SPX EOW Close Chart

Well its a very bad close imo.

Bullz have only one chance to hold todays close in B wave down and rally up to 3800 even!

But if it instead (higher odds imo) we crash from the open, then my pathway will be
- Down to 3400
- Bounce to 3500
- Down to my 3212 (better hold it)
If 32 handle wont hold, we will see 2855SPX by 24th!

Be ready! Im sure majority is not ready for this type of scenario!

Also I think we bottom EOM or early Nov, how low only the GOD knows!

Im short lots of SPY puts but will do ES and NQ short on Sunday after I see the opening reaction of the futures.

Have a great weekend

Comment:

After looking at the charts, I might do long if Sunday open wont be a big gap down below 3580ES. Holding 3580 will be bullish for a test of 3800.
Too much of a bearish sentiment out there. I would call it bullish if it wont be a Bear Market, as the amount of puts bought by the institution are higher chance to be a bet for lower then hedging! Keep that in mind trying to catch the knife, so far this year the price is making lower lows and lower highs.

Watch Sunday open, will be telling imo.

Im traveling a whole day tomorrow back home, wont be able to post. Thats why posting my comment now.

I dont mind loosing on my lotto puts, I will just get those for next Monday if we see 3800 by Tuesday.

A good retracement here into the Fri close is clearly bullish setup. Since there is also a window for a crash, its a tough bet at this point (mid range). My bet is we start crashing, if not on Monday then mid next week. I do expect 21-24th to be brutal and possibly temp bottom on Tuesday next week.

Me thinks we will see 32 handle as an ideal target for this move, but if it really wants to take everyone one out, we will see 28 and even 24 handle! Mind those targets when sizing your longs.

At the mean time we are getting to a perfect window for the low of the year, should come end of the month of Oct or early Nov. Then Nov 21st week can be a higher low before the Santa Rally. Next Top should come in Jan we could fall to even lower levels by Mar/Apr of the next year before the maj bottom will be seen.

Have a good weekend everyone!

Comment:

Those who followed Sunday am update, should be able to get at least some portion of this move up. I did, but was in transit and couldnt trade the bottom but did few longs this am.

Today's level of importance is 3698.50SPX, bull bear line on closing level!