3 reasons this view cannot be ignored:
1. There is enormous amount of money in the system. Where will all this money go to?
- Option 1: Bonds? Well they are all negative yielding so I dont see anyone wanting to be in them and boomers are selling theirs after a mega 30+ yr run
- Option 2: Real estate? Good luck! Tight inventory, shitty moratorium laws, increasingly tenant friendly states and cities, management headaches, poor tenants with 8-10% unemployment, poverty levels going up so ability to pay high rents is going down. Only local moms and pops run rentals, a few big players are in this space but no hedge fund manager will deal with all the BS that RE comes with.
- Option 3: Bitcoin? sure, watch RealVision series with plenty of reasons for it.
- Option 4: Stonks? Seems like a very legit option and one of the most viable options
- Option 5: Metals? Sure, why not. Market size is nowhere close to stonks so there is plenty of upside.
2. Stimulus got rejected - not good enough. So they are going to fight for more $? If Trump gets us more stimulus then we will have even more money in the system. Where would that money go to? If not robin hood accounts then into spending. Spending = earnings, Earnings = profits for Apple, Costco, Amazon, etc. so this is even more bullish for stocks.
3. I believe we are in a technological revolution stage where our technology is improving at a mega exponential rate which is much much higher than ever before. Our Information travels way fast than ever before so our recessions should be shorter and much faster than prior recessions.
If you look on the long term chart, we are either at a breakout and retest stage or a simple fake out. Your trades will tell you if you are right or wrong, not a post on Tradingview or some Twitter schmuck. All I am arguing is that be open minded and dont run yourself into the ground being stuck on one particular view. Adjust positions, close trades if needed and re-enter. Use stop losses. Do whatever you need to do to be safe. There is nothing wrong with changing opinions.
I am not changing my short term bearish view yet BUT long term I only believe that humanity will win no matter what obstacles we have ahead of us because ALL OF YOU are beautiful and awesome people and I am betting on our collective involvement in progress with a few bumps in the road.
So with that, although my trading account needs a Christmas Massacre to happen, I want to wish all of you Merry Christmas (Hannukah, Ramadan or whatever it is that you celebrate) and a very prosperous and Happy New Year!
1. There is enormous amount of money in the system. Where will all this money go to?
- Option 1: Bonds? Well they are all negative yielding so I dont see anyone wanting to be in them and boomers are selling theirs after a mega 30+ yr run
- Option 2: Real estate? Good luck! Tight inventory, shitty moratorium laws, increasingly tenant friendly states and cities, management headaches, poor tenants with 8-10% unemployment, poverty levels going up so ability to pay high rents is going down. Only local moms and pops run rentals, a few big players are in this space but no hedge fund manager will deal with all the BS that RE comes with.
- Option 3: Bitcoin? sure, watch RealVision series with plenty of reasons for it.
- Option 4: Stonks? Seems like a very legit option and one of the most viable options
- Option 5: Metals? Sure, why not. Market size is nowhere close to stonks so there is plenty of upside.
2. Stimulus got rejected - not good enough. So they are going to fight for more $? If Trump gets us more stimulus then we will have even more money in the system. Where would that money go to? If not robin hood accounts then into spending. Spending = earnings, Earnings = profits for Apple, Costco, Amazon, etc. so this is even more bullish for stocks.
3. I believe we are in a technological revolution stage where our technology is improving at a mega exponential rate which is much much higher than ever before. Our Information travels way fast than ever before so our recessions should be shorter and much faster than prior recessions.
If you look on the long term chart, we are either at a breakout and retest stage or a simple fake out. Your trades will tell you if you are right or wrong, not a post on Tradingview or some Twitter schmuck. All I am arguing is that be open minded and dont run yourself into the ground being stuck on one particular view. Adjust positions, close trades if needed and re-enter. Use stop losses. Do whatever you need to do to be safe. There is nothing wrong with changing opinions.
I am not changing my short term bearish view yet BUT long term I only believe that humanity will win no matter what obstacles we have ahead of us because ALL OF YOU are beautiful and awesome people and I am betting on our collective involvement in progress with a few bumps in the road.
So with that, although my trading account needs a Christmas Massacre to happen, I want to wish all of you Merry Christmas (Hannukah, Ramadan or whatever it is that you celebrate) and a very prosperous and Happy New Year!
