Put simply, the stock market compounds and thus should follow a compounding curve in the long term. I've set a parabola to the historical lows and find that 2018 has corrected to this curve nicely. RSI is also shown and compares 2018 values to historic readings at this level. While it is true that both the 2000 and 2008 crashes had RSI values similar today (makes sense as the market was selling hard), in most cases RSI at these levels on the weekly chart suggests a relative low. I set a trade window showing a 5% stop and a 32% potential gain should the market respect the long term compounding curve and bulls move in to buy again. As a third analysis I generated smaller parabolas representing cycle's within the long term cycle (a fractal-esque phenomenon). Extrapolating that to the current FED induced bull market I truly believe that SPY tops at $500 in 2022 before the next major crash occurs.