MM False Bearish Breakout (SPY)

Although I am titling this idea as "Long", this is more neutral than long, although it is geared towards Long.

As we can see, many stocks such as $FB are down nearly 50%. This includes $NFLX and many others. That being said, $SPY is only down about 17% , far less compared to many other major stocks (AMZN is > 40% down from its highs!).

One of two things are likely to happen.

1. $SPY possibly falls a little bit lower, and then rips up 6-12% points before it eventually makes a longer term dive, or

2. The more likely option: $SPY and other stocks find temporary bottoms soon (not necessarily today or tomorrow, although not impossible), and then starts a new trend which is either more continued consolidation, or the beginning or continuation of the old uptrend.

EITHER WAY, stocks are likely to find some sort of temporary "bottom", and then rip from there.

Again, consult the Fear and Greed Index: 20: Extremely Fearful.

Even if we are heading into a recession (as many around me and people in the news are pointing to), even in the 2008 housing crash, on the way down the overall market made 6% jumps, 10% jumps, some even up to 15% jumps. As technical analysts we must take advantage of these swings and use them to our advantage.

We Know that stocks such as $AMZN, $GOOG, $FB will likely do some sort of DCB, or retracement. When this occurs it will propel the overall market to rip up potentially bringing it into a new uptrend thus around now and the next few weeks could be a great buying opportunity for new investors... That is of course all relies on whether or not $SPY can hold above the trend lines I drew all the way back from August 2021. If price action cannot quickly shoot up above support, and continues to fall from there (potentially coming back up to go down again) then we are in for a not-so-fun ride.

Let me know what you all think in the comments below! This post was kind of rushed since I have been off of Trading View for two years getting more practical experience and knowledge of TA, and was itching to do another post since I forgot about this site. I plan on doing more posts here in the near future to get more feedback.

I am always learning, so please feel free to reach out to me and let me know personally what you think of my TA, or just write it in the comments!

Good luck everyone!



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