When you look at the top of major crashes the sell signals are usually quite obvious. It's easy to look at them and wonder how anyone with a half decent eye for patterns and knowledge of previous tops not have spotted that. During my time betting on major reversals I've come to see the problem is usually not you miss the signals, you just see too many too soon.
The confluence of bearish signals at this point is incredibly obvious, but few people want to pay attention now.
Markets rocketing on rising rates has always been a prelude to crashes.
Rates at 5.5% is bad for stocks. It's a very simple thing to understand but no one cares now because such a big deal was made of this whilst stocks were rallying. Now no one cares about interest rates as a signal but it appears they've failed. They have actually, to this point, done everything we should expect in a top.
The recent rally has been largely supported by the AI stocks and there are multiple possible topping patterns on the AI stocks now.
See them in the post below:
The attitude to excessive risk is sickening enthusiastic. Like ... it's insane. I don't like to see people get rugged but if ever there were collections of people setting themselves up to be rugged in a market it's now. So many people have extreme concentrated risk and are totally belligerent about any sort of significant risk.
Read the comments on this post:
People are back to calling people scared shills trapped in shorts if you present a short thesis again. Has everyone forgotten how that went last time?
The huge weekly harmonic patterns are chart-art. It does not get any more bear porn-like than this.
If this hit when viewed after the fact it would be so stupidly obvious. Anyone teaching harmonics would be adding it to their textbooks to validate harmonics for major moves.
===============
If the big bear move comes now, it's really been so incredibly obvious.
The only thing that makes it tricky is it's been so painful betting on the obvious so many times that no one wants to.
So many times it's appeared obvious the market should fall and it's risen.
But none of this takes away from the fact we have a crazy confluence of patterns pointing to a crash move being on the horizon.
Not just a bear trend, like 2022, a real waterfall event.
Bears certainly can't be complacent. Bad things happen when obvious bear signals fail.
But some bulls really would be wise to be more cautious of false breakouts.
Terrible things happen from false breakouts.
The confluence of bearish signals at this point is incredibly obvious, but few people want to pay attention now.
Markets rocketing on rising rates has always been a prelude to crashes.
Rates at 5.5% is bad for stocks. It's a very simple thing to understand but no one cares now because such a big deal was made of this whilst stocks were rallying. Now no one cares about interest rates as a signal but it appears they've failed. They have actually, to this point, done everything we should expect in a top.
The recent rally has been largely supported by the AI stocks and there are multiple possible topping patterns on the AI stocks now.
See them in the post below:
The attitude to excessive risk is sickening enthusiastic. Like ... it's insane. I don't like to see people get rugged but if ever there were collections of people setting themselves up to be rugged in a market it's now. So many people have extreme concentrated risk and are totally belligerent about any sort of significant risk.
Read the comments on this post:
People are back to calling people scared shills trapped in shorts if you present a short thesis again. Has everyone forgotten how that went last time?
The huge weekly harmonic patterns are chart-art. It does not get any more bear porn-like than this.
If this hit when viewed after the fact it would be so stupidly obvious. Anyone teaching harmonics would be adding it to their textbooks to validate harmonics for major moves.
===============
If the big bear move comes now, it's really been so incredibly obvious.
The only thing that makes it tricky is it's been so painful betting on the obvious so many times that no one wants to.
So many times it's appeared obvious the market should fall and it's risen.
But none of this takes away from the fact we have a crazy confluence of patterns pointing to a crash move being on the horizon.
Not just a bear trend, like 2022, a real waterfall event.
Bears certainly can't be complacent. Bad things happen when obvious bear signals fail.
But some bulls really would be wise to be more cautious of false breakouts.
Terrible things happen from false breakouts.
