.73 rally, so the midpoint is $13.87 + $0.87 or $14.74 entry. We sit here at $14.49, so you get a better entry level that the "systematic" approach.
The last buy signal didn't fail, but the sell signal after that worked.
The exit strategy is the high from October at $15.60 and risk a drop under September's close at $13.87.
14.49 last SLV - 11/3/2015 12:50PM EST
Tim 12/7/2016 1:50AM EST
The last one is monstrous and it almost hits the target on that bar. Note how none of them were fully retraced until after the target was reached.