DaddySawbucks

Rejection coming? Another leg down?

Short
TVC:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Extreme risk for any position now. Should this rally fail and reject from upper TL the fall will be steep and swift- capitulation, a fifth wave down.

Capitulation is the intense fear and dismay of investors who realize too late that their stonks ain't gonna hunt.
Just when you think, "Finally! It's going back up!" Suddenly it isn't.

Then the hammer drops... the finishing move. Bear target on pitchfork . Trade with extreme caution, or do not trade; GLTA!
Comment: Here we go again!
Comment: An hour into session and gap shows no sign of fill... not betting on it. Sentiment swings have been alternating up/down/up days, but it is a bear market and an impulsive move down is likely imo.
Comment: Now a bear engulfing candle. What a trap from Hell.
Trade active: Flipped few calls up from -300 nq. Very chancy atm.
Comment: Looking for a better short entry. Going lower IMO but will it give a lift to back up the put truck?
Comment: 90m into session trading near lows.... no bounce in sight, twas a perilous trap, hope you all closed yesterday on this warning post.
Comment: Said this before I say it again, this market is no place for a retail investor. No one should be investing in this now.

It is purely a speculative arena for gamblers and hedge funds.

This gap is unlikely to fill this week imo. Could be mistaken, not betting either way. All in cash.
Comment: Gosh it's manic-depressive. Not chasing this puts are really spendy now. See if it lifts EOD.
Comment: Yeahhh well shoulda backed up the putmobile. Did a green day though. This is a crash imo.

A technical dead cat bounce is likely; short it imo.

We got two gaps above now from these selloffs. Might not fill for months or years...
Comment: If you didn't lose money today then pat yourself on the back. This was a real surpriser, way beyond expectations for a one-day move. Don't feel badly if you didn't take a short; NOT LOSING is #1 goal!!
Comment: See the futures traded high 3930 low 3860. Gap closed; expect run to low price imo.
Trade active: Flipped spy 388p #10 +8%
Comment: Flipped spy 290c back in cash
Comment: Err 390c, nq moving up from oversold
Comment: Do not expect a big bounce, not chasing this lift. It remains bearish and fri is triple witching.
Comment: Well that was just nuts. Loaded up calls at 3pm and made out okay. Trading on the fly in app. Direction Monday can be anything. Sometimes it gaps down after these EOD bounce days. Might pump N dump again.

IMO a significant rally is possible from these low prices, perhaps as high as 0.50 fib, a 10% rally, as we saw in 2008 before the major break. Play it day by day, be safe.

Totally unpredictable, almost untradeable; who could guess that it would tank off 3% after gapping up over 1% and then bounce back to the pin price? Nuts!
Trade active: Flipped puts to close the gap and tried a few calls which finally worked a bit, closed those and watching again. Do not trust this move feels like another countertrend, a 'B' imo, expect retest of Fri lows. So unpredictable can't keep anything more than a few minutes now.
Trade active: Flipping handful of puts on each lift, it works. back in cash; hold nothing.
Comment: Not gonna spam with evry day trade; FYI when qqq goes over 290 I buy 4-6 daily puts. Flip em when it moves ITM.
Comment: Steppin off for a while it's whipsawing in a narrow range; condolidation. Waiting for signal on direction. +500 on pinky trades, bank it and watch.
Comment: Sure looks like a bear flag, not anxious to FOMO this weak rally, probly just another trap imo.
Comment: Been observing. NB: Most of SPY gains are from DJI +600 pips. NQ remains weak, QQQ has rallied 12 bucks from Fri low but is not moving like the blue chips. Gets weaker EOD...

Not ready to close this idea just yet, could get a higher low around the .50 retrace from today's rally.

Holding nothing at night.
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