AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P500 ETF TRUST S&P 500 ETF USD DIS
SPY remains a STRONG SELL!

This idea is an update to the original idea called SPY-SHORT-BUY PUTS dated July, 2018. The first target of $240 has been successfully hit. The second target of the analysis is $210.

Analysis Method: Wave Theory & Fibonacci

The main potential downside catalysts that have been discussed in the previous analysis are the following:

1. The Fed (Inverting Yields/QE)
2. Brexit (Hard/Soft)
3. Europe (Survive?)
4. Mueller (Constitutional Crisis?)
5. Geo-politics (Supply-chain,Resources)

The stage is set for a major inflection point in human history. We are at the precipitous of the fiat monetary system being severely stressed. And, yes, it might even break. Global QE is unwinding trillions of dollars which will be the primary cause of the coming collapse. Liquidity will freeze.

One of the known negative consequences is that quantitative easing devalues the domestic currency.

What type of Monetary System does the world use?

Fiat money is a currency without intrinsic value that has been established as money, often by government regulation. Fiat money does not have use value, and has value only because a government maintains its value, or because parties engaging in exchange agree on its value.(wiki)

What happens if Europe fails and citizens lose faith in the Euro?

Also, The world is about to take a leap forward in a major way which will be brought to fruition through technology. Life-changing technology such as 5G and Blockchain are the prime examples. These technologies will be so disruptive they will upend most sectors of the economy.

The top technology stocks have generated most of the wealth in the last 10 years, but technology has become largely concentrated which limits innovation.

The FAANG stocks represent more than 50% of the S&P tech sector.’

The core nature of technology is innovation and change. It comes with no surprise that the technology landscape has vastly shifted over the past 10 years. Only 4 of the top 10 Tech companies in 2008 by market cap ( Apple , Microsoft , Cisco Systems, and Intel ) are in the current top 10 technology firms in 2018. We expect the cycle of disruption to speed up further, making the FAANG stocks unreliable from a long-term perspective. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/katinastefa...)

Hold on...

The World Is Changing!

Review:


Cycle Wave 3/Primary Wave 5 is where we currently are in the wave count. Primary Wave 4 formed an irregular correction called a horizontal triangle which had sub-wave sequences of 5-3-5. This has formed a Higher Wave Bearish Leading Diagonal . Irregular Corrections found in the Wave 4 position imply that the coming 5th wave is likely to be extended.

Please read my previous analysis: SPY-CRASH IMMINENT-UPDATE
Link:

Primary Wave 5 has begun (unless a complex sequence occurs). We currently have a completed micro-wave 1 & 2 of Primary wave 5. The 3rd Wave in the Micro-wave is expected to begin now. Down we go...



Will update.

-AB






Comment: Fib Channel & Fib Time Zone

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Trade active
Comment: 15 FEB 19 240 - $.30

1. Buy @ .30
2. Set Sell order @ $.70 (2/3 or Whole Position)
Comment: 240 PUT
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Comment: As expected Micro-wave 3 of Primary Wave 5 has begun...

Micro-wave 3 target: $255
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Comment: Waiting for minuscule sub-wave 5 to break...
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Comment: Wave 3 retraced to its 'normal' level of .382.
Comment: Fib Spiral shows relationship of Wave 1 to Wave 3 which can be used for price targets and time-frames.
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Comment: 15 FEB 19 240 PUT .35 (Current Price)

Plan exit tomorrow.
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Comment: Option check: 15 FEB 19 = .36 (Current Price)
Comment: 240 PUT
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Comment: Still waiting for Minuscule Sub-Wave 5 to break down....
Comment: Looks to be starting now...
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Comment: Looks like we will drift down until Apple's earnings...

Whatever Apple's earnings turn out to be, Wave Principles tell us that they will be PERCEIVED negatively.
Comment: Minscule Wave 5 broke it’s .618 extension trigger level...
Comment: Excuse the above comment. That comment was related to the NASDAQ’s current wave count.
Comment: NASDAQ 15 MIN Chart - Wave 5
Comment: SP500 15 MIN shows a leading diagonal...
Comment: A leading diagonal ready to break...
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Comment: Option check: $0.35
Comment: If anyone is worried about Apple, don’t. Apple already broke key technical levels.
Comment: View my Apple analysis...
Comment: Watch futures carefully...
Comment: Don’t trust this pop...
Comment: U-Turn inbound...
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Comment: Note we are at a spiral intersection...
Comment: Yellow and Red Spirals...
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Comment: Complex Correction - ZigZag + Flat
Comment: Option Check: .28
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Comment: Reversal in 5, 4, 3,...
Comment: Game over...

Brutal days ahead...
Comment: Trade Talks With China Open in Washington, as Obstacles Abound
The window for negotiations ahead of a March 2 deadline is narrowing.

A person familiar with the negotiations said that there were signs of progress on the first day of talks but that it did not appear that major breakthroughs were imminent on many of the big concessions that the United States was seeking.

The talks come just days after the Justice Department unveiled sweeping charges against Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications giant, and its chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou.

Huawei and Ms. Meng are accused of stealing trade secrets, obstructing a criminal investigation and evading United States sanctions on Iran.

One of the biggest questions hanging over the trade talks is whether the United States can truly enforce any deal agreed to by Beijing.

China skeptics in the Trump administration fear that the Chinese will say anything to delay the increase in tariff rates on March 2 and to get Mr. Trump to roll back the tariffs that are already in place. At that point they expect China to wait out the rest of Mr. Trump’s term and hope for a more dovish successor.

“We have seen some crosscurrents and conflicting signals about the outlook,” Mr. Powell said. “Growth has slowed in some major foreign economies

He added, “We’ve seen that in China and in Western Europe.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes...
Comment: Is Hauwei COMPANY A?
Comment: White House preps emergency wall plan while Congress negotiates

Congress has until Feb. 15 to discuss a border security deal, but the White House is already finalizing its plan B — declaring a national emergency.

The White House is finalizing the details of a potential national emergency declaration to secure President Donald Trump's border wall, even as lawmakers are trying to broker an immigration deal that could avert another shutdown in just over two weeks

Trump met with his budget chief, acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, Jared Kushner and other top officials including White House lawyers on Tuesday to walk through the logistics of such a move. And White House aides have been quietly meeting with outside conservative political groups to build support for the president to take such an action. Those talking points, which emphasize Trump’s legal authority, have begun to show up in such conservative media outlets as Breitbart News.
The behind-the-scenes maneuvers indicate that the Trump administration wants to be poised to quickly declare a national emergency, should Trump choose to do so, by the time Congress hits its Feb. 15 deadline to strike a deal before government funding runs out again. And it signals that officials may not have much faith in congressional Republicans to secure the money in the coming weeks that Trump seeks to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Trump himself has said the odds of a congressional deal are “less than 50-50“.
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Comment: This is when 'hope' leaves the market...
Comment: Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three. Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, fourth waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend.
Comment: Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish.

Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed.
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Comment: Wave 4 retraced to the unusual level of .786 of Wave 3...
Comment: In public, Donald Trump is still talking (and tweeting) about an immigration compromise with Democrats to avert another government shutdown. Behind the scenes, however, the White House is reportedly finalizing plans for the president to declare a national emergency to build his border wall—suggesting either that Trump lacks confidence in Congress to cut a deal, or that he is operating in extremely bad faith.
Most likely, it’s a bit of both. On Tuesday, Trump summoned Acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney, senior adviser Jared Kushner, and other administration officials to discuss the logistics of the emergency declaration, according to Politico. The administration has suggested it would prefer not to circumvent Congress, especially since doing so would almost certainly trigger a Constitutional challenge. But Trump’s demands for a wall effectively guarantee that lawmakers will fail to reach an agreement that can satisfy him before the government closes again on February 15.
Comment: In theory, Democrats have more leverage than ever after Trump caved to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and temporarily reopened the government last week. While Democrats have said they are willing to compromise, Pelosi has also been insistent that a physical border wall is out of the question. On Wednesday, Democrats presented a border-security proposal with their opening bid for wall spending: zero
Comment: On Thursday, Trump warned again that he won’t hesitate to pull the trigger. “The Wall is getting done one way or the other!” he tweeted.
Comment: Price-Action is chasing the horizontal triangle it fell off of...
Comment: Reminder: $282 level must be broke and held to reignite the bull market
Comment: Things to watch:

1. Currency
2. Digital Currency
3. Oil
4. US National Emergency Declaration
5. Mueller
6. Brexit
7. China Trade
8. Geo-politics
Comment: Trump, in Interview, Calls Wall Talks ‘Waste of Time’ and Dismisses Investigations

WASHINGTON — A defiant President Trump declared on Thursday that he has all but given up on negotiations with Congress over his border wall and will proceed without lawmakers even as he dismissed any suggestions of wrongdoing in the investigations that have ensnared his associates.

In an interview in the Oval Office, Mr. Trump called the talks “a waste of time” and indicated he will most likely take action on his own when they officially end in two weeks. At the same time, he expressed optimism about reaching a trade deal with China and denied being at odds with his intelligence chiefs.
“I think Nancy Pelosi is hurting our country very badly by doing what’s she doing and, ultimately, I think I’ve set the table very nicely,” Mr. Trump said. While he would not directly say that he plans to declare a national emergency to build the wall, he added: “I’ve set the table. I’ve set the stage for doing what I’m going to do.”
Addressing a wide range of subjects, Mr. Trump brushed off the investigations that have consumed so much of his presidency, saying that his lawyers have been reassured by the outgoing deputy attorney general, Rod J. Rosenstein, that the president himself was not a target. Mr. Trump said he never spoke with Roger J. Stone Jr., his longtime associate who was indicted last week, about WikiLeaks and the stolen Democratic emails it posted during the 2016 election, nor did he direct anyone to do so.
Comment: Mr. Trump has been considering an emergency declaration to spend money on a wall even without congressional approval, an action that would most likely draw a court challenge, and he said Ms. Pelosi would not be able to stop him. “I’ll continue to build the wall, and we’ll get the wall finished,” he said. “Now whether or not I declare a national emergency — that you’ll see.”
Comment: Changing Wave Count...