As is its habit, the S&P 500 is in a channel.
It is always either in a channel, a bear market, or uncertainty (after a top or bottom)
Let's simply look at past examples
2013 - 2014:
2004 - 2008: You could say it stayed in this one 600 to 1000 days
2017:
1991 - 1995:
1995 - 2000: 700 to 1300 days in the channel depends where you start
1984 - 1987:
1953 - 1955:
1958 - 1959:
My personal opinion is we remain in this obvious channel a few more weeks, but we probably can't stay in it for very long, and I believe the price will reach 5000 points by Q1 2022. The FED will not pop the bubble, it has no reason to come crashing now (institutions were net sellers since 2009 they can't turn bearish they already are). I think the price will break the channel up rather than below, all the retail day traders with < 2 years experience (that haven't even started yet) giving me pro tips will add fuel to the rocket, it will look at least like 2017 when the price went vertical and possibly like 1999/1989 Japan.
Talking of day gamblers I heard of a study that showed institutions made money day trading, simply from the liquidity they provided to retail day traders, retail day traders 99.9% of which lost money with a remaining 0.1% "winning" but every single one of these "winners" making less than buy & hold, lost money first with fees of course, that's got to be around half of their losses or more, and secondly the (entire) rest of their loss was from buying above or selling below market price due to the urgency nature of their ridiculous "aggressive" strategies. This urgency is where the institutions, using passive orders, made money. The "aggressive" trades of institutions that make them money are of course made over much higher time horizons.
To be more precise the paper I link below breaks down retail day gamblers losses into 4 categories:
- Transaction taxes (34%)
- Commissions (32%) - Broker always wins
- Trading losses (27%) - That aggressive buy at market
- Market-timing losses (7%) - The core of the whole thing represents 7%
The trading and market-timing losses of individual investors (34%) represent gains for institutional investors. The institutional gains are eroded, but not eliminated by the commissions and transaction taxes that they pay. As you can see 93% of their results have nothing to do with their strategy, skill, risk management. Day trading is stupid. 93% ... Lmao all the day trading courses and their years of trying to improve all focus on the 7%. Genius. 93% of the potential improvement is as difficult as a finger snap "just don't day trade". All these delusional gamblers crack me up.
faculty.haas.berkele...orsLose_RFS_2009.pdf
I have been long for nearly a year now. I will sell along the way when it gets green and a bit extended, then buy when there is a pullback, bull bias as long as it is in the channel. And I will hold to at least 5000 points. All of those cycles last 1.5 to 4 years. So you got your short term time frame here, 1 to 4 years. These cycles become really obvious at maybe 2/3 of being over. I bought near the end of uncertainty betting the bear market was over, and I'm simply holding for the 1.5 - 4 years this bull channel will last (been 300 days for now).
Trading indices truly is much easier than Forex.
70 years of price action
It is always either in a channel, a bear market, or uncertainty (after a top or bottom)
Let's simply look at past examples
2013 - 2014:
2004 - 2008: You could say it stayed in this one 600 to 1000 days
2017:
1991 - 1995:
1995 - 2000: 700 to 1300 days in the channel depends where you start
1984 - 1987:
1953 - 1955:
1958 - 1959:
My personal opinion is we remain in this obvious channel a few more weeks, but we probably can't stay in it for very long, and I believe the price will reach 5000 points by Q1 2022. The FED will not pop the bubble, it has no reason to come crashing now (institutions were net sellers since 2009 they can't turn bearish they already are). I think the price will break the channel up rather than below, all the retail day traders with < 2 years experience (that haven't even started yet) giving me pro tips will add fuel to the rocket, it will look at least like 2017 when the price went vertical and possibly like 1999/1989 Japan.
Talking of day gamblers I heard of a study that showed institutions made money day trading, simply from the liquidity they provided to retail day traders, retail day traders 99.9% of which lost money with a remaining 0.1% "winning" but every single one of these "winners" making less than buy & hold, lost money first with fees of course, that's got to be around half of their losses or more, and secondly the (entire) rest of their loss was from buying above or selling below market price due to the urgency nature of their ridiculous "aggressive" strategies. This urgency is where the institutions, using passive orders, made money. The "aggressive" trades of institutions that make them money are of course made over much higher time horizons.
To be more precise the paper I link below breaks down retail day gamblers losses into 4 categories:
- Transaction taxes (34%)
- Commissions (32%) - Broker always wins
- Trading losses (27%) - That aggressive buy at market
- Market-timing losses (7%) - The core of the whole thing represents 7%
The trading and market-timing losses of individual investors (34%) represent gains for institutional investors. The institutional gains are eroded, but not eliminated by the commissions and transaction taxes that they pay. As you can see 93% of their results have nothing to do with their strategy, skill, risk management. Day trading is stupid. 93% ... Lmao all the day trading courses and their years of trying to improve all focus on the 7%. Genius. 93% of the potential improvement is as difficult as a finger snap "just don't day trade". All these delusional gamblers crack me up.
faculty.haas.berkele...orsLose_RFS_2009.pdf
I have been long for nearly a year now. I will sell along the way when it gets green and a bit extended, then buy when there is a pullback, bull bias as long as it is in the channel. And I will hold to at least 5000 points. All of those cycles last 1.5 to 4 years. So you got your short term time frame here, 1 to 4 years. These cycles become really obvious at maybe 2/3 of being over. I bought near the end of uncertainty betting the bear market was over, and I'm simply holding for the 1.5 - 4 years this bull channel will last (been 300 days for now).
Trading indices truly is much easier than Forex.
70 years of price action
