We are nearing an important event tomorrow where we will come to know about Fed funds rates and FOMC guidance for upcoming months. These events are known for creating extreme volatility. We can easily swing up and down 100- 150 points on days like these and set in motion what's to come for the next few months.
No matter how big of a volatile move we will see tomorrow in the price action, it will be a small blip on a larger timeframe and that's what we are here to analyze.
On weekly Time frame I am looking at this inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.
Let's analyze this structure based on RSI indicator.
In the main chart we can see that, since the time inverse H & S began to form, the RSI has been trading in a Rising wedge formation which is a bearish pattern. Every time we touch the top edge of the wedge, we have been getting a rejection on RSI and big move down in SPX. In the begenning of the structure and RSI we got huge moves to the downside, but those moves have been getting smaller and smaller both in RSI and Price Action. This is called compression
which is followed by explosive moves once the pattern is broken.
Last week we again got a rejection from the top edge of the wedge and have begun to move down, I have placed the measurements on the chart about how much we have been dropping every time we touch top edge of the wedge on RSI and based on the patterns in price drop and how much time it took to drop to the lower edge. We can expect a drop of about 5+ % from the current top and reach there in the next 2 to 3 weeks.
Now once we have reached there RSI will have to decide whether to bounce back up or finally break the pattern. The break to the downside has descent chances of happening as per the Rising wedge pattern rules where it says the pattern break occurs in last 33% of the structure and it looks like we should be there by end of this month. If it does break below the inverse H & S pattern will fail.
The best way to protect you from entering wrong trades: is to never be too sure about any analysis and always consider all possibilities. Following are the possibilities I see with RSI which can make or break the structure:
We must monitor all the trendlines in RSI and see what PA is doing, it may not go all the way down and bounce back up from one of the trendlines in the middle.
The following are all scenarios I am watching for the movement of RSI.
I used a simple but powerful RSI indicator to gain insight on SPX Price action. If you are not familiar with this indicator, or if you have basic understanding but want to fully understand this indicator in detail: You can ago through the post in the links below:
I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned and if you like my content and would like to learn from my experience hit like and follow me for getting notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming tutorials on technical analysis and several technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to analyze any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it.
Keep learning and Happy trading All.
No matter how big of a volatile move we will see tomorrow in the price action, it will be a small blip on a larger timeframe and that's what we are here to analyze.
On weekly Time frame I am looking at this inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.
Let's analyze this structure based on RSI indicator.
In the main chart we can see that, since the time inverse H & S began to form, the RSI has been trading in a Rising wedge formation which is a bearish pattern. Every time we touch the top edge of the wedge, we have been getting a rejection on RSI and big move down in SPX. In the begenning of the structure and RSI we got huge moves to the downside, but those moves have been getting smaller and smaller both in RSI and Price Action. This is called compression
which is followed by explosive moves once the pattern is broken.
Last week we again got a rejection from the top edge of the wedge and have begun to move down, I have placed the measurements on the chart about how much we have been dropping every time we touch top edge of the wedge on RSI and based on the patterns in price drop and how much time it took to drop to the lower edge. We can expect a drop of about 5+ % from the current top and reach there in the next 2 to 3 weeks.
Now once we have reached there RSI will have to decide whether to bounce back up or finally break the pattern. The break to the downside has descent chances of happening as per the Rising wedge pattern rules where it says the pattern break occurs in last 33% of the structure and it looks like we should be there by end of this month. If it does break below the inverse H & S pattern will fail.
The best way to protect you from entering wrong trades: is to never be too sure about any analysis and always consider all possibilities. Following are the possibilities I see with RSI which can make or break the structure:
We must monitor all the trendlines in RSI and see what PA is doing, it may not go all the way down and bounce back up from one of the trendlines in the middle.
The following are all scenarios I am watching for the movement of RSI.
I used a simple but powerful RSI indicator to gain insight on SPX Price action. If you are not familiar with this indicator, or if you have basic understanding but want to fully understand this indicator in detail: You can ago through the post in the links below:
I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned and if you like my content and would like to learn from my experience hit like and follow me for getting notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming tutorials on technical analysis and several technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to analyze any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it.
Keep learning and Happy trading All.
