Global debt out of control. How will all these companies who could barely manage their debt pre-Covid manage increased debt with higher borrowing costs and weakened consumer demand after Covid-19 lockdowns end?
Remdesivir was per Dr. Fauci "highly significant if you look at time to recovery." Sorry folks but it looks like GILD moved the goal posts (changed the endpoint) in the study and had to increase the patient enrollment substantially in order to achieve statistical significance. I'm a GILD shareholder, but this is not a Covid-19 magic bullet. I'm ecstatic if patients will be discharged earlier and if this helps to lessen the burden on our hospital systems, but based on comments to date, this treatment did not make a statistically significant impact on the death rate (Fauci seems to be hoping for a "trend")...in fact a separate study patients who go more drug died in a greater percentage (not statistically significant).
GDP contracting at faster rate than anticipated. Q2 will be a disaster. Q3 and Q4 will suffer too.
26 million and counting unemployed.
Germany now reporting a spike in infections (the European standard-bearer).
Singapore already had to go into lockdown after being touted as an Asian standard-bearer early in the crisis.
The FED doesn't have a clue what 2nd and 3rd order effects their market manipulation will have (and they've admitted as much)...hint: the future isn't pretty.
When SPX breaks the lower channel trend line and the RSI trend line, look out below.
Remdesivir was per Dr. Fauci "highly significant if you look at time to recovery." Sorry folks but it looks like GILD moved the goal posts (changed the endpoint) in the study and had to increase the patient enrollment substantially in order to achieve statistical significance. I'm a GILD shareholder, but this is not a Covid-19 magic bullet. I'm ecstatic if patients will be discharged earlier and if this helps to lessen the burden on our hospital systems, but based on comments to date, this treatment did not make a statistically significant impact on the death rate (Fauci seems to be hoping for a "trend")...in fact a separate study patients who go more drug died in a greater percentage (not statistically significant).
GDP contracting at faster rate than anticipated. Q2 will be a disaster. Q3 and Q4 will suffer too.
26 million and counting unemployed.
Germany now reporting a spike in infections (the European standard-bearer).
Singapore already had to go into lockdown after being touted as an Asian standard-bearer early in the crisis.
The FED doesn't have a clue what 2nd and 3rd order effects their market manipulation will have (and they've admitted as much)...hint: the future isn't pretty.
When SPX breaks the lower channel trend line and the RSI trend line, look out below.
Trade active:
For the first time it seems since March 23, the market (at least initially today) is turning down on bad economic news: exceeding Great Depression era unemployment figures paired with drops in personal spending and personal income greater than anticipated.
Recently it appeared that every bad economic metric was met with a bounce in the markets. If this inverse correlation starts to reverse, our anticipated downturn could be starting. SPX has not broken out of the channel yet and has a lot of support zones below to contend with. The buy the dip mentality may hold this thing up for a while yet.
Recently it appeared that every bad economic metric was met with a bounce in the markets. If this inverse correlation starts to reverse, our anticipated downturn could be starting. SPX has not broken out of the channel yet and has a lot of support zones below to contend with. The buy the dip mentality may hold this thing up for a while yet.
Trade active:
Let's see where this goes! Bull/bear fight underway.
Let's see where this goes! Bull/bear fight underway.
Trade active:
Is there any doubt this is a significant battle line? Tested and rejected 5 times on the minute time frame!
Break of 2892 still holds as an important area of resistance for the bulls. Might be broken in after hours if AMZN and AAPL pull back. AMZN's been the darling of the Covid-19 market...what happens when reality sets in that almost no business (even an online business that should thrive in this environment) is immune to the financial problems this virus creates for us all.
Break of 2892 still holds as an important area of resistance for the bulls. Might be broken in after hours if AMZN and AAPL pull back. AMZN's been the darling of the Covid-19 market...what happens when reality sets in that almost no business (even an online business that should thrive in this environment) is immune to the financial problems this virus creates for us all.
Trade active:
This appears to be getting more and more ripe for a fall:
Talk ratcheting up about punishing China (the markets love tariffs right?).
Probably difficult position for Trump--does he talk up a hard line on China to appease his base (as well as many who even oppose him) or does he back off to soothe the markets and keep them propped up (which has been a great claim to success of his).
He will be a magician if he can keep markets going up (of course with much help from the Fed and Treasury) while simultaneously re-invigorating a trade war (and possibly a cold war) with China.
Serious question for the market bulls: Has the market discounted the potential significant costs of deglobalization that will happen in the aftermath of Covid-19? Or to bulls believe that we'll go back to doing business as usual in and with China when this is done?
Talk ratcheting up about punishing China (the markets love tariffs right?).
Probably difficult position for Trump--does he talk up a hard line on China to appease his base (as well as many who even oppose him) or does he back off to soothe the markets and keep them propped up (which has been a great claim to success of his).
He will be a magician if he can keep markets going up (of course with much help from the Fed and Treasury) while simultaneously re-invigorating a trade war (and possibly a cold war) with China.
Serious question for the market bulls: Has the market discounted the potential significant costs of deglobalization that will happen in the aftermath of Covid-19? Or to bulls believe that we'll go back to doing business as usual in and with China when this is done?
Trade active:
Round 1 to the bears. Round 2 nearing an end?
Comment:
Trade active:
Breaking from descending wedge.
Trade active:
Sure seems to want to get back to that Bear/Bull line in the sand around 2852ish.
Might be a good spot to go into the weekend at: leave both bears and bulls in suspense as to next weeks direction.
Might be a good spot to go into the weekend at: leave both bears and bulls in suspense as to next weeks direction.
Trade active:
Bulls making their desperate push today.
Looking to get this back to the 2855 range with hopes to break resistance over 2860.
More than likely to fail as we appear to be in wave C of a larger wave 4. Wave 5 down will probably start sometime tomorrow.
As predicted a little prematurely Friday, 2850's looks to be a battleground the bulls cannot afford to lose. Don't be surprised if it fails this time around that we may head lower and then revisit one more time in a few days.
Looking to get this back to the 2855 range with hopes to break resistance over 2860.
More than likely to fail as we appear to be in wave C of a larger wave 4. Wave 5 down will probably start sometime tomorrow.
As predicted a little prematurely Friday, 2850's looks to be a battleground the bulls cannot afford to lose. Don't be surprised if it fails this time around that we may head lower and then revisit one more time in a few days.
Trade active:
www.reuters.com...m-idUSKBN22G2Q3?feedType=R...
Ouch: AIG "posted a 93% drop in quarterly adjusted profit, as it set aside money to cover claims related to the COVID-19 outbreak, which it called the single largest catastrophe loss the industry has ever seen."
Folks, the largest single catastrophe the industry has ever seen and we are down only a few percentage points from all time highs with a PE ratio and a CAPE ratio at extremes of valuations (and these will get worse as earnings estimates are revised down)?
Ouch: AIG "posted a 93% drop in quarterly adjusted profit, as it set aside money to cover claims related to the COVID-19 outbreak, which it called the single largest catastrophe loss the industry has ever seen."
Folks, the largest single catastrophe the industry has ever seen and we are down only a few percentage points from all time highs with a PE ratio and a CAPE ratio at extremes of valuations (and these will get worse as earnings estimates are revised down)?
Trade active:
www.cnbc.com/2020/05...per-day-by-june.html
Of note as well, the actual deaths actually significantly exceed the modelled deaths (and even lie outside the 2.5% range estimate for a period).
Denial can be very dangerous. Please, take Covid-19 seriously.
Of note as well, the actual deaths actually significantly exceed the modelled deaths (and even lie outside the 2.5% range estimate for a period).
Denial can be very dangerous. Please, take Covid-19 seriously.
Trade active:
I'm not the biggest fan of the head and shoulders pattern, but this does fit with a possible path in the next few days.
Trade active:
Trade active:
Turn coming?
Comment:
Comment:
Updated projections for next couple weeks.
Wave 1 down complete, wave 2 back up hit golden pocket (just over 61.8% retracement).
Wave 3 underway soon.
Wave 1 down complete, wave 2 back up hit golden pocket (just over 61.8% retracement).
Wave 3 underway soon.
Trade active:
Norway Cuts Rates to 0%, Warns of Worst Contraction Since WWII.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=57DhwlCb...
Despite $484 Billion Loan Program, a Flood of Small Business Bankruptcies Likely in Coming Months
Of course, nothing matters because MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN will carry the market higher no matter what carnage happens elsewhere right?
What happens when people realize when
www.youtube.com/watch?v=57DhwlCb...
Despite $484 Billion Loan Program, a Flood of Small Business Bankruptcies Likely in Coming Months
Of course, nothing matters because MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN will carry the market higher no matter what carnage happens elsewhere right?
What happens when people realize when
Comment:
.... time.com/5827659/sma...kruptcy-coronavirus/
As businesses are go bankrupt (or at minimum cut spending/advertising/etc to survive) this will dry up the customers for these services that so many of the MAGA stocks make their living on. Once this realization sets in, MAGA stocks will fall and the rest of the market will fall with it.
As businesses are go bankrupt (or at minimum cut spending/advertising/etc to survive) this will dry up the customers for these services that so many of the MAGA stocks make their living on. Once this realization sets in, MAGA stocks will fall and the rest of the market will fall with it.