Honestly.
I've been someone who's been essentially trying to fade the move from the March lows compulsively. But, now that the bears have had at least two, perfectly prime, chances to take us lower instead they printed a symmetrical triangle that we broke out of on SPX, DJI (which was a channel/flag), and IWM/RUT which was obviously breaking to new highs.
The only thing that shows weakness on the charts are the momentum and stay at home stocks. Even the megacaps such as AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, and MSFT. And if these break down, yes, we're going a lot lower. But, until then IWM/RUT keeps hitting new ATH's (in which it hasn't hit since 2018)) and more than their fair share of "value" stocks are breaking, or attempting to break their COVID downtrends.
Now that the megacaps and momentum stocks have dragged us this far, who wouldn't the small caps, cyclical, and industrials be able to drag us another leg higher in the same fashion growth did in the beginning of this year??
We're flagging until we're not.
Edit with actual chart:
The only piece that does not fit with this puzzle is DXY. DXY is essentially the dollar against a basket of its peers. Including the largest holding which is the Euro (/6E) and then shortly after that the GBP. Today DXY took off like a bat out of hell after manufacturing and services PMI beat, which honestly doesn't make sense to me; after DXY being down below support to possibly start a new leg lower.
But instead we got an insane move off the lows which essentially turned out to be an epic fakeout/liquidity hunt and that sent gold/silver/peer currency pairs/crypto lower.
Why?
Time will tell. But it feels like a working out of/professional play to grab liquidity in any of these markets in my opinion.
Regardless. There's more tom "foolery" abound and I think it's meant to shake you, me, and everyone else out of our positions before they try and move us higher.
Or, they legitimately open up the trap door here and we're all holding the bag.
But, as of last night I would say 75% of Tradingview in general was bearish. 7/8-10 of posts were "short". You think they're going to let you have that?
Big banks/large funds are bullish for a reason, because they control the ether. Things may look, technically, as if they're about to shit the bed. But unless the greater market, aka the "smart" money comes along you're left getting stopped out.
We're essentially, in my opinion, going to be flat to slightly higher going into the end of the year as most funds/firms have made their money, and now their charter is buying the dip and selling the rip. Meaning day trading solely.
We're not going for a ride lower than anywhere lower than 3300, and especially lower than 3000 without an extreme catalyst. Think a credit crisis, or another large national lockdown because the virus has mutated and everyone is in danger. Until then we're going to keep seeing the "cycle" out of momentum and growth and into "small caps and cyclical" and really, by that, they mean RTY and YM.
There are thousands of reasons for us to head lower and back and fill. But, will any of those reasons be invoked going forward? Debatable.
Have a good night eveyerone.
I've been someone who's been essentially trying to fade the move from the March lows compulsively. But, now that the bears have had at least two, perfectly prime, chances to take us lower instead they printed a symmetrical triangle that we broke out of on SPX, DJI (which was a channel/flag), and IWM/RUT which was obviously breaking to new highs.
The only thing that shows weakness on the charts are the momentum and stay at home stocks. Even the megacaps such as AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, and MSFT. And if these break down, yes, we're going a lot lower. But, until then IWM/RUT keeps hitting new ATH's (in which it hasn't hit since 2018)) and more than their fair share of "value" stocks are breaking, or attempting to break their COVID downtrends.
Now that the megacaps and momentum stocks have dragged us this far, who wouldn't the small caps, cyclical, and industrials be able to drag us another leg higher in the same fashion growth did in the beginning of this year??
We're flagging until we're not.
Edit with actual chart:
The only piece that does not fit with this puzzle is DXY. DXY is essentially the dollar against a basket of its peers. Including the largest holding which is the Euro (/6E) and then shortly after that the GBP. Today DXY took off like a bat out of hell after manufacturing and services PMI beat, which honestly doesn't make sense to me; after DXY being down below support to possibly start a new leg lower.
But instead we got an insane move off the lows which essentially turned out to be an epic fakeout/liquidity hunt and that sent gold/silver/peer currency pairs/crypto lower.
Why?
Time will tell. But it feels like a working out of/professional play to grab liquidity in any of these markets in my opinion.
Regardless. There's more tom "foolery" abound and I think it's meant to shake you, me, and everyone else out of our positions before they try and move us higher.
Or, they legitimately open up the trap door here and we're all holding the bag.
But, as of last night I would say 75% of Tradingview in general was bearish. 7/8-10 of posts were "short". You think they're going to let you have that?
Big banks/large funds are bullish for a reason, because they control the ether. Things may look, technically, as if they're about to shit the bed. But unless the greater market, aka the "smart" money comes along you're left getting stopped out.
We're essentially, in my opinion, going to be flat to slightly higher going into the end of the year as most funds/firms have made their money, and now their charter is buying the dip and selling the rip. Meaning day trading solely.
We're not going for a ride lower than anywhere lower than 3300, and especially lower than 3000 without an extreme catalyst. Think a credit crisis, or another large national lockdown because the virus has mutated and everyone is in danger. Until then we're going to keep seeing the "cycle" out of momentum and growth and into "small caps and cyclical" and really, by that, they mean RTY and YM.
There are thousands of reasons for us to head lower and back and fill. But, will any of those reasons be invoked going forward? Debatable.
Have a good night eveyerone.
