IF YOU OWN, OR WANT TO OWN SOLANA, YOU WILL WANT TO READ THIS ENTIRE ARTICLE.
The above chart illustrates my analysis of Solana's final descent. First, let's start with what is not my interpretation.
Fact #1: We know we are in a wave 4
As a practitioner of Elliott Wave Theory there are signs that one looks for to immediately get your bearing as to where price is within a wave count. Whether the wave is impulsive or corrective, the MACD indicator provides all the clues needed to start labeling the various ups and downs of a price chart. MACD will print it's lowest (if move is down) or highest reading (if move is up) within the the heart of a 3rd wave (iii of 3) but only on the micro charts. On an hourly chart, (as above) that high or low print reading is consistent with the conclusion of wave 3. There's usually not enough bars, in contrast to a 3 minute chart, to register the minor wave iii. Therefore we know wave 3 has concluded. Since we all can count and 4 comes after 3, we know that is where we are within the wave theory analysis of this price chart.
NOT FACT...My Interpretation: Wave 4 is Done
Now technically I have no way to determine for a fact that wave 4 is done unless we have a breach of the wave 3 low and even then, how price is breaching the wave 3 low. Let me try to explain with an illustration the shear lunacy that a wave 4 can become. I consistently encourage my followers NOT TO TRADE A WAVE 4 due to complexity and opaque nature of trader's indecision in this area. The below chart is the SPX right before the COVID-19 Pandemic.
The red labels represent how price was progressing on the daily chart and the black labels represent how price actually reconciled.
After black wave (iii) we had a standard (red a,b,c) countertrend move which by all accounts was the conclusion of wave (iv). We knew this because price breached the black wave (iii) high in a 5 wave move (Labeled as Red Wave 1 on chart), followed by a 3 wave countertrend retracement (red wave 2). Things are progressing in text book fashion until price suddenly crashes and breaches red wave 2 bottom. This ceased to be impulsive and became a 3 wave move (which is countertrend) and thus reconciled lower than red wave (iv) in a devastating C wave for the final conclusion of wave (iv) in black. As an Elliotition the position stop would have been the red wave 2 bottom.
So, in reality with Solana I feel like it's 2020 all over again with the SPX about to be hit with the COVID-19 pandemic. We have to search for clues as to HOW price is progressing or retracing.
Case in Point: This is how I was counting Solana's daily progress as of mid April 2022.
Once we had overlap with my wave 1 up I posted to my followers that only bullish count left would be a leading diagonal which is a highly unreliable pattern. Subsequently it was not a leading diagonal and price has fallen precipitously since then.
As of right now, I have an ABC in place to complete wave 4 and no current evidence that price is about to rally in a C wave higher to complete an expanded wave 4. I originally thought that was how this wave 4 would play out. However, after taking the .786 Fibonacci retracement support area on May 26th, I choose to abandon that thesis and quickly informed my followers. As I have written about many times, I prefer to keep my chart labels simple until the simple is no longer rationally explained.
Therefore we should be experiencing the final machinations of a devastating decline that started in November 2021. As of now, I am expecting price to decline and ideally in an aggressive fashion as we should still be in a wave 3. If this is to end soon, an aggressive price decline is what I'm looking for. However, we decline is a very overlapping manner, this could portend a more complex pattern is emerging and things could get even worst as time goes on. As always I will update you twice a day Monday through Thursday, once on Friday and then with a Weekend Update.
IF YOU FOUND MY ANALYSIS HELPFUL PLEASE GIVE ME A THUMBS UP OR IF YOU DON'T FOLLOW ME BUT HAVE INTEREST IN SOLANA, MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW ME FOR THE LATEST PRICE ANALYSIS.
Best to All,
Chris
The above chart illustrates my analysis of Solana's final descent. First, let's start with what is not my interpretation.
Fact #1: We know we are in a wave 4
As a practitioner of Elliott Wave Theory there are signs that one looks for to immediately get your bearing as to where price is within a wave count. Whether the wave is impulsive or corrective, the MACD indicator provides all the clues needed to start labeling the various ups and downs of a price chart. MACD will print it's lowest (if move is down) or highest reading (if move is up) within the the heart of a 3rd wave (iii of 3) but only on the micro charts. On an hourly chart, (as above) that high or low print reading is consistent with the conclusion of wave 3. There's usually not enough bars, in contrast to a 3 minute chart, to register the minor wave iii. Therefore we know wave 3 has concluded. Since we all can count and 4 comes after 3, we know that is where we are within the wave theory analysis of this price chart.
NOT FACT...My Interpretation: Wave 4 is Done
Now technically I have no way to determine for a fact that wave 4 is done unless we have a breach of the wave 3 low and even then, how price is breaching the wave 3 low. Let me try to explain with an illustration the shear lunacy that a wave 4 can become. I consistently encourage my followers NOT TO TRADE A WAVE 4 due to complexity and opaque nature of trader's indecision in this area. The below chart is the SPX right before the COVID-19 Pandemic.
The red labels represent how price was progressing on the daily chart and the black labels represent how price actually reconciled.
After black wave (iii) we had a standard (red a,b,c) countertrend move which by all accounts was the conclusion of wave (iv). We knew this because price breached the black wave (iii) high in a 5 wave move (Labeled as Red Wave 1 on chart), followed by a 3 wave countertrend retracement (red wave 2). Things are progressing in text book fashion until price suddenly crashes and breaches red wave 2 bottom. This ceased to be impulsive and became a 3 wave move (which is countertrend) and thus reconciled lower than red wave (iv) in a devastating C wave for the final conclusion of wave (iv) in black. As an Elliotition the position stop would have been the red wave 2 bottom.
So, in reality with Solana I feel like it's 2020 all over again with the SPX about to be hit with the COVID-19 pandemic. We have to search for clues as to HOW price is progressing or retracing.
Case in Point: This is how I was counting Solana's daily progress as of mid April 2022.
Once we had overlap with my wave 1 up I posted to my followers that only bullish count left would be a leading diagonal which is a highly unreliable pattern. Subsequently it was not a leading diagonal and price has fallen precipitously since then.
As of right now, I have an ABC in place to complete wave 4 and no current evidence that price is about to rally in a C wave higher to complete an expanded wave 4. I originally thought that was how this wave 4 would play out. However, after taking the .786 Fibonacci retracement support area on May 26th, I choose to abandon that thesis and quickly informed my followers. As I have written about many times, I prefer to keep my chart labels simple until the simple is no longer rationally explained.
Therefore we should be experiencing the final machinations of a devastating decline that started in November 2021. As of now, I am expecting price to decline and ideally in an aggressive fashion as we should still be in a wave 3. If this is to end soon, an aggressive price decline is what I'm looking for. However, we decline is a very overlapping manner, this could portend a more complex pattern is emerging and things could get even worst as time goes on. As always I will update you twice a day Monday through Thursday, once on Friday and then with a Weekend Update.
IF YOU FOUND MY ANALYSIS HELPFUL PLEASE GIVE ME A THUMBS UP OR IF YOU DON'T FOLLOW ME BUT HAVE INTEREST IN SOLANA, MAKE SURE TO FOLLOW ME FOR THE LATEST PRICE ANALYSIS.
Best to All,
Chris
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