Thanks for viewing,
I am of the view that the major injection of liquidity will cause a short-term minor bounce and then downward again. There are major issues with consumers withholding spending, goods can't be made, can't be shipped, and people won't buy them. Liquidity can only minimise the second-order effects of that (delay or defend against bankruptcies). No demand, no supply, but record levels of liquidity.
If you think the worst is over and Munchkin can solve the issue by printing extreme amounts of currency and making a couple of TV appearances, then you should buy. If you believe Jim Cramer, you should buy. If you see how these steps are going to compare to a stream of the ever-worsening news of (I am very sorry to say) an unfolding human crisis then you might see further downside as more than likely.
A little tid-bit of the heartbreak presently;
- There is a video of an Italian newspaper that has 7 times the amount of space devoted to obituaries as compared to a few weeks ago,
- Lombardy (a very wealthy region in a developed nation) is not treating suspected COVID-19 patients over 65 anymore (or patients under 65 that have pre-existing conditions), no assessment, no treatment, and no one attends when they flat-line (no "code blue" crash carts like in the TV soaps),
- Italian Doctors have stated concerns about whether Italy can maintain the functions of a nation state (their concerns don't stop at the hospital door).
Ok, that got a bit dark - but its all true (and music to the ears of Preppers) - how do you think markets will react now that COVID-19 has established a firm foot-hold in the contiguous United States? The average doubling time of cases is 3-6 days so far. I'm scared of how it's going to go and I don't even live there. What is going to happen to Boeing stocks when Seattle and then Washington State calls in the National Guard to enforce quarantines? Look I am not wanting any of this to happen and I am certainly not taking any joy from any of it. Actually, I hope I am completely wrong about all of it.
I may be trading on a break below wave 3 (red line) if I can bring myself to profit from disaster.
Be more like Taiwan (which is a real country - it is not "Taipei and Environs") who ON THE SAME DAY as China announced cases of a new pneumonia to the WHO started assessing passengers inbound from Wuhan. Some countries still aren't doing that. Expect a little more from your elected officials - because their inaction, delays, and incompetence will cost everyday people.
Ok, thats more than enough from me.
I am of the view that the major injection of liquidity will cause a short-term minor bounce and then downward again. There are major issues with consumers withholding spending, goods can't be made, can't be shipped, and people won't buy them. Liquidity can only minimise the second-order effects of that (delay or defend against bankruptcies). No demand, no supply, but record levels of liquidity.
If you think the worst is over and Munchkin can solve the issue by printing extreme amounts of currency and making a couple of TV appearances, then you should buy. If you believe Jim Cramer, you should buy. If you see how these steps are going to compare to a stream of the ever-worsening news of (I am very sorry to say) an unfolding human crisis then you might see further downside as more than likely.
A little tid-bit of the heartbreak presently;
- There is a video of an Italian newspaper that has 7 times the amount of space devoted to obituaries as compared to a few weeks ago,
- Lombardy (a very wealthy region in a developed nation) is not treating suspected COVID-19 patients over 65 anymore (or patients under 65 that have pre-existing conditions), no assessment, no treatment, and no one attends when they flat-line (no "code blue" crash carts like in the TV soaps),
- Italian Doctors have stated concerns about whether Italy can maintain the functions of a nation state (their concerns don't stop at the hospital door).
Ok, that got a bit dark - but its all true (and music to the ears of Preppers) - how do you think markets will react now that COVID-19 has established a firm foot-hold in the contiguous United States? The average doubling time of cases is 3-6 days so far. I'm scared of how it's going to go and I don't even live there. What is going to happen to Boeing stocks when Seattle and then Washington State calls in the National Guard to enforce quarantines? Look I am not wanting any of this to happen and I am certainly not taking any joy from any of it. Actually, I hope I am completely wrong about all of it.
I may be trading on a break below wave 3 (red line) if I can bring myself to profit from disaster.
Be more like Taiwan (which is a real country - it is not "Taipei and Environs") who ON THE SAME DAY as China announced cases of a new pneumonia to the WHO started assessing passengers inbound from Wuhan. Some countries still aren't doing that. Expect a little more from your elected officials - because their inaction, delays, and incompetence will cost everyday people.
Ok, thats more than enough from me.
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Look for 2850 to act as strong resistance
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Maybe "small bounce" instead of "big bounce." Retailers closing US stores, 3 week 'stay home' guidance issued in US. New York requesting assistance from military engineering corps. I don't have any criticism to give to any of this. At least it has happened. Hopefully, it is in time to mitigate the health cost to everyday people. Pull together, stay safe, stay in (phone) contact. This will be a tough time for many. Loneliness will be an issue in a time of stress. I felt I had sufficient food, water, and basic medicines from my early shop in February. I just doubled my stockpiles. Do your own research in all things, don't just rely on authority figures - they are just people in suits talking.
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I wasn't long, just waiting to enter short again on a break below - now entered short at 2389 (ended up being a little early and have been watching my account closely - but now back in profit territory.
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Ah, would you look at that :)