DaddySawbucks
Short

SPX in EW 2 of Impulsive Shark DT after Island Top Reversal

TVC:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Up TL broken; DT in progress, Bear Rally = EW 2; Chart details suffice IMO ; Shark Nenstar is in play, Tar 2498-2530;
Res Ipse Loquitur!

EW Projections are Estimates based on most common occurring Fibos;
This is NOT investment advice; trade at your own risk; GLTA!!

Ref: JJ Murphy, Fig 4.10A, p. 72 (TL Rejection) and EW Chapter Theory:
https://cdn.preterhuman.net/texts/unsort...

Ref: EW Leg common Fibos, ref chart: "Characteristics of Waves":
https://www.metatrader5.com/en/terminal/...
Trade active: Shorted IWM, QQQ, DIA, SPY on the gap up Tues 6/16.
Comment: Ferocious rally AH and another monster gap; could get to the .786 Fibo. Add if it does. In $10 bear spreads hedged against the weeklies.
Comment: Added to IWM pos and entered short on FB in the 26 Jun 237.5P; making a triple top with H&S on the right shoulder.
Comment: Closed half pos the reversal was so sharp taking profits!
Trade active: Traded for hours at the Fibo, easing off now... holding shorts tonight, these puts are hedged with weeklies spread at $10 below strike, sold the short legs for ~$1 with 3 days to expiration, premiums are high with VIX ~40. Could see another big pop in VIX imo.
Comment: 2PM pop from forced liquidations was weak, suggesting the shorts are already covered; again there will be no support from bears looking to cover in a cascade IMO.
Comment: Rejecting from Fibo AH. Fill the chart!
Trade active: Opened at the Fibo and filled the gap; lifts back to Fibo; added to positions, now entered IWM short on R2K
Comment: Closed my short legs on the lift and entered lower strike shorts on Friday exp now $15 OTM on short legs, getting .45 - .55c on these shorties
Trade closed manually: Took these out on the AM volatility, very wary of a short squeeze possibility; sell the rallies IMO
Comment: Yes, short squeezing the bears atm; expect modestly higher close as we saw in Asia and Europe.
Trade closed manually: I closed the shorts early on anticipating a short squeeze see related post on RUT; sorry my updates lag, trade at your own risk, always!
Trade active: Re-entering small pos at higher strikes, rolled up in effect, on the midday lift.
Comment: Back in DIA IWM SPY QQQ in 02 Jul series, short the 19 Jun weeklies in $10 bear spreads. I do jump in and out of these, jockey for position, always watch for squeeze.
Comment: In effect I rolled up all strikes $2 closer to the money and pushed exp dates out a week to the 02 Jul holiday special exp date. This improves R/R; all pos are hedged with Friday's expirations between $8 -$10 OTM; if it sells sooner the spreads win, if it lifts on a squeeze the short legs defray drawdown. I got between 0.81 - .95c for the weekly shorties!
Comment: Trading just under the Fibo again. Watch for 2PM short squeeze when retail brokers force liquidations; watch for EOD squeeze with short covering and "Buy on Close" orders. Look to add to shorts at these junctures.
Comment: Intraday it forms a pennant; continuation pattern for lower price.
Comment: Added to positions with NQ over 10K again and SPX trading at 3133 just at or slightly above Fibo.
Comment: NQ retreats from 10K.... RUT divergent; SPX volume diminished on this last lift, not many buyers left up here.
Trade active: INTRADAY BEAR FLAG BROKE @1400 EXACTLY!
Trade active: SHE BROKE SHE BROKE SHE BROKE! SELLITALLLL!!!
Comment: At 15:59 I bot 10 Jun 20 IWM 142 puts @$2.31. Pure gamble IMO; let's see if it tanks.
Comment: Futures sold off AH; MMs dumping shares before Thursday; IMO we got a correction going, the depth and severity TBD.

IF it forms ABC, 2800 is likely support.

If it's an impulsive move, the next move will extend from 1.272 - 1.618 depth of the first leg, defining the complete movement.
Comment: A Bullish Formation is apparent in the weekly chart; a Cup & Handle is present, the opening gap might well be the completion of the Handle. Will be closing all my shorts on the opening gap whatever it gives us.

Rather miss a short than be a pig at slaughterhouse!
Trade closed manually: Made bank off these puts and took what was given. Going Long now on my Cup & Handle idea; bouncing from support IMO: GLTA!!
Comment: Clear C&H now and this market is NOT tanking off and NOT filling in this chart.

IMO will invalidate; waiting on clear direction. In cash atm; stay safe!
Comment: Yeah futurz pumping here we go again... IMO headed up to close the gap at 3330.
Trade active: Entered bear spreads in IWM/SPY/DIA/QQQ in July puts short the weeklies (short dailies in SPY). $10 spreads. Cautiously Bearish as the triangle pennant formation resolved to downside Friday 6/19.
Trade active: Shorted FB over $240 in the Jul 240 PUT, short weekly 227.5s.
Comment: Another bear flag rejected from 3120 on 6/22; maybe it's headed lower from here. Banked gains on FB.
Comment: Current administration more moronic and inept since BUchanan IMO ("I am the last President of these United States"):
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-fu...
Comment: Nice analysis and synopsis; author suggests lower highs pattern setup for an EW3; P/C ratio is <0.5 for 20 days, this is a contrarian bear signal:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks...
Trade active: Playing close the gap in weeklies on SPY/IWM/QQQ
Comment: Shorted FB as well in Jul 242.5P
Trade active: Traded out of the red on dailies playuing Fade Gap Game; rolled dailies into July ITM puts. Shorting dailies on drops against the long puts, creating bear spreads.
Comment: She sells!
Trade closed manually: Took bank off the table it might sell more but its oversold IMO and there's a gap to fill; short the rallies!
Trade active: On EOD lift got back into bear spreads; much smaller pos. Expect some continuation selling Thurs; these are hedged.
Comment: In 10 Jul DIA 255P, SPY 305P, IWM 138.5P, QQQ 244P; hedged in $8 spreads on Friday dailies.
Six contracts per pos.
Trade active: Bear flag intraday near EOD; can gap either way IMO; watch last 5m closely: I hedged with a small 5 contract QQQ Bull spread, for insurance.
Comment: Adding 4 contracts each to the bear spreads; holding the calls in case!
Comment: All my long contracts are closing ITM; going for LOTD and a gap down in AM IMO
Comment: IN AH trade short covering pops the price. IMO we might get a cascade Thursday.
Trade active: Closed shorts going to bull spreads expect a bounce from oversold MFI
Trade active: Closed the bull spreads on reaction rally doubled my gains on the day; up 10% on puts and 10% on calls, pretty slick day trading IMO; it could sell again now, or bull Friday, who knows?! taking my chips off the crazy table.

Short the rallies IMO!
Comment: Entered a long-term GM bull spread in August $25 calls short the weeklies; sell weeklies every week until the $2 calls are paid for!
Trade active: Back in bull spreads on QQQ, SPY buying on a higher low intraday, in the Jul 2 305C short 310 Friday exp; 244C short 248s.
Trade closed manually: Made it going down, up and up. Closed all but holding GM. Done day trading for Thursday, gain of 28% on at-risk positions, not bad for one day IMO.

Account is up 25% over past two weeks. Wish I could expect to annualize that return, lol , it's 625% annual!

Fear drains out of markets, might have one more sell wave left in it but we're getting higher lows again.
Trade active: Intraday bull flag rising wedge; shorting FB, SPY
Comment: Surprise! Calls had been well served! FB bearish but SPY turned- will it last? Bought a bull spread, now straddled in SPY, holding both sides. GLTA!
Trade closed manually: This unlikely combination produced a nice opening gain, closed all out, watching. QQQ is little changed suggests to me bullishness may return soon... more MOMO lurking?
Comment: Resting on the lower TL at 3030. If it breaks here will cascade IMO... danger zone.
Trade active: I see inverted H&S intrday; resting on support at higher low; imo bear campaign may be easing off, see if it pops up off TL; took small pos in bull spreads on spy, qqq in 2 week contracts short expiring dailies, just 6 spreads each.

Looking at BTD on FB...
Trade closed: stop reached: Yeah small loss on this not turning here IMO holding nothin over weekend as Monday could be anything!
Trade closed manually: On EOD Friday I bought 20 bear spreads on QQQ and SPY. Today they made money, I take what the markets give me; short legs earned more than the long legs lost! AMazing... prudent to sit in cash at this juncture IMO.

Light volume trading tends to lift and Tuesday could bull in a countertrend wave. Got yard work and errands to run; not watching this grind all day!
Cheers, GLTA!
Trade active: Back in it shorting this rally in DIA / QQQ / SPY / IWM bear spreads, long July atm puts, short 30 Junes in $3 spreads, getting >1$ for the short legs, has broken under rising TL and bearish IMO.

Not a big pos, could def bull more on Tues, will collect the short leg premiums if it does.
Trade active: SPY and DIA contracts moved ITM. Added 5 each to QQQ, IWM positions. Now short $4k OTM dailies exp 30 Jun. Either collect $4k Tues, or close if these move ITM.
Trade active: Added 5 each to DIA, SPY spreads, now in 15 spreads each index. Making a lovely bear flag IMO...
Trade active: Rolled up short legs covering $1 contracts for 0.18c; added to long legs in bear spreads now in 20 spreads each index short the 01/02 Jul dailies.

Drawdown on the long puts nearly entirely offset by gains on the shorties!

It is a falling wedge; should backtest the wedge TL IMO. Tar ~2960 +/- 20 pips
Trade active: Closed overnight positions for slight gains and reopened higher strikes in 10 July bear spreads.
Trade active: Has broken upside from falling wedge; expect a backtest in a day or two to give an inverted H&S pattern; buy it there IMO; presently short, intraday QQQ has formed H&S, DJI gave a shooting star Doji (returned to opening price).
Comment: MOMO gone wild LOL, all the action is in FAANGMs
Trade closed: stop reached: This idea appears to be invalid.
Comment: Another Exhaustion Gap?!? There seems to be no end of them... LOL!

Comments

Love it, you're always chasing the drop, lol.

I told you today would be a whipsaw day.... I'm out for the day.
+1 Reply
DaddySawbucks hungry_hippo
@hungry_hippo, To catch the drop you must be exposed to risk. I made bank on the morning sell and entered a new smaller position on the lift. GLTA!
+1 Reply
hungry_hippo DaddySawbucks
@DaddySawbucks, should've kept those GM puts, lol.

Good luck, I'm staying out, maybe a small overnight play again. ES1 MFI is dropping, and it probably goes oversold tomorrow.
+1 Reply
ProfitHarvest hungry_hippo
@hungry_hippo, EOW could be brutal, decent chance it limps into next week though for a proper crash start.
Reply
DaddySawbucks ProfitHarvest
@ProfitHarvest, Shooting star Doji; see if it gives us a pinbar Thursday....
+1 Reply
hungry_hippo DaddySawbucks
@DaddySawbucks, daily candlesticks mean nothing on indices, look at how many bear traps it's set just within the last year. That's why I look at futures.

The ASians and Euros don't sit around looking at US index candlestick patterns, they trade off of futures indicators. Remember all futures move in the same direction.
+1 Reply
hungry_hippo ProfitHarvest
@ProfitHarvest, I doubt it, they got the pump algos running, so we probably see a bounce on Friday if it drops tomorrow.
+1 Reply
ProfitHarvest hungry_hippo
@hungry_hippo, Wheels fallin off their pump and dump scheme. Only question is if it will crash sooner than they planned or exactly when they planned, we may never know, has to be soon though.

What can't go up, must come down.
Reply
Hong Kongese pumped future right back into the green....

I wonder what kind of premarket news we get tomorrow, lol. The BS with vaccine and jobs numbers turned a 25 pt dip into a 10 pt gap up...
Reply
DaddySawbucks hungry_hippo
@hungry_hippo, Yeah was looking fine at 7am come back an hour later my gain became loss ffs... and QQQ back at ATH omg why? How...! lol
Reply
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