STRONG SHORT SPY: THE LAST BULL TRAP - A Look Back to 2008
Short-term:
18 Jan 2019, $240 Puts. If ~$282 is maintained for two trading days, dump positions.
Elliot Wave analysis used, not included due to restrictions for free users.
18 Jan 2019, $240 Puts. If ~$282 is maintained for two trading days, dump positions.
Elliot Wave analysis used, not included due to restrictions for free users.
Trade active:
Unless a major positive announcement is made tomorrow (a solid, signed, and confirmed deal with Xi), the market will begin its stomach-churning plummet. Futures, as of writing, reflects this prediction. There are no more floodgates left to prevent this correction.
Comment:
Even riding on relatively optimal G20 news, $280 could not be held. Bouncing off this strong resistance point, we should begin our first slide down.
I will be repositioning my puts to 28 Dec 2018 $240 by EOD if we look to close sub-$275.
Even riding on relatively optimal G20 news, $280 could not be held. Bouncing off this strong resistance point, we should begin our first slide down.
I will be repositioning my puts to 28 Dec 2018 $240 by EOD if we look to close sub-$275.
Comment:
Point of Failure - $272-274
Wave 1: -11.01%
Timeline: ~25 days
Target: $240
Take Profits at $242.50 - 245
The Market's Big Day: 12/6/18
Wave 1: -11.01%
Timeline: ~25 days
Target: $240
Take Profits at $242.50 - 245
The Market's Big Day: 12/6/18
Comment:
One thing of note - my timing may possibly be a tad off. Markets may continue to rise until next week possibly. The new "day" would be 12/11/18. Regardless, either position would be viable and losses limited. Stop-loss at anything holding above $286.
Comment:
NIKKEI down -2.25% at the time of writing.
Trade active:
Repositioned to 28 Dec 2018 $240 and closer aggressive plays. Nabbed some 15 baggers and closed Jan positioned for 260%. The fall only begins today.
Comment:
Feel free to ask any questions, as we prepare for tomorrow's abrupt holiday. I will try to answer them to the best of my abilities. I believe tomorrow's holiday is too conveniently placed for chance alone, in my humble opinion.
I am still maintaining the prediction that Thursday will confirm a very hazy outlook.
I wish for all of those holding calls or stocks to possibly stay in cash, if not yet convinced. Regardless of if this is the beginning of a new recession or just a minor correction, it won't be pretty for a while.
We still have a interest rate hike on the way that is almost guaranteed. Tomorrow's speech from Powell has not been rescheduled as of yet, but it is also another thing to look out for. Even if he's dovish, it will not be enough to pull us out of this hell.
Trump may look to rush a trade deal with China once the market begins a downturn, but I strongly doubt so.
Multiple branches of the government are still set for a shutdown on this Friday.
International players are pulling out of the U.S. market in troves.
Pentagon audit continues to develop for the worse.
France is literally on fire.
What's next?
I am still maintaining the prediction that Thursday will confirm a very hazy outlook.
I wish for all of those holding calls or stocks to possibly stay in cash, if not yet convinced. Regardless of if this is the beginning of a new recession or just a minor correction, it won't be pretty for a while.
We still have a interest rate hike on the way that is almost guaranteed. Tomorrow's speech from Powell has not been rescheduled as of yet, but it is also another thing to look out for. Even if he's dovish, it will not be enough to pull us out of this hell.
Trump may look to rush a trade deal with China once the market begins a downturn, but I strongly doubt so.
Multiple branches of the government are still set for a shutdown on this Friday.
International players are pulling out of the U.S. market in troves.
Pentagon audit continues to develop for the worse.
France is literally on fire.
What's next?
Trade active:
Tomorrow will open with a modest bounce, but will likely close down. The last chance. Greater fools can only last so long, but this bearish sentiment will linger onward.
If this carries, Friday is the "hell day" that many have begun calling. Trump will attempt to prop up the markets today and tomorrow, but once the veil has lifted, its a straight line down.
I have revised my earlier prediction of 12/6/2018 being the big day as two critical events have occurred - 1. Markets closed today for the death of GHWB and 2. A larger sell-off than first estimated. Whenever such a large sell-off occurs, there much be some bounce - one last run by the bulls - before it all comes tumbling down.
If this carries, Friday is the "hell day" that many have begun calling. Trump will attempt to prop up the markets today and tomorrow, but once the veil has lifted, its a straight line down.
I have revised my earlier prediction of 12/6/2018 being the big day as two critical events have occurred - 1. Markets closed today for the death of GHWB and 2. A larger sell-off than first estimated. Whenever such a large sell-off occurs, there much be some bounce - one last run by the bulls - before it all comes tumbling down.
Comment:
And like magic, futures fall again...
Nikkei down -1.79% at time of writing, looking to fall further.
Looks like that bounce won't even be present.
Nikkei down -1.79% at time of writing, looking to fall further.
Looks like that bounce won't even be present.
Comment:
We are falling on HEAVY volume.
Butterfly pattern + volume span shows algorithms are now jumping ship.
Get ready boys, looks like tomorrow is really hell after all.
Butterfly pattern + volume span shows algorithms are now jumping ship.
Get ready boys, looks like tomorrow is really hell after all.
Comment:
We've officially crossed into bearish territory, as shown by the SMA 50 vs SMA 200.
Comment:
Straight meltdown, should terminate around our target point $240. Could extend to $220 area.
Trade active:
Once again, confirmed straight down. Futures down -1.9% at time of writing. One more day, and it's not only a confirmed bear, but algorithms should start HEAVY dumping. Death cross has already been achieved, and dumping has begun.
Comment:
Possibly repositioning to even more aggressive plays. Will see how today closes, and most especially - volume. In today's era, algos decide the future.
Comment:
Target still holding at $240. We are nearing our mid-wave bounce. Friday? Monday? Tuesday? Hard to pinpoint. Will return with further analysis with today's data.
Comment:
Potential Bounce zone, wouldn't try to play on it. Risk/Reward is terrible. Good potential entry point. Further estimates and days will be updated as approached.
Potential Bounce zone, wouldn't try to play on it. Risk/Reward is terrible. Good potential entry point. Further estimates and days will be updated as approached.
Comment:
Today should end about .5% up.
Today should end about .5% up.
Comment:
$268 should hold today...
Comment:
Comment:
You can tell the Bulls are holding their last stand, which should dry before lunch. This is the most critical moment of all.
Comment:
That Apple case sure isn't helping either, neither is almost anything actually.
Comment:
At this point, one more negative news will tip this thing over the edge. We're still bouncing off -.25%,+.25% the market is tense.
Comment:
Finally broke out of that channel. Can't say for sure if it's "on" yet, but looks like the bulls are finally easing off... Volume speaks hesitation for both sides. If the bears can drag this over 260, it's a free fall. "Micro-support" at 262/260/258 zone, nothing notable beyond that until 240.
Comment:
Another channel lock... .7%-.9%. Bears still have a few small hurdles to maul through yet. Huge knife plunge in futures over the weekend confirmed hedge funds/algos have begun pulling out of the market.
Comment:
If 258 is broken today, might go low as 250...
Comment:
Just a reminder, we still have the Fed on the 19th. I am nearly 100% sure they will increase rates, but possibly delay any further increases. That may stand as a critical pivot point for the market.
Comment:
If you're still not yet convinced of a bear market, I would at least straddle the next two weeks. Volatility is a given during the holidays, and that Fed interest hike is not yet "priced-in" in the market's mind. Many believe the last few rough weeks are the result of recent events, but there are many more who are not yet convinced.
Comment:
The storm that is China-U.S. relations will only continue to tighten, and North Korea is re-escalating as an issue. Early rumors of a failed treaty have already begun spinning in South Korean tabloids, and satellite images have caught the North Korean military once again ramping up their rocket production.
Not a lot of legs are left holding this end-stage bull market, and rather the Fed or Trump himself will be the end of it.
Not a lot of legs are left holding this end-stage bull market, and rather the Fed or Trump himself will be the end of it.
Comment:
Lunch hours are hitting now, and around 2pm, hell will break loose or we will have a decent reversal. Goodluck everyone
Comment:
Perfect timing. Lunch hits, we drop another .5%. 260 Broken. One last one at 258 before the freefall. Might potentially reverse on it after lunch. Waiting to see, closed positions for 12/12 and repositioned to 12/14.
Comment:
5th wave terminated. Should retrace to 262 levels, then should swoop down again. Exited short term positions, possible run-up during post-lunch/power hour. Will buy in again at 261-262 levels. Tomorrow or Wednesday should be one small green day, which is possibly the last chance to ride this one down.
Trade closed: target reached:
Short-term target of $259 reached, aggressive positions (12/12, 12/14) closed.
Trade active:
Mid-term target of $240 still active, set for 12/28 & 1/24. Slow ride up for the next few hours, and due to potential green tomorrow, short-term exited.
Comment:
We saw the 258-259 zone reversal, and this should hold until 267.5 roughly - if this resistance breaks, sustained bull zone. Elsewise, we should begin our wave 3 after these last tumultuous corrections. The Fed rate hike is still looming.
Trade closed: target reached:
Short-term target reached.
Yes, there is more room for lower.
Yes, wave counts show it can drop as low as 2330/2270.
But I'll be repeating my profits today, and giving myself a nice day out. I would advise you to do the same. There is a chance for a wave 4 (likely simple correction) beginning today, and I would like to enjoy my Christmas without any worries.
Happy holidays everyone!
Yes, there is more room for lower.
Yes, wave counts show it can drop as low as 2330/2270.
But I'll be repeating my profits today, and giving myself a nice day out. I would advise you to do the same. There is a chance for a wave 4 (likely simple correction) beginning today, and I would like to enjoy my Christmas without any worries.
Happy holidays everyone!
Expect hell on Thursday, ladies and gents.