I just wanted to put out a note on the head and shoulders being widely spoken of in SPX. I think most people know how to trade a successful H&S so I won't talk much about that other than to say if you are long you want to be sure your stops are where the H&S would be confirmed.
Instead, let's talk about failed head and shoulders, which are far more common than successful ones. The H&S has perhaps a 30% success rate (And I think I am giving it a few percent being kind). It's the most commonly forecast pattern that fails to make a top. It's also the pattern that tends to lend itself to a strong bullish break the most when it fails. Trading a failed head and shoulders is easy. It's a long unless we get under the last big low as soon as the left shoulder breaks (With some tolerance for false breakouts, because there's usually a small false break before a successful head and shoulders). Certainly not a short when the head breaks.
A note to people who want to warn people about a market crash, if you want them to listen to you if you do not get it right this time it's important you tell them what makes you wrong now. Do not speak in absolutes. Nor over-forecast. If you do that and are 10 - 20% out on the real high - people simply will not listen to you at the high. Most people will think you're very stupid. I learned this warning of the BTC high in both of the crashes while strongly warning it was coming while over 60K. It never went a lot higher, but by the time it was the high - most people just wanted to make jokes.
If you want to warn people of a market crash, consider you may be right and early. If you do not, and you are early - you'll fail in warning them. Even if you're right later. As I failed in warning of crypto highs.
Instead, let's talk about failed head and shoulders, which are far more common than successful ones. The H&S has perhaps a 30% success rate (And I think I am giving it a few percent being kind). It's the most commonly forecast pattern that fails to make a top. It's also the pattern that tends to lend itself to a strong bullish break the most when it fails. Trading a failed head and shoulders is easy. It's a long unless we get under the last big low as soon as the left shoulder breaks (With some tolerance for false breakouts, because there's usually a small false break before a successful head and shoulders). Certainly not a short when the head breaks.
A note to people who want to warn people about a market crash, if you want them to listen to you if you do not get it right this time it's important you tell them what makes you wrong now. Do not speak in absolutes. Nor over-forecast. If you do that and are 10 - 20% out on the real high - people simply will not listen to you at the high. Most people will think you're very stupid. I learned this warning of the BTC high in both of the crashes while strongly warning it was coming while over 60K. It never went a lot higher, but by the time it was the high - most people just wanted to make jokes.
If you want to warn people of a market crash, consider you may be right and early. If you do not, and you are early - you'll fail in warning them. Even if you're right later. As I failed in warning of crypto highs.