doo de doo de doo de doo de doo...
Shark pattern resolved perfectly and reversed into the 5-0 as expected. Watching it last night I sorta expected another shark pattern to develop as it failed in the 50-61.8 retrace zone at close and sho'nuff that's exactly what we got.
The lighter green "baby" shark pattern formed today and it bounced out of the .886 PRZ and is hovering just above it at close.
2 scenarios here:
1) We fall through the PRZ in which case we're gonna see some heavy volume selling. I don't think this is likely, I don't think the bulls are gonna give it up this easily... especially w/ FANGs taking turns ignoring market trends this week.
2) We bounce out of the PRZ and play the same game we did with daddy shark from Monday afternoon thru Tuesday. A 50% retrace of baby shark's CD, and another possible 5-0 reversal. Notice how we've got this TL from the recent lower highs that converges w/ the lower LONG channel TL we just broke out of. Also notice how the 50%-61.8% retrace zone is EXACTLY where these TLs converge. Great area here to initiate short positions because confirmation/stop is so obvious. Higher than 61.8% retrace (278.70) and bulls are back in control, otherwise another 5-0 rejection here means the downtrend continues and likely accelerates as now we will have 2 weeks worth of bagholders that are getting nervous.
If I'm feeling frisky will grab some long scalps at the open, I'm 88.6% sure we don't just collapse at the open and will go up to retest the aforementioned retrace area.
Shark pattern resolved perfectly and reversed into the 5-0 as expected. Watching it last night I sorta expected another shark pattern to develop as it failed in the 50-61.8 retrace zone at close and sho'nuff that's exactly what we got.
The lighter green "baby" shark pattern formed today and it bounced out of the .886 PRZ and is hovering just above it at close.
2 scenarios here:
1) We fall through the PRZ in which case we're gonna see some heavy volume selling. I don't think this is likely, I don't think the bulls are gonna give it up this easily... especially w/ FANGs taking turns ignoring market trends this week.
2) We bounce out of the PRZ and play the same game we did with daddy shark from Monday afternoon thru Tuesday. A 50% retrace of baby shark's CD, and another possible 5-0 reversal. Notice how we've got this TL from the recent lower highs that converges w/ the lower LONG channel TL we just broke out of. Also notice how the 50%-61.8% retrace zone is EXACTLY where these TLs converge. Great area here to initiate short positions because confirmation/stop is so obvious. Higher than 61.8% retrace (278.70) and bulls are back in control, otherwise another 5-0 rejection here means the downtrend continues and likely accelerates as now we will have 2 weeks worth of bagholders that are getting nervous.
If I'm feeling frisky will grab some long scalps at the open, I'm 88.6% sure we don't just collapse at the open and will go up to retest the aforementioned retrace area.
Comment:
BTW again perfect fibs on these SPY harmonic patterns... the 1.13, 2.0, .886 ratios on the baby shark are pretty much what you'd find in a textbook drawing of a shark pattern.
Comment:
One more scenario to consider, and a very plausible one... We fall through the .886 PRZ and down to 1.13 support which is also a valid shark PRZ (that's where we bounced on Monday on the daddy shark pattern).
This area also happens to line up with the neckline of a possible H&S and prior heavy support at 276.35 so buyers are likely to step in here. However, since we've already bounced and consolidated above the .886 PRZ we likely bounce there.
This area also happens to line up with the neckline of a possible H&S and prior heavy support at 276.35 so buyers are likely to step in here. However, since we've already bounced and consolidated above the .886 PRZ we likely bounce there.
