benjihyam

$SPY range $479-$529, the path to the top (and bear market)

benjihyam Updated   
BATS:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
SPY looks to be showing signs of weakness here. Thinking that we could see the first large decline of the year into one of the support levels below $479-$495. Breaking the trend line would be the trigger.

If that happens and we do get a low, then I think we'll have one final rally to the upper resistance levels between $525-$530.

Another possibility, is we just continue upwards to the top resistance levels and then decline after. Idea of a range is you want to buy the lows (supports on chart) and sell the highs (resistances chart).

Regardless of the path we take, we're nearing a top in the market and after we hit those top levels, I expect a large decline lower (one that takes us past the prior 2022 lows).

Ultimately looking for SPY to reach the $280-300 level by the end of 2024. But let's save that analysis after we see what happens in this range.



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Thinking the second possibility is playing out. $529-530 trigger short.
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Changing my mind. Market showing weakness. Would make sense to get the pullback here and then one final pump to $529-530 for the top.
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Let's see if we get that down day tomorrow. Would make sense to get in the $502-508 region before a bounce.
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Okay, I'm bullish here. I think there's a possibility price can go all the way up to $550ish region over the next 2-3 weeks. Let's see.
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The move higher was sold into and now we're at the first support level on the chart. Going to start looking for longs again like in the original idea. Think we see the final move higher into $530 region to mark the top.
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Now I think we see one more downside leg to the bottom support before we get that move up into $530.
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Bought some OTM puts for 5/17 anticipating that move down to the lower support. Let's see.
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Welp haven't gotten that reversal yet. I'll add more puts at the upper resistance (almost there) with a longer expiration tomorrow. Likely out to September.
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Bought 300 contracts of $491P for 5/31
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Also bought 100contracts of $270P for 9/20
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Still haven't gotten a reversal but we're at the top. Think tomorrow is likely the turning point. A few more points higher before a massive reversal back down to the lower support. Think most people will be caught off guard (likely to start Wednesday-Friday).

Adding more puts tomorrow.
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Added more puts today, I bought some 5/24 $525P and took profit when they went to 100% gain before close, so riding some free until Friday.
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As of now, the move today increased the chances of the move down taking place. If it does happen, I expect the bottom to be on 5/29. I'll likely close out my put positions on that date.
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I'll likely add a new position in the morning: 500P for 5/31. Will look at what happens with price action w/ NVDA earnings pop premarket and at open.
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Took that position at open. Up 25% already
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I'm out of all my put positions. Reasoning, I think we chop until Wednesday and then go down again on Thursday.

Will reopen puts next week on Wednesday.

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