The most conventional stock market opinion in the United States right now
revolves around this optimistic scenario.
The Federal Reserve Bank in the US will continue to raise interest rates well into 2023,
perhaps pausing around the 4.50 % threshold, to see how the economy reacts at that point in the cycle.
Buyers of stock anticipate that that pause in interest rate rise next year
will allow the stock market, as measured by the S+P 500 to regain it's footing or base,
with interest rates gradually coming down later
in 2023-2024, a US Presidential Election year.
My own long term market view at this point is that the market
will continue to broadly decline in 2023-2024 certainly much further
than the professional money managers, or the public at large expects.
And that is the underlying risk that the market will have to face head on.
The world is changing so rapidly right now, socially, economically, and politically
that any kind of conventional way of thinking
should be tossed out the window.
The "base", or potential bottom in the stock market, in 2023-2024
as measured by the S+P 500, the largest market index in the world
appears to me will be ultimately down,
to the Pandemic Crisis Low of S+P 2191, of 2020
wringing out "all "the excesses",
that have been built into the US financial system, over the last two years.
THE_UNWIND
10/18/22
Woods Of Connecticut
revolves around this optimistic scenario.
The Federal Reserve Bank in the US will continue to raise interest rates well into 2023,
perhaps pausing around the 4.50 % threshold, to see how the economy reacts at that point in the cycle.
Buyers of stock anticipate that that pause in interest rate rise next year
will allow the stock market, as measured by the S+P 500 to regain it's footing or base,
with interest rates gradually coming down later
in 2023-2024, a US Presidential Election year.
My own long term market view at this point is that the market
will continue to broadly decline in 2023-2024 certainly much further
than the professional money managers, or the public at large expects.
And that is the underlying risk that the market will have to face head on.
The world is changing so rapidly right now, socially, economically, and politically
that any kind of conventional way of thinking
should be tossed out the window.
The "base", or potential bottom in the stock market, in 2023-2024
as measured by the S+P 500, the largest market index in the world
appears to me will be ultimately down,
to the Pandemic Crisis Low of S+P 2191, of 2020
wringing out "all "the excesses",
that have been built into the US financial system, over the last two years.
THE_UNWIND
10/18/22
Woods Of Connecticut