bullish bat watch

Hourly RSI is hovering right above oversold so I think we take a breather from the purge on Friday. Drew a bullish bat here which if we keep bouncing here could be a .382 retrace back to the top of the channel. Were it to materialize my guess it's some kind of inv H&S formation that concludes the pattern Tuesday at the top TL. This is an ideal bull scenario, I'm not sure the reality will be that rosy. Plus whatever temporary uptrend may just wind up being the handle of an inv C&H pattern or the BC leg of an AB=CD move downwards.

The purple line is the 21 day EMA, which is now angled down implying the start of a downtrend. Bulls will likely fight like hell to get back above this level, they tried and failed today. If they can't get above it on Friday (especially if we sell off at the close on Friday) it wouldn't surprise me to have Monday be a gap down and waterfall multi % kinda day...

I'm still skeptical that this is the precursor of some kind of black swan selloff event like last Feb. Though I suspect there won't be too many "obviously" good opportunities to enter into short positions, just like there weren't many "obviously" great dips to buy on the way up. Expect the selloffs to be unexpected, illogical, and unwarranted... just like on the way up.

If you're bearish like me, you're looking for bigger drops leading to a downward expanding megaphone . A disciplined downward channel move probably means this will rally back up for a double top try at 281.30 in the near future. My tentative target as of right now is 267, though I'll let RSI tell me when its time to close out my shorts...