ProfitHarvest

[SPX 30M] Raging Bull Plank! Market on Glass Supports...

Short
SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Very little market hours upward movement. Vast majority happened in overnight gapups.

73% in the DJI according to @Dr_Roboto...

If market slips even a little, the whole thing could come toppling down!

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Very true. Recently someone mentioned on twitter that there are 12m call options opened which is way above 7m call options opened in February. And he mentioned that no way that companies are going to pay them call exercise. So he is expecting a crash minimum towards 2750, and even more likely to 2500-2600 range. So next week is ggoing to bbe very interesting. These guys pumped the market over the night, and distributed all the stocks during the day time. Also they spx was 2950 around Apr 29, and 2960 in May 22. For the whole month, they were maintaining this range to sell stocks while making sure the price is not going lower.

Also many people are so bullish, they are planning to buy every dip, its going to be blood bath for the next 1 month.
+3 Reply
mikhail_bobrov sankarmail
@sankarmail, people are bullish because FED basically guaranteed stocks will not go lower
+2 Reply
ProfitHarvest mikhail_bobrov
@mikhail_bobrov, The Fed has no business making promises it can't keep.
Reply
ProfitHarvest sankarmail
@sankarmail, Blood bath for sure.

I'm shooting for 2450 first downwave, 2100 second downwave. That's the AVERAGE of all models I've compiled haha.

Worst case is more like 2100 first downwave, 1600 second downwave!
+1 Reply
sankarmail ProfitHarvest
@ProfitHarvest, Makes sense. I think EW analysis many did also predicted around 2450 range. I think during the second wave it can go lower than 2000. I wonder where it will bounce to after first crashing to 2450.
+2 Reply
ProfitHarvest sankarmail
@sankarmail, Yea EW is aligning at that point along with a few other prominent strategies, it is a major support.

2750 at best, maybe only 2600.
Reply
themnahf sankarmail
@sankarmail, if you are refering to
open interest (options) 12m is way off the table; the daily open calls volume is in the range of 160-170m for June while puts volume about 14m lower;
in Feb this was about 120-130m with about the same level of puts open;
Reply
Nice
+2 Reply
nice analysis - thanks!

forgive my dumb question - does the FED directly or indirectly buy stocks? If not then how does buying bonds (QE) support stocks? Banks / big companies get liquidity but they don't HAVE to buy stocks with that money, right? Those who say that stocks can't drop while the FED is involved - what's their mathematical support for that thesis?
+2 Reply
ProfitHarvest Just_curious
@Just_curious, Bulls don't have a case founded on data so they have to make stuff up like 'hope' and 'Fed'.

Market doesn't give a shit about either.
+1 Reply
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