ProfitHarvest

[SPX x DXY x VIX x TVIX 4H] Hold and Prepare for the Worst...

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Many of my fav TView data bears closed up their short positions last week, just a few of us hardcore bears left on here.

A substantial crash is still the most likely outcome this month. There's just no data to support steadily increasing prices all month.

Bulls would have you believe we are in a post-data market where nothing matters and that the market is different this time.

That is just blind rationale for irrational exuberance.

Contrarian life ain't easy but someone's gotta do it.

Stay strong bears, take some L's if you have to but get ready to jump on again right before the crash.

Data says odds are still in our favor here. I'll let you know if that changes.
Comment: TVIX appears to be undervalued relative to the VIX right now even accounting for the 2x velocity.

VIX back up and closed above long term support. Now same value as people who bought early May and late May when SPX was 2950 and 3015 respectively (now 3200 but VIX worth same? Some bull run we have here)

DXY bounced back down hard off top of trend channel.

SPX tracking to crack support line Wed or Thurs, gap ups aside of course.

Anyway sideways SPX and nice VIX uptrend and fantastic 30 day relative value is very bearish.
Comment: BTW quick note from the comment section...

Bears seem to buying all-in on Bull Fed logic.

Bulls are WAY overestimating the power of the Fed to the point that Bears are also overestimating the Fed lol.

Oh boy, guess we'll learn more tomorrow.
Comment: TVIX still undervalued relative to VIX.

DXY sticking to channel.

Start of SPX bottom channel breakout.

Lets see what the Fed's got. They need another gap up to save this zombie bull.
Comment: Clear breaks on all! What an idea :)

Related Ideas

Comments

Yeah I got itchy trigger fingers and shorted again today FFS. When will I learn? Market won't tank until I go long...! The Last Bear
+5 Reply
ProfitHarvest DaddySawbucks
@DaddySawbucks, Lol of course you did... double or nothing! Bet the farm's 2nd mortgage! Lets run it round #2 :).

I was a little tempted but man, calling the turn is exhausting and frustrating haha.

Playing more safe now, waiting for more clear trend reversal signal before upping my short position any further, I got too greedy too early!

"Market won't tank until I go long"

That concept btw is part of my model. It is real.

We lost a lot of respected Bears last week due to exhaustion, which ironically is a very Bearish signal when all technicals and fundamentals are pointing to a sell off.
+6 Reply
farmerisland ProfitHarvest
@ProfitHarvest, great point. I let myself get too eager too early too, when in hindsight, it should've been obvious in front of us. We're active daily on TView; we could've seen how "too many" people were so bearish for awhile. Even if dumb money was FOMOing it up, we never really put in major highs until the Bullish Sentiment is so high
+1 Reply
Facts > Feelings. Data over Emotion. Being a contrarian in action a little too early can suck, but what's gonna really suck is for the guys flipping long at these levels.
+3 Reply
But ... the breadth thrust ...
+2 Reply
I'm a bear, but damn can't deny the fact that fed is pumping in cash, dollar is slipping and indexes are being repriced higher. Gonna need Powel to turn off the printing press for a crash to happen. I don't see him doing that as inflation is only being seen in stonks, Powell is combating deflation on a whole, has covid risk, and china tensions increasing. As much as I'd like to see this irrational market stop, i don't think it does.
+2 Reply
Dont forget a key factor: fed manipulation.
+2 Reply
Where's Mother Bear? So far the puppies have played ....
+2 Reply
I think I will probably have to get some long positions so that it can finally go down:-)) And talking about getting on tvix too early - I am member of the club:-( I expected this go down sooo much earlier!! But none of us knew how much was FED going to pump this thing... And honestly I am still not 100% sure that the crash is comming anytime soon. (regardless the fact that everything is pointing to it - even plain common sense is opossed to what is going on:-)). They might try to hold it until elections. Plus we have FEDs meeting today (again).
+2 Reply
@Diaana,
The Fed will play as well as bears
They also have to take the profits.
+1 Reply
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