It should be well understood that trading is based off rules of probability. Currently probability dictates favor towards the bears.
For those that trade strictly off Bollinger Bands - we see the candle made it through the basis Bollinger band. This broke through that support rather easily. Probability is very high that this will hit 270 and slightly rally as it will then be 1st dev away from the mean. This coincides with the next Fib retracement layer - which you can observe in the background.
RSI is providing a very bearish signal which can be observed clearly here:
MACD & STOCH also bearish - this is significant because the MACD tends to be more reactionary. This indicator favors the more conservative trader and may prompt more bears that were wisely looking for confirmation to jump aboard.
I however acquired a small position of puts near $280 as I now plan to increase my short position as confirmation continues. I am ever more confident this will retrace - this is because of volume increasing as this selloff continues.
(For those interested: $277 puts exp Sept.)
For those that still are not seeing the clear pattern before us, lets go Kagi:
Finally we see the weekly with a very bearish engulfing candle. Stormy clouds ahead:
Please share your thoughts on where the SPY will go!!
For those that trade strictly off Bollinger Bands - we see the candle made it through the basis Bollinger band. This broke through that support rather easily. Probability is very high that this will hit 270 and slightly rally as it will then be 1st dev away from the mean. This coincides with the next Fib retracement layer - which you can observe in the background.
RSI is providing a very bearish signal which can be observed clearly here:
MACD & STOCH also bearish - this is significant because the MACD tends to be more reactionary. This indicator favors the more conservative trader and may prompt more bears that were wisely looking for confirmation to jump aboard.
I however acquired a small position of puts near $280 as I now plan to increase my short position as confirmation continues. I am ever more confident this will retrace - this is because of volume increasing as this selloff continues.
(For those interested: $277 puts exp Sept.)
For those that still are not seeing the clear pattern before us, lets go Kagi:
Finally we see the weekly with a very bearish engulfing candle. Stormy clouds ahead:
Please share your thoughts on where the SPY will go!!
Trade active:
Trade still active. Currently up 44% in two days. (Best return in two days for me so far aside from IPO/M&A) Added to put position at market close. Added at a 270 strike.
Trade active:
FYI: Calls in the partial straddle are now closed.
Trade active:
Trade closed manually:
Long now. Related idea below.
