73% in the DJI according to @Dr_Roboto...
If market slips even a little, the whole thing could come toppling down!
Also many people are so bullish, they are planning to buy every dip, its going to be blood bath for the next 1 month.
I'm shooting for 2450 first downwave, 2100 second downwave. That's the AVERAGE of all models I've compiled haha.
Worst case is more like 2100 first downwave, 1600 second downwave!
2750 at best, maybe only 2600.
open interest (options) 12m is way off the table; the daily open calls volume is in the range of 160-170m for June while puts volume about 14m lower;
in Feb this was about 120-130m with about the same level of puts open;
forgive my dumb question - does the FED directly or indirectly buy stocks? If not then how does buying bonds (QE) support stocks? Banks / big companies get liquidity but they don't HAVE to buy stocks with that money, right? Those who say that stocks can't drop while the FED is involved - what's their mathematical support for that thesis?
Market doesn't give a shit about either.