If SPX follows the typical model of things that happened after a 161 break three thing should happen.
1 - We enter into what is clearly the worst part of the downtrend. In almost every case of this in history the move is supported by news.
2 - We drop to 3000 - 2800 sort of zone before any major first bounce.
3 - We then drop into somewhere close to the 2000 zone.
This is where we'd be taking our major bear targets and then re-assessing where we are in the market to plan our next moves.
Expect news if this is happening. You're not going to turn on the TV and see them saying, "SPX capitulated today after being the 161 fib of the topping swing". That's not how it works. The market crash has to be "Unpredictable" - and anyone who did "Predict" it has to be a super lucky perma-bear. Broken clock. You know the cliches.
1 - We enter into what is clearly the worst part of the downtrend. In almost every case of this in history the move is supported by news.
2 - We drop to 3000 - 2800 sort of zone before any major first bounce.
3 - We then drop into somewhere close to the 2000 zone.
This is where we'd be taking our major bear targets and then re-assessing where we are in the market to plan our next moves.
Expect news if this is happening. You're not going to turn on the TV and see them saying, "SPX capitulated today after being the 161 fib of the topping swing". That's not how it works. The market crash has to be "Unpredictable" - and anyone who did "Predict" it has to be a super lucky perma-bear. Broken clock. You know the cliches.