andrew.berg

SPY reversal off highs, scenarios and game plan

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
US indexes were up in early trading after New Home Sales data came out much better than expected. Consumer Confidence Index beats expectations as well. But later markets reversed, engulfed those gains and closed near lows. Lets see clues and points of adjustments (15 min timeframe analysis). After price reached resistance zone $195.50-.60 reversal candle appeared that usually leads to correction. Then buyers failed to hold 8/21 EMA - sentiment is changing. Finally, when sellers managed to erase all intraday gains and broke down 3-days support - strong signal that sellers are in control.

Many traders waited for such type of sell off that suddenly took place. Today, in media we will see many articles with fears across the board. They will be screaming that price found its top and now it is going to pullback 10% off the highs. But let be objective. Price just closed below 8 EMA . And before this boom scenario will come into play price should go through 21/50/100/200 EMAs. I think that we will see new highs this year, but question is what will happen first - pull back lets say to 50 EMA or new recor high. This red reversal candle is definitely something to take notice for short term active traders who open their positions intraday or for few days. We can expect 2-3 days of continuation down move and then will measure.

I mapped out levels of support and resistance where to make adjustments/take decisions. If sellers want to be in control they don't want to give back $195.27 8 EMA , then we have high at $196.50. And break below intraday low $194.48 could lead to $193.95 21 EMA . Then we have potential support - swing low from 12 of June at $193.11.
Intermidiate target could be $191.28 50 EMA .

I have three scenarios ni             my had to game plan today's action.
#1: Price will bounce off of yesterday's low. High probability strategy will be buying leaders that show relative strength: $MSFT, $INTC, $NFLX, $FB, $YELP, $JPM, $WFC, $TSLA, $DDD, $FSLR are some of them.
#2: otherwise, if SPY             will go through low then I will consider short stocks that show relative weakness: $BA, $GE, $AAPL             , $IBM, $C.
#3: market opens higher then will sell off.
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