gbleier
Short

SP500 - SPX - To Move Lower, Recession Awaits Pt 2

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
As stated as an update on my previous post, we have moved toward the option of tracing highs to 3040. This is now looking like the most likely option, making one last touch before heading down at or before October 11th (projected). This is where several strong lines of support and resistance meet. This option looks likely as we could be setting up for another ascending triangle to reach that new high of 3040.

Another option is to over extend into the 3080 area where a bull trap is set and moving lower from there.

Either way, October is showing many similarities to the Great Recession stock market crash. Treasury 10y-3mo looks to be inverting back positive soon also.

Last option is that we have made a double top and will move lower from here.

Overall, I don't think it will move higher than 3100, the only way this is possible is if trade talks are fully dealt with. I think what will happen is October talks will come around, there will be no deal since both sides are stubborn (one more than the other) and we will move lower by December, possibly replicating what happened last December.

Remember, strongest RSI divergence on ALL graphs - this must end at some point.


Here is my final prediction, will wait for October 11-25th!

Oct 30
Comment:

So route 3 has been determined, and today we hit the upper resistance which still remains strong and has not been broken.

I still see the bull trap zone as 3050 - 3130 from fibonacci analysis.

Still uncertain why the market is higher, zero amazing China news, along with the Fed cutting rates when the markets are at highs, oil is fine, and the economy "being the best it has ever been" according to some people. So why the rate cut?? Use your heads! This is when you need to be cautious. Seems like a false breakout to me.

I will be bearish until 3200 is broken. If 3200 is broken bullishly and the RSI divergence pattern is broken, I will be bullish. My guess is that in the bull trap zone is where we will see RSI rejection occur along the red line.
good day! what road is going now on this chart?
+1 Reply
gbleier artizan777
@artizan777, I think whatever happens next is anyone’s guess. It looks like we are setting up for one last push to 3000-3020 maybe and then going down? Trade talks meant nothing to me. They are simply agreeing to buy more of what they were already buying years ago. Nothing substantial. I will still bet on a repeat of December, and if not that, full on recession by June 2020 when I calculate ICSA 50 day SMA to cross 200 day SMA.
+1 Reply
gbleier artizan777
@artizan777, also just because we agreed to not implement tariffs has the market going higher?? How?? If anything, the tariffs not being removed should’ve been a horrible sign that we are still on a pathway to reduced profits and global growth. Once this quarters numbers start coming out, it’ll be recognizable. Many businesses already entering recession. Just a matter of time
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artizan777 gbleier
@gbleier, ok, tnks
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it seems that its over with bottoms and we go now at new highs
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gbleier artizan777
@artizan777, Yes very possibly on route 3, then down. Once it breaks certain lines it'll go far down, prob once jobs reports starts to come in low after christmas season
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u was right!!!nice chart!!
+1 Reply
gbleier artizan777
@artizan777, Thank you! Since we broke 2940 I'm expecting us to at least hit 2825 area. We might go up from here and bounce from previous support at 2940 then back down, but this market has been SO unpredictable in a way. Many unexpected moves as I watch it. So could be route 3 or route 2, at this moment, who knows!!
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artizan777 gbleier
@gbleier, ok, take care
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