Thanks for viewing. Interesting times indeed.
Apologies about the clutter, I was unwilling to remove my overlaid graph of Shiller PE - which has dropped 11% since January signalling a market turning point.
So I though I would post again with a more detailed wave count - please note I have placed a fibonacci retracement overlay for the current wave only. However, if this is the final wave in the cycle then the retracement should be for the entire structure not just the 2009 to present wave.
I am not a market mover or even a market participant - just an interested observer. The likelihood I am able to call the top of the S&P bull Supercycle - which started in the 1800s - is not high.
My tentative expectations: After the ending ABC zig-zag correction investors will have taken a significant hit and may be quickly reconsidering investing in volatile high PE ratio equities while much safer fixed interest investments returns are rising (I expect 10 year treasury bonds to to top 4.1% in 2020). Pattern traders will see something like a "head an shoulders" topping pattern and may sell / short the market (personally I don't trade chart patterns). EW traders will see that a correction is inbound and potentially do the same. Other traders will see a lower high and a lower low. Volume will tail off as all traders / investors wait to see what develops. This will continue until PE ratios return to levels that provide a more attractive return on investment.
In William Poundstone's "How to Predict the Unpredictable," he recommends selling equities when the PE is both above 30 and dips from its highs by 5%+ (these 2 requirements are now met for the S&P) and then rebuying when PE reaches 13.
The likelihood that money will rush in to form support for a new push up is low in my opinion in light of the already over-extended PE ratios, high market volatility, global instability, high debt levels, increasingly attractive fixed income options, and tailing off of QE.
Apologies about the clutter, I was unwilling to remove my overlaid graph of Shiller PE - which has dropped 11% since January signalling a market turning point.
So I though I would post again with a more detailed wave count - please note I have placed a fibonacci retracement overlay for the current wave only. However, if this is the final wave in the cycle then the retracement should be for the entire structure not just the 2009 to present wave.
I am not a market mover or even a market participant - just an interested observer. The likelihood I am able to call the top of the S&P bull Supercycle - which started in the 1800s - is not high.
My tentative expectations: After the ending ABC zig-zag correction investors will have taken a significant hit and may be quickly reconsidering investing in volatile high PE ratio equities while much safer fixed interest investments returns are rising (I expect 10 year treasury bonds to to top 4.1% in 2020). Pattern traders will see something like a "head an shoulders" topping pattern and may sell / short the market (personally I don't trade chart patterns). EW traders will see that a correction is inbound and potentially do the same. Other traders will see a lower high and a lower low. Volume will tail off as all traders / investors wait to see what develops. This will continue until PE ratios return to levels that provide a more attractive return on investment.
In William Poundstone's "How to Predict the Unpredictable," he recommends selling equities when the PE is both above 30 and dips from its highs by 5%+ (these 2 requirements are now met for the S&P) and then rebuying when PE reaches 13.
The likelihood that money will rush in to form support for a new push up is low in my opinion in light of the already over-extended PE ratios, high market volatility, global instability, high debt levels, increasingly attractive fixed income options, and tailing off of QE.
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