Today Solana was cut by over 1/3. I personally added to my collection of Solana to the tune of 132.09 at $85.13 on May 6th. I get it, today as brutal. I analyze Solana's price chart in the mornings and the evenings and also on Saturday to do my regular Weekend Update. In total, I have a lot of Solana. So my the analysis I share with my followers is the SAME analysis I use to strategically buy and sell for my own account. It's important you understand that.
House Rules
Today I was inundated with private chat messages saying everything from I lost people money, to I S*CK as an analyst, to where do I think it will bottom. I get it. Money is hard earned and no one wants to loose money. Markets have a lot of emotions attached to them so I get the emotional messages. When I look at my contribution to Trading View content as it pertains to Solana and the SP500, but mostly Solana. I think it's fair to say I've been right many more times than wrong. So here we go:
House Rules for those who follow me:
1. I'm not a fortune teller
2. From time to time I will not be accurate in my interpretation of the wave structure
3. I'm not a hypester nor am I a doomsday predictor.
4. I call balls and strikes to the best of my ability.
5. If you are belligerent in your messages to me, I will block you. YOU WILL NEVER READ A THING I WRITE ON THIS SITE.
6. Whether I was charging you for my analysis or free, the quality of my perspective on Solana and the SP500 would not increase or decrease. But please take note I do not charge you to follow me.
Bad News
Wow! Today hurt. I was calling for a potential bottom eventually around $51 but to be at $43 now. It's brutal. $100 points down in a month. That's crazy. Now that the emotion is out of the way lets Strictly talk Elliot Wave Rules.
This is a wave 4...of that, I'm in no doubt. Everyone reading this post can count. Look at my chart above and count the very distinct wave tops and bottoms. The rules of Elliot Wave Theory is wave 4 can IDEALLY retrace between .382 and .50 of wave 3. Red Box 1 on the left hand of the chart clearly states the areas of an ideal retrace. Additionally, the rules state that wave 4 can also retrace to the wave 4 bottom of one lesser degree. Red Box 2 is the prior wave 4 bottom on one lesser degree. That wave 4 bottom is $22. So, technically, we can go on until $23 before we bottom and perfectly be within the rules of an impulsive 5 wave structure. That's the bad news.
Good News
Slightly right of the middle of my chart above you notice some upside down triangles. One large and two smaller in size. Those are tools provided within the trading view app to show the Fibonacci Extensions from a three plot start. Those plots would typically include and wave 1 start and finish and a wave 2 bottom, or an A wave start and top and a B wave Bottom. These extensions mathematically show how far you are away from the original data points using Fibonacci laws of mathematics. Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) and Fibonacci are intertwined. The 2.618 extension is a normal area for extended wave structures to end. The most common is the 2.0. But extensions happen and the 2.618 usually targets those types of trends. Now here's some homework for some of you. Google "Fibonacci Confluence".
I outlined each sub wave within this decline from $143 and there's a TON of Fib Confluence at the $43 level. Will we bottom there? As a practitioner of EWP I would say that probabilities favor that scenario. But again, I'll refer you to my HOUSE RULES #1. The last piece of homework I'll suggest is to Google "fractals". This decline has formed a fractal pattern...and any corresponding advance "MAY" adopt the same pattern in reverse. That means the potential exists when Solana does advance it will be both the opposite of brutal and equally inexplicable.
What's my plan?
I bought 132.09 Solana at $85.13. I plan to average down but not today. I'm going to wait for price to prove itself to me. In as far as we have declined I need to see price take out $73 first. Why wait you ask? Because that's a clue for me. If Solana goes to $23 as stated earlier in my bad news section or if Solana goes BUST....I need price prove itself before I dedicate any more hard earned dollars. From there I need to see a corrective 3 way retrace, and then a breach of $73. Only then will I have confidence we bottomed to some extent. Until then...I don't gamble. Once I see breach of $73 again, I know probabilities increase the rally has the potential to be sustainable.
Best to All,
Chris
House Rules
Today I was inundated with private chat messages saying everything from I lost people money, to I S*CK as an analyst, to where do I think it will bottom. I get it. Money is hard earned and no one wants to loose money. Markets have a lot of emotions attached to them so I get the emotional messages. When I look at my contribution to Trading View content as it pertains to Solana and the SP500, but mostly Solana. I think it's fair to say I've been right many more times than wrong. So here we go:
House Rules for those who follow me:
1. I'm not a fortune teller
2. From time to time I will not be accurate in my interpretation of the wave structure
3. I'm not a hypester nor am I a doomsday predictor.
4. I call balls and strikes to the best of my ability.
5. If you are belligerent in your messages to me, I will block you. YOU WILL NEVER READ A THING I WRITE ON THIS SITE.
6. Whether I was charging you for my analysis or free, the quality of my perspective on Solana and the SP500 would not increase or decrease. But please take note I do not charge you to follow me.
Bad News
Wow! Today hurt. I was calling for a potential bottom eventually around $51 but to be at $43 now. It's brutal. $100 points down in a month. That's crazy. Now that the emotion is out of the way lets Strictly talk Elliot Wave Rules.
This is a wave 4...of that, I'm in no doubt. Everyone reading this post can count. Look at my chart above and count the very distinct wave tops and bottoms. The rules of Elliot Wave Theory is wave 4 can IDEALLY retrace between .382 and .50 of wave 3. Red Box 1 on the left hand of the chart clearly states the areas of an ideal retrace. Additionally, the rules state that wave 4 can also retrace to the wave 4 bottom of one lesser degree. Red Box 2 is the prior wave 4 bottom on one lesser degree. That wave 4 bottom is $22. So, technically, we can go on until $23 before we bottom and perfectly be within the rules of an impulsive 5 wave structure. That's the bad news.
Good News
Slightly right of the middle of my chart above you notice some upside down triangles. One large and two smaller in size. Those are tools provided within the trading view app to show the Fibonacci Extensions from a three plot start. Those plots would typically include and wave 1 start and finish and a wave 2 bottom, or an A wave start and top and a B wave Bottom. These extensions mathematically show how far you are away from the original data points using Fibonacci laws of mathematics. Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) and Fibonacci are intertwined. The 2.618 extension is a normal area for extended wave structures to end. The most common is the 2.0. But extensions happen and the 2.618 usually targets those types of trends. Now here's some homework for some of you. Google "Fibonacci Confluence".
I outlined each sub wave within this decline from $143 and there's a TON of Fib Confluence at the $43 level. Will we bottom there? As a practitioner of EWP I would say that probabilities favor that scenario. But again, I'll refer you to my HOUSE RULES #1. The last piece of homework I'll suggest is to Google "fractals". This decline has formed a fractal pattern...and any corresponding advance "MAY" adopt the same pattern in reverse. That means the potential exists when Solana does advance it will be both the opposite of brutal and equally inexplicable.
What's my plan?
I bought 132.09 Solana at $85.13. I plan to average down but not today. I'm going to wait for price to prove itself to me. In as far as we have declined I need to see price take out $73 first. Why wait you ask? Because that's a clue for me. If Solana goes to $23 as stated earlier in my bad news section or if Solana goes BUST....I need price prove itself before I dedicate any more hard earned dollars. From there I need to see a corrective 3 way retrace, and then a breach of $73. Only then will I have confidence we bottomed to some extent. Until then...I don't gamble. Once I see breach of $73 again, I know probabilities increase the rally has the potential to be sustainable.
Best to All,
Chris
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