If we held above $400 it would signal a larger move up. Likelihood of that happening is quite low in my opinion. With a big week of low expected earnings, possible negative news coming from Powell, and many companies looking lacklustre with weak guidance, I expect that we can see a strong rejection of the $400 level.
Closed one put already from $399 to $396 and will gradually re-open a few Puts for March/April expiration between $397-$399
Looking for a TP level around $370 or at the .618 fib line. Not because it would be a bottom, but a good level to take profit as we approach expiration and where we might see a possible bounce.
Stop loss would be $400 as I don't expect us to head back above this level. However, if we do, the risk/reward ratio is worth it.
Good luck everyone.
Closed one put already from $399 to $396 and will gradually re-open a few Puts for March/April expiration between $397-$399
Looking for a TP level around $370 or at the .618 fib line. Not because it would be a bottom, but a good level to take profit as we approach expiration and where we might see a possible bounce.
Stop loss would be $400 as I don't expect us to head back above this level. However, if we do, the risk/reward ratio is worth it.
Good luck everyone.
Trade active:
Entering here at $399. March Puts $370, Not a full position, low risk.
Comment:
Considering adding on at $401 if we hit it.
Comment:
Hedging with Bitcoin portfolio. While I am pretty bearish fundamentally on $SPY, it could turn the other direction if Crypto pumps.
Long term these puts are perfectly fine, but short term we could see some sideways movement or range at this level. With $405 area in play. Logically $386 is where we should be heading but short term no one can predict.
If $SPY breaks resistance similarly to how bitcoin did I may let go of these contracts. In a perfect world, the stock market falls as it should with the upcoming recession and smart money moves to bitcoin causing a disconnect between the two markets.
Long term these puts are perfectly fine, but short term we could see some sideways movement or range at this level. With $405 area in play. Logically $386 is where we should be heading but short term no one can predict.
If $SPY breaks resistance similarly to how bitcoin did I may let go of these contracts. In a perfect world, the stock market falls as it should with the upcoming recession and smart money moves to bitcoin causing a disconnect between the two markets.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Bad trade. Closing and moving capital to Ethereum which should pop back up to $1650.
Comment:
Closed $401.5
Comment:
Trade active:
Re opened a few contracts at $403. Quick decision making after the first hour. SPY has to break this trend and hold above $403 and then make new highs above $410 which I doubt will happen before Powell's rate hike. So could be choppy today and tomorrow and possibly see another dip under $400.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Closed out break even. Spy looking oddly strong. Will hold the BTC ETH hedge.
Comment:
Trade active:
Expecting to see a rise on the VIX next week so entering into a short today. $400 Contract for June. Using my day trades to scalping $10.80-$11.30 currently to create a lower stop loss of around $10. Looking for a sharp dip early next week to retest previous trend line.
Potential to switch teams next week to calls if we do $400-$410 levels and hold strong. I think we could see this move down and maybe some sideways action before heading up further.
Potential to switch teams next week to calls if we do $400-$410 levels and hold strong. I think we could see this move down and maybe some sideways action before heading up further.
Comment:
Good timing. In great profit. Contract at $12.23 with a hour left.
Trade closed manually:
Closing out of all puts here. Opened some good ones around $413 but took too much profit early. Starting to move more into my Bitcoin and ETH Positions as well as $SO
Closing out of all puts here. Opened some good ones around $413 but took too much profit early. Starting to move more into my Bitcoin and ETH Positions as well as $SO