DaddySawbucks

Cup & Handle Forming; Handle to complete pattern to ATH

Long
TVC:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Got the Cup; Handle will form Right Inverted Shoulder and close gap at 3307, provide springboard for impulsive move to ATH .

Current minor uptrend is not impulsive, it lacks motive structure and lower volume , weaker RSI on right wall of Cup is characteristic.

Markets will likely move rapidly higher following election, already pricing in (D) victory over incumbent; will rise regardless of outcome IMO.

IMO one more corrective down move is imminent, needs to form a higher low, complete the C&H and close the gap at 3307.

Turn back from 3328 R zone will initiate the pattern completion and end correction; when RSI goes oversold again, buy like Hell IMO.

As always, just an idea, not investing advice, speculate at your own risk; GLTA!
Comment: Shorting; trades at Fibo 0.616 exactly, 3444
Trade active: Played daily shorts 3x for +9k today; closed the gap marvelously! Holding longer-term shorts, closed out the dailies.
Comment: Enetering bear spreads in QQQ 282/279; SPY 343/340, Oct 23 v. 09
Trade active: Closed out the spreads on 2pm dip; EOD short-covering is likely to extend rally; surprising strength in small caps returns RUT to pre-covid valuations, wouldn't be wise to hold shorts AH IMO. See if it gaps up again Fri and play the fade.
Comment: If futurz hold, looks like the rally might be headed to 67% (Gann Rally) or even the 0.786.
Comment: Yep. Played Fade da Gap and closed all out for Fri PM. Might gap up again on Mon IMO.
Trade active: At the strong Resistance band just above 3500, back to 31 August price. Could double top or reject from this price near the 0.786 Fibo. Entering bear spreads in 30 Oct 350P, short Weds 10/14 345Ps, GLTA!

Comments

Love ya work bud.
I've been looking at the same trends and set-ups unfolding for some days.
Getting inverted H&S in several underlaying indicators on most major indexes > is very bullish.
Concur with your overall analysis - which means if I'm seeing it then probably lot's of others are, which then discounts/delays it coming about lol
(My conspiracy theory idea is that MMs also see these big trend/drivers, they then slow the market right down while they enter/exit, then let it rip)
My problem is that I get trigger happy/premature on the in and out, which seriously reduces my returns.
Anyway mate, keep ya pecker up.
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@Chillam, Right on, tyvm. I am concerned that VIX rises with price in face of declining RSI. Timeline and chart pattern are identical to 1987:


Really makes me wonder if we're about to get fooled big time.
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Great stuff again dude! Thank you!
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Potential pattern, let's see how it plays out. Thanks for sharing.
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This is noteworthy; VIX Rising with Rising Price while RSI drops:


In a bull motive move, VIX gets crushed. Not happening!
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You always impress!! Keep it up man. I seriously love your work as well as hungry hippo’s. Been hit lately but I guess I’m back in control hopefully:-)
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@lkdahleh, Tyvm, I learned from the Great Hippo and my Guru The UNwind, I have more winning than losing trades now, I take what the market gives and look for the signals it sends.

Most days you don't want to be in it; trade on indicators rather than instincts!

If this plays as expected, will be a great long for November IMO.
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lkdahleh DaddySawbucks
@DaddySawbucks, you’re absolutely right, I only trade on indicators and have one which has been doing great but my problem is usually not exiting at the right time or over sizing. Percentage wise, this indicator has given more than 70% success over the past 3 years for both directions, so if all trades are created equal and exited at the right time it pays off really wel. I have the same conviction as yours going into the elections but again will only follow the indicators. And yes, The UNwind is one of the greatest as well.
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