SPX in EW 2 of Impulsive Shark DT after Island Top Reversal

Up TL broken; DT in progress, Bear Rally = EW 2; Chart details suffice IMO; Shark Nenstar is in play, Tar 2498-2530;
Res Ipse Loquitur!

EW Projections are Estimates based on most common occurring Fibos;
This is NOT investment advice; trade at your own risk; GLTA!!

Ref: JJ Murphy, Fig 4.10A, p. 72 (TL Rejection) and EW Chapter Theory:
cdn.preterhuman.net/...inancial Markets.pdf

Ref: EW Leg common Fibos, ref chart: "Characteristics of Waves":
www.metatrader5.com/...liott/elliott_theory

Trade active:

Shorted IWM, QQQ, DIA, SPY on the gap up Tues 6/16.

Comment:

Ferocious rally AH and another monster gap; could get to the .786 Fibo. Add if it does. In $10 bear spreads hedged against the weeklies.

Comment:

Added to IWM pos and entered short on FB in the 26 Jun 237.5P; making a triple top with H&S on the right shoulder.

Comment:

Closed half pos the reversal was so sharp taking profits!

Trade active:

Traded for hours at the Fibo, easing off now... holding shorts tonight, these puts are hedged with weeklies spread at $10 below strike, sold the short legs for ~$1 with 3 days to expiration, premiums are high with VIX ~40. Could see another big pop in VIX imo.

Comment:

2PM pop from forced liquidations was weak, suggesting the shorts are already covered; again there will be no support from bears looking to cover in a cascade IMO.

Comment:

Rejecting from Fibo AH. Fill the chart!

Trade active:

Opened at the Fibo and filled the gap; lifts back to Fibo; added to positions, now entered IWM short on R2K

Comment:

Closed my short legs on the lift and entered lower strike shorts on Friday exp now $15 OTM on short legs, getting .45 - .55c on these shorties

Trade closed manually:

Took these out on the AM volatility, very wary of a short squeeze possibility; sell the rallies IMO

Comment:

Yes, short squeezing the bears atm; expect modestly higher close as we saw in Asia and Europe.

Trade closed manually:

I closed the shorts early on anticipating a short squeeze see related post on RUT; sorry my updates lag, trade at your own risk, always!

Trade active:

Re-entering small pos at higher strikes, rolled up in effect, on the midday lift.

Comment:

Back in DIA IWM SPY QQQ in 02 Jul series, short the 19 Jun weeklies in $10 bear spreads. I do jump in and out of these, jockey for position, always watch for squeeze.

Comment:

In effect I rolled up all strikes $2 closer to the money and pushed exp dates out a week to the 02 Jul holiday special exp date. This improves R/R; all pos are hedged with Friday's expirations between $8 -$10 OTM; if it sells sooner the spreads win, if it lifts on a squeeze the short legs defray drawdown. I got between 0.81 - .95c for the weekly shorties!

Comment:

Trading just under the Fibo again. Watch for 2PM short squeeze when retail brokers force liquidations; watch for EOD squeeze with short covering and "Buy on Close" orders. Look to add to shorts at these junctures.

Comment:

Intraday it forms a pennant; continuation pattern for lower price.

Comment:

Added to positions with NQ over 10K again and SPX trading at 3133 just at or slightly above Fibo.

Comment:

NQ retreats from 10K.... RUT divergent; SPX volume diminished on this last lift, not many buyers left up here.

Trade active:

INTRADAY BEAR FLAG BROKE @1400 EXACTLY!

Trade active:

SHE BROKE SHE BROKE SHE BROKE! SELLITALLLL!!!

Comment:

At 15:59 I bot 10 Jun 20 IWM 142 puts @$2.31. Pure gamble IMO; let's see if it tanks.

Comment:

Futures sold off AH; MMs dumping shares before Thursday; IMO we got a correction going, the depth and severity TBD.

IF it forms ABC, 2800 is likely support.

If it's an impulsive move, the next move will extend from 1.272 - 1.618 depth of the first leg, defining the complete movement.

Comment:

A Bullish Formation is apparent in the weekly chart; a Cup & Handle is present, the opening gap might well be the completion of the Handle. Will be closing all my shorts on the opening gap whatever it gives us.

Rather miss a short than be a pig at slaughterhouse!

Trade closed manually:

Made bank off these puts and took what was given. Going Long now on my Cup & Handle idea; bouncing from support IMO: GLTA!!

Comment:

Clear C&H now and this market is NOT tanking off and NOT filling in this chart.

IMO will invalidate; waiting on clear direction. In cash atm; stay safe!

Comment:

Yeah futurz pumping here we go again... IMO headed up to close the gap at 3330.

Trade active:

Entered bear spreads in IWM/SPY/DIA/QQQ in July puts short the weeklies (short dailies in SPY). $10 spreads. Cautiously Bearish as the triangle pennant formation resolved to downside Friday 6/19.

Trade active:

Shorted FB over $240 in the Jul 240 PUT, short weekly 227.5s.

Comment:

Another bear flag rejected from 3120 on 6/22; maybe it's headed lower from here. Banked gains on FB.

Comment:

Current administration more moronic and inept since BUchanan IMO ("I am the last President of these United States"):
www.marketwatch...over-2020-06-22?mod=home-p...

Comment:

Nice analysis and synopsis; author suggests lower highs pattern setup for an EW3; P/C ratio is <0.5 for 20 days, this is a contrarian bear signal:
www.marketwatch...ound-2020-06-22?mod=mw_quo...

Trade active:

Playing close the gap in weeklies on SPY/IWM/QQQ

Comment:

Shorted FB as well in Jul 242.5P

Trade active:

Traded out of the red on dailies playuing Fade Gap Game; rolled dailies into July ITM puts. Shorting dailies on drops against the long puts, creating bear spreads.

Comment:

She sells!

Trade closed manually:

Took bank off the table it might sell more but its oversold IMO and there's a gap to fill; short the rallies!

Trade active:

On EOD lift got back into bear spreads; much smaller pos. Expect some continuation selling Thurs; these are hedged.

Comment:

In 10 Jul DIA 255P, SPY 305P, IWM 138.5P, QQQ 244P; hedged in $8 spreads on Friday dailies.
Six contracts per pos.

Trade active:

Bear flag intraday near EOD; can gap either way IMO; watch last 5m closely: I hedged with a small 5 contract QQQ Bull spread, for insurance.

Comment:

Adding 4 contracts each to the bear spreads; holding the calls in case!

Comment:

All my long contracts are closing ITM; going for LOTD and a gap down in AM IMO

Comment:

IN AH trade short covering pops the price. IMO we might get a cascade Thursday.

Trade active:

Closed shorts going to bull spreads expect a bounce from oversold MFI

Trade active:

Closed the bull spreads on reaction rally doubled my gains on the day; up 10% on puts and 10% on calls, pretty slick day trading IMO; it could sell again now, or bull Friday, who knows?! taking my chips off the crazy table.

Short the rallies IMO!

Comment:

Entered a long-term GM bull spread in August $25 calls short the weeklies; sell weeklies every week until the $2 calls are paid for!

Trade active:

Back in bull spreads on QQQ, SPY buying on a higher low intraday, in the Jul 2 305C short 310 Friday exp; 244C short 248s.

Trade closed manually:

Made it going down, up and up. Closed all but holding GM. Done day trading for Thursday, gain of 28% on at-risk positions, not bad for one day IMO.

Account is up 25% over past two weeks. Wish I could expect to annualize that return, lol , it's 625% annual!

Fear drains out of markets, might have one more sell wave left in it but we're getting higher lows again.

Trade active:

Intraday bull flag rising wedge; shorting FB, SPY

Comment:

Surprise! Calls had been well served! FB bearish but SPY turned- will it last? Bought a bull spread, now straddled in SPY, holding both sides. GLTA!

Trade closed manually:

This unlikely combination produced a nice opening gain, closed all out, watching. QQQ is little changed suggests to me bullishness may return soon... more MOMO lurking?

Comment:

Resting on the lower TL at 3030. If it breaks here will cascade IMO... danger zone.

Trade active:

I see inverted H&S intrday; resting on support at higher low; imo bear campaign may be easing off, see if it pops up off TL; took small pos in bull spreads on spy, qqq in 2 week contracts short expiring dailies, just 6 spreads each.

Looking at BTD on FB...

Trade closed: stop reached:

Yeah small loss on this not turning here IMO holding nothin over weekend as Monday could be anything!

Trade closed manually:

On EOD Friday I bought 20 bear spreads on QQQ and SPY. Today they made money, I take what the markets give me; short legs earned more than the long legs lost! AMazing... prudent to sit in cash at this juncture IMO.

Light volume trading tends to lift and Tuesday could bull in a countertrend wave. Got yard work and errands to run; not watching this grind all day!
Cheers, GLTA!

Trade active:

Back in it shorting this rally in DIA / QQQ / SPY / IWM bear spreads, long July atm puts, short 30 Junes in $3 spreads, getting >1$ for the short legs, has broken under rising TL and bearish IMO.

Not a big pos, could def bull more on Tues, will collect the short leg premiums if it does.

Trade active:

SPY and DIA contracts moved ITM. Added 5 each to QQQ, IWM positions. Now short $4k OTM dailies exp 30 Jun. Either collect $4k Tues, or close if these move ITM.

Trade active:

Added 5 each to DIA, SPY spreads, now in 15 spreads each index. Making a lovely bear flag IMO...

Trade active:

Rolled up short legs covering $1 contracts for 0.18c; added to long legs in bear spreads now in 20 spreads each index short the 01/02 Jul dailies.

Drawdown on the long puts nearly entirely offset by gains on the shorties!

It is a falling wedge; should backtest the wedge TL IMO. Tar ~2960 +/- 20 pips

Trade active:

Closed overnight positions for slight gains and reopened higher strikes in 10 July bear spreads.

Trade active:

Has broken upside from falling wedge; expect a backtest in a day or two to give an inverted H&S pattern; buy it there IMO; presently short, intraday QQQ has formed H&S, DJI gave a shooting star Doji (returned to opening price).

Comment:

MOMO gone wild LOL, all the action is in FAANGMs

Trade closed: stop reached:

This idea appears to be invalid.

Comment:

Another Exhaustion Gap?!? There seems to be no end of them... LOL!