Knowing, after the fact, the March decline was extraordinary I began tracking an inevitable recovery. In anticipation I had identified 14 historic declines of similar magnitude over the last 100 years. The current event became 15.
A key milestone of recovery is the eventual cross of MACD/PPO vs related signal line (e.g., fast vs slow Exponential Moving Averages). From that event forward I then track weekly recovery by % gain/loss and include an average gain/loss. The process uses weekly data.
The crossing event happened 5/18/2020 (indicated by Red arrow for MACD at bottom and Yellow arrow as "start" date/price). At present, 11 weeks later, the subsequent gain is closely tracking the Average gain/loss of the prior 14 events.
Note the "start" for comparison is at the MACD/Signal crossing event on 5/18/2020, which is after the market's earlier bottom, and is the case for the comparative 14 events. This event's bottom was in March 2020. Thus the +10.68% gain from 5/2020 forward is incremental to substantial gain from March to May. Same will be true for whatever outcome occurs by week 52 in 2021.
Not a promise, but would be very nice to see that magnitude of gain by 5/2021. The majority of the 14 prior events track higher, with those having a rapid start continuing to outperform.
The 2020 event ranks 5th after week 11.
A key milestone of recovery is the eventual cross of MACD/PPO vs related signal line (e.g., fast vs slow Exponential Moving Averages). From that event forward I then track weekly recovery by % gain/loss and include an average gain/loss. The process uses weekly data.
The crossing event happened 5/18/2020 (indicated by Red arrow for MACD at bottom and Yellow arrow as "start" date/price). At present, 11 weeks later, the subsequent gain is closely tracking the Average gain/loss of the prior 14 events.
- Average of prior 14 events: +10.85% at week 11
- 2020 event: +10.68% at week 11
Note the "start" for comparison is at the MACD/Signal crossing event on 5/18/2020, which is after the market's earlier bottom, and is the case for the comparative 14 events. This event's bottom was in March 2020. Thus the +10.68% gain from 5/2020 forward is incremental to substantial gain from March to May. Same will be true for whatever outcome occurs by week 52 in 2021.
Not a promise, but would be very nice to see that magnitude of gain by 5/2021. The majority of the 14 prior events track higher, with those having a rapid start continuing to outperform.
The 2020 event ranks 5th after week 11.