Potential 10% or 20% MARKET CORRECTION sooner than we think...
Hi guys this is my first time taking a deeper look into Economies and their correction cycles so please forgive me if there are a few things I'm missing. I have mainly been a fundamental long-term stock investor for the past 6 years. However, over the past 2, I've taken a liking to chart Technical Analysis. So if you have any constructive feedback I'd actually appreciate it.
Brad's Confidence Meter: ★★★☆☆
Looking at the chart…
You can see that I have a drawn an Elliot Wave. It is clear that waves 1 and 3 were definitely impulsive waves therefore I believe we might be seeing the top of our next impulsive wave 5 in the coming month.
Furthermore, one of the main points I would like to make is that typically when a Breadth Indicator is rising and the stock index is rising, it shows there is strong participation in the price rise. This means the price rise is more likely to sustain itself. However, in this case, we can see the breadth indicator and the index going in opposite directions (a divergence), which may be a big warning sign for a major reversal.
Beyond the chart...
As dark as this prediction may seem it is not all gloomy clouds ahead. I look forward to seeing this play out as corrections bring new opportunities to make greater wealth.
Not financial advice. Be safe and good luck!
~ ~ ~
Relevant links for support
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-10-correction-in-u-s-stocks-by-mid-august-says-this-forecaster-with-a-proven-track-record-11626380633
https://qz.com/2024661/the-us-inflation-rate-hit-its-highest-level-since-2008/
www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
Brad's Confidence Meter: ★★★☆☆
Looking at the chart…
You can see that I have a drawn an Elliot Wave. It is clear that waves 1 and 3 were definitely impulsive waves therefore I believe we might be seeing the top of our next impulsive wave 5 in the coming month.
Furthermore, one of the main points I would like to make is that typically when a Breadth Indicator is rising and the stock index is rising, it shows there is strong participation in the price rise. This means the price rise is more likely to sustain itself. However, in this case, we can see the breadth indicator and the index going in opposite directions (a divergence), which may be a big warning sign for a major reversal.
Beyond the chart...
- History suggests that a correction is about due. With the average correction being every 1.84 years. Even though markets don’t always adhere to averages we can still look at this range as a blueprint.
- The S&P 500’s Shiller P/E ratio is 37.99. Well and truly above the index’s mean of 16.84.
- US Inflation rates are at highs that haven't been seen since before the crash in 2008. The Fed will soon have to reign it in and increase its lending rates to decrease inflation.
- Margin debt is peaking at all-time highs. Historically there has been a spike in margin debt before extended bear runs in this last century.
As dark as this prediction may seem it is not all gloomy clouds ahead. I look forward to seeing this play out as corrections bring new opportunities to make greater wealth.
Not financial advice. Be safe and good luck!
~ ~ ~
Relevant links for support
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-10-correction-in-u-s-stocks-by-mid-august-says-this-forecaster-with-a-proven-track-record-11626380633
https://qz.com/2024661/the-us-inflation-rate-hit-its-highest-level-since-2008/
www.multpl.com/shiller-pe