On Friday (7/6/18) I tried to short it at the 61.8% Fib with the assumption that it will reverse from there. I was a bit shocked by the rally that pushed this beyond the 61.8%. After evaluating the daily chart, I think we're heading for a test of the 78.6%, and potentially overextend the wave to fill the gap above, which is at the resistance. The Wave C down should break SPY out of the consolidation into a downtrend, assuming it length of the wave is 100% of Wave A.
My plan is to scale into Puts at the 78.6% line, and reach 100% of my position at the resistance (278 area) and hold for wave C down.
My plan is to scale into Puts at the 78.6% line, and reach 100% of my position at the resistance (278 area) and hold for wave C down.
Comment:
7/11/18 - Back under the resistance, pulled back to the 24% fib. I still believe there are more downside coming this week to finish this wave down. We should find out tomorrow.
So far, it is moving according to my setup. Still holding Puts.
So far, it is moving according to my setup. Still holding Puts.
Now If my count is correct, we should see a reversal as soon as tonight/tomorrow.