A substantial crash is still the most likely outcome this month. There's just no data to support steadily increasing prices all month.
Bulls would have you believe we are in a post-data market where nothing matters and that the market is different this time.
That is just blind rationale for irrational exuberance.
Contrarian life ain't easy but someone's gotta do it.
Stay strong bears, take some L's if you have to but get ready to jump on again right before the crash.
Data says odds are still in our favor here. I'll let you know if that changes.
VIX back up and closed above long term support. Now same value as people who bought early May and late May when SPX was 2950 and 3015 respectively (now 3200 but VIX worth same? Some bull run we have here)
DXY bounced back down hard off top of trend channel.
SPX tracking to crack support line Wed or Thurs, gap ups aside of course.
Anyway sideways SPX and nice VIX uptrend and fantastic 30 day relative value is very bearish.
Bears seem to buying all-in on Bull Fed logic.
Bulls are WAY overestimating the power of the Fed to the point that Bears are also overestimating the Fed lol.
Oh boy, guess we'll learn more tomorrow.
DXY sticking to channel.
Start of SPX bottom channel breakout.
Lets see what the Fed's got. They need another gap up to save this zombie bull.
I was a little tempted but man, calling the turn is exhausting and frustrating haha.
Playing more safe now, waiting for more clear trend reversal signal before upping my short position any further, I got too greedy too early!
"Market won't tank until I go long"
That concept btw is part of my model. It is real.
We lost a lot of respected Bears last week due to exhaustion, which ironically is a very Bearish signal when all technicals and fundamentals are pointing to a sell off.
The Fed will play as well as bears
They also have to take the profits.