On Friday (7/6/18) I tried to short it at the 61.8% Fib with the assumption that it will reverse from there. I was a bit shocked by the rally that pushed this beyond the 61.8%. After evaluating the daily chart
, I think we're heading for a test of the 78.6%, and potentially overextend the wave to fill the gap above, which is at the resistance. The Wave C down should break SPY
out of the consolidation into a downtrend, assuming it length of the wave is 100% of Wave A.
My plan is to scale into Puts at the 78.6% line, and reach 100% of my position at the resistance (278 area) and hold for wave C down.