DaddySawbucks

Retail Rally to 10 June Then Summer of Pain

TVC:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Bars fit pretty neatly, eh? Just a notion. Wouldn't bet the farm on this countertrend move. Get high enough to stop out bears for loss then plunge.

Fibo at 4300 probably be the end of this bearmarket rally. Might get higher, might not. Prior rallies in Jan, Mar failed. This will too imo.

Gamblers' Game; Vicious beast.
Comment: We have not yet seen true panic capitulation. Soon imo.
Comment: Hmm doesn't look so bullish today... see if we get a fifth wave higher this week, will prolly be a top if it does imo.
Comment: TRyin a few calls, might go red>green imo
Comment: Closed, it's pretty choppy watch n wait.
Trade active: Flipped calls in power hour. Did not see the last minute EOD sell comin, thought it might bull but took no pos.

Fragile now... feels like a 4th wave imo, not shorting yet. Could still have another 100 pips to upside imo.

Tomorrow is another day!
Comment: Yeah its not getting a lot higher imo. Took some shorts, covered, re-entered. Got a hangin man doji, might get gap down Thurs, often will after this selloff >runup.

Holding ten SQQQ 48.5 Jun calls. (Buy calls on inverse ETF for bear bet!)
Comment: If we don't see higher by Friday this rally is done imo. Might still give a double top failure pattern. Might just tank off.
Trade active: Flipping puts across qqq 306 strike, choppy
Comment: Appears to be crowning at this price level could be setting up for a tankoff imo
Comment: Fliiped calls lol so choppy it can do anything today imo; any positive news on anything could light the fire
Comment: Bulling a bit, shorting this lift
Comment: Rolled shorts into longs to catch part of this move. It's pretty clear fifth wave, most of it in NQ. Retail bagholders buying the bag at end of rally.

Would not chase this would not buy this! Caveat Emptor!!
Comment: NB: Rallied to breakdown point; former support is now resistance. Might squeak a notch higher on short covering but this is not gonna bull imo.

Expect rejection from breakdown price to lower prices soon. DO NOT BUY IMO!
Comment: Stonks trade now at the breakdown price, former support is resistance now, b/c those who got in at 'support' now want out at breakeven to get their money back
Trade active: Told ya not to buy this POS. Engulfing bear candle fgs. Fooled around with a few small pos, quit while I'm green for day; it's just a vicious dog imo, bites you every time you enter anything.

For the bull case this COULD be a wave 2 intermediate pullback or a B wave in an emerging uptrend. It does have an inverted H&S forming on this sellback.

Anything can happen any day, hold NOTHING overnight!
Comment: Gonna waterfall soon imo. Take no longs. I bought one put EOD, SPY weekly 408p for $4.
Comment: Some asking how low I think it might go. We have yet to see capitulation, real fear and panic. Right now price acts like complacency (it went down some, now it can go back up, right?!) but real anxiety (OMG will it never come back?!) and panic (O FGS I LOST SO MUCH ALREADY JUST SELL IT ALL!) have yet to emerge:

Final tar full bear scenario: -45-55% SPX; NDX might go off -80%, did in 2008, panic always affects it the most. Won't go off overnight, has been grinding five months now, by rule of 2/3, the largest decline will come in the last third of bear move timeframe. Shaping up to be a 9 month bear, a massive break in Sep/Oct would be the biggest waterfall in history if the pattern confirms and repeats we could be looking at 2400 SPX in October. NQ has gone off 25% already and that is likely the first 1/3, next 2/3 price drop comes in the last 1/3 of time to event; a 75% drop is possible, with most of that still waiting for panic and capitulation. NQ was near 17k, could drop to 4k. If you consider that far-fetched, remember in the last panic 2008/9 it fell 90% over 400+ days. Most participants in this market have never seen a real bear. I have traded through 1987, 2K dot-com and the 2008 crash and I'm still here. This one will be amazing IMO...
Comment: Market cycle psychology; thrill, euphoria gave way to initial fear and now complacency (the bottom is in! it went back up!! yay!), anxiety, denial and panic coming soon:
https://fifthperson.com/psychology-marke...
Trade active: Fading this gap
Comment: And losses turned into profits! See if it fades more keep a runner
Comment: Closed the runners +500 bucks better than a poke in the eye
Comment: Friday gapped down and went down, stayed down. Monday gaps up, goes up, might just stay up.
Gap didn't fill in first 40m it might not fill until eod or might gap down Tues to fill it.
The see-saw nutty whipsaw is just about untradeable imo. There is no clear direction, patternless. Every entry is a gamble; good luck!
Trade active: Yeah tried few calls closed for a push, price just hangs, won't come down, might squeak higher, but time is not on your side.
Comment: On the daily chart price has formed a crown over past week. This is a bearish formation that usually breaks down. It is still possible to resolve to upside so risk is high for any pos. Watch, wait, all in cash.
Trade active: Panic buy puts closed em on the mini-sell. Gap might fill intraday imo.
Comment: Not shorting big just yet. Price consolidates at higher low and could move up again this week imo. Don't get trapped!
Trade active: Small shorts on QQQ at 308p, 307p, 306p all paid. Back in cash. Gap just about filled...
Comment: QQQ traded to .15c of closing price, might be filled here? Unless it goes Green > Red imo
Comment: Gap filled watch it now, can it bounce? No shorts
Comment: QQQ closed 306.20 low 306.17, considering longs atm
Comment: opened 4 307c 0dte
Comment: Closed the calls for a nickel better, watch wait
Comment: It's either consolidating for a move higher or going to dump. No clear direction no clear signals, indicators mixed to slight bullish, pure crapshoot atm imo
Comment: DJI closed gap now red, NQ a touch red, SPX pennies away, price at critical juncture; will it hold or tank? Stay tuned.
Comment: RUT is holding up pretty well could be the key to direction imo
Comment: Looks, feels like a bull flag. Could give a measured move higher, would end right around 4300 if it does, squarely on top of the overlay. Not sayin it WILL go there, just it COULD and i hate to lose on shorts if it does. Take trades with good R/R ratio, rather than guessing randomly, eh?!
Comment: Fade the gap
Comment: Closed gap trade
Comment: Might be forming a higher low? Gap ought to fill intraday but lately has been like this, gaps and stays down, fills next day. Up gaps been like that too, but it did fill late yesterday. So unpredictable atm.
Comment: Trying spy 410c
Comment: Closed itm back in cash
Comment: Not much rip in it today. Hoped n expected a quicker gap fill but sentiment swings like this. All bullish Thursday, bearish as HELL Fri, bullish/bearish/?Bullish again Weds? At some point it will just break down again and start another fierce bear campaign imo.

If you wonder "WTH he keep closing the longs on gapfill?" Is b/c these are countertrend plays, the trend is DOWN so if you buy calls you are PROBABLY WRONG but might scalp a few pips before it rolls over again... trade with care! Back in cash, lunchtime coming, the doldrums.
Comment: LOL and it filled while I tabbed out to type this... fgs!
Comment: Look at RTY, traded on May back to Jan 2020 peak, moving up from there. Could be reversing, could retest, keep an eye on RTY!
Comment: Not chasing this rip. Made a bit off the weakness coming off the top. Resting now, lunchtime errands. See if they sell the damned thing all the way back down, lol.
Comment: Shorted EOD for a scalper in SPY 416p. Holding nothing, no clear direction, but it has made a crown top, breakdown could occur next week imo.

FOMC decision Weds, always a joy to play. Pattern has been to sell at the 2pm news release then buy it up on J Powell's speeches.
Comment: The whipsawing has been terrific, it's volatile even when price is rising, VIX has come well off highs but remains elevated ~24 atm. Today SPY moved over an $8 range but there was no clean trade, whipped up and down several times intraday before the bear flag unfurled EOD. If you got lucky you could catch some of these moves but it takes steel nerve to sit and watch your position fluctuate wildly all day. Came out ahead, but it's not really bulling, it's frantic chop with capitulation by shorts covering eod. Would not chase this rally, is likely on its last leg, the crown is a bearish formation. Volume has been creeping down, on 5/31 SPY traded 95m shares, today only 54m. volume steadily declining over past week. When it breaks will be swift and sudden.
Trade active: Flipped calls on gapfill and rolled into few puts, closed it all. Directionless, stuck in the middle again.
Comment: Traded down to overnite lows on futurz. Might bounce again; pure gamble imo. No pos.
Trade active: Played calls > puts again for a buck. Chop n churn!
Trade active: Flipped puts maybe it sells more idk gonna try a few calls again
Comment: Closed it
Trade active: Been frantically selling and buying it. Caught the bounce from -50 pips on SPX. Not chasing it. IMO the rally is just about done.
Comment: Visited 4110 twice. Caught wee bounces but it is suddenly bearish. Pattern of alternating days suggests Thurs might bounce and sell again Friday.
Comment: Played eod bounce dont get caught chasing it imo, back in cash. Scalper trades only. Anything can happen Thursday but it ought to get a bounce tomorrow imo.
Comment: Scalping moves so fast some trades <30s
Comment: Retrace rally so weak idk but it should get some bounce tomorrow imo, bloody bearish eod but I am not buying puts here!
Trade active: See related post on ES1. Been busy flipping calls > puts > Calls. Back in cash. It's consolidating in range bound trade. It could finally start to move higher and if it breaks up from TL it will get Bulleesh imo. Too soon to say.

Charting a falling wedge which can lead to measured move higher, could carry to 4300. Don't be short if it goes!
Comment: LOL dropped 20 pips while im typing this fgs, sigh... so choppy! Amazing I pulled anything out of it today.
Comment: Cash is a position and I like it. Random chop just takes your money. Don't guess; be sure.
Trade closed: target reached: Done
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.